MLB Best Bets: Expect Another High-Scoring Affair in Cardinals-Reds Game
We have been on a roll lately betting on the over, and we’re going to try it again Tuesday night at Great American Ballpark.
It’s a big number tonight for the Cardinals vs. the Reds, all the way up at 10.5, but we aren’t going to shy away.
Games at Great American have averaged 10.2 runs per game this season, and there’s no reason to think this one won’t be another high-scoring affair. Monday night’s contest ended with a run total of 11 as the Reds edged the Cardinals, 6-5.
St. Louis came to town as one of the hottest offenses in baseball, averaging a whopping 7.5 runs per game across the last week (first) and 6.35 runs per game for the month of May -- second only to the Rangers. Cincinnati has averaged four runs per game for the month of May.
Graham Ashcraft gets the start at home for the Reds, and after a strong start to the season, he has come crashing down to earth with an ERA of 9.33 and two losses in the month of May. The Cardinals should find some success.
Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cards. The veteran righty hasn’t looked himself since returning from injury with an ERA of 5.75. His xERA is even worse, all the way up at 8.44. His expected batting average and slugging percentage are both in the bottom 1% of the league.
For the season, both bullpens are nearly identical and middle of the pack.
St. Louis and Cincinnati have both gone over their run totals 52.2% of the time this season (25-22).
I’m not overcomplicating this one. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar and Jonathan India should all remain hot. Let’s root for runs.
If you’re looking for plus money, take a look at Cincinnati (+125) as the home dogs.
The Bets: Over 10.5 runs -105 | Reds ML +125
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