MLB Best Bets: Rangers on a Roll
The Rangers host the AL West-rival Angels Monday night in Arlington, and we are grabbing the value for the home team on the run line.
Not only is Texas averaging the most runs per game in MLB this year (6.25) and 6.00 runs per game in June, they absolutely mash lefties with an .826 OPS (third), .298 batting average (fifth), and .462 SLG (fourth). That’s not great news for Tyler Anderson, who gets the start for the Halos.
Anderson has a 5.62 ERA this season and he has allowed 10 earned runs across his last two starts (nine innings). Batters are hitting .300 or better vs. his fastball, changeup and sinker and .254 vs. his cutter. It’s unlikely Anderson will emerge from this one unscathed. Look for Josh Jung to have success tonight as he’s batting .317 with five homers vs. lefties this season. Corey Seager is hitting .364 this year with three homers vs. southpaws.
Dane Dunning gets the start for Texas, and although he doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs, he has pitched to a 2.52 ERA this year, and he didn’t allow a run in five innings pitched vs. the Angels in May. The Angels have averaged 4.84 runs per game this year and 4.40 runs per game in June, and the Rangers bullpen is certainly a major weak spot for Texas. Though a lineup with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- both of whom have good career numbers vs. Dunning -- should never be counted out, it’s likely won’t be enough vs. a Texas team that has averaged 10 runs per game across three contests vs. the Angels this season.
Here are some more trends to note:
Texas leads the league with a 64.1% rate covering the run line (41-23). They have also covered the run line 63.6% of the time as the home favorite (14-8).
Game totals have also gone over a league-leading 59.7% of the time for Texas (37-25-2), while the Angels have gone over 50.8% of the time (32-31-4).
Two of the three Rangers-Angels games in the series in May went over the listed total tonight of 9.5.
Games at Globe Life Fields are averaging 10.83 runs this season.
Give me the plus money for the Rangers to cover the run line, and I’ll play a unit on the over. I’ll be avoiding both pitchers for DFS, but I’ll be happily stacking hitters.
