MLB Best Bet: Giants Will Come Up Big as Home Underdogs
We aren't betting on the Reds today, but only because they aren’t playing–
Congratulations to those who have been betting with us and riding the hot streak for Cincinnati. They covered the run line as we predicted and made it 11 in a row yesterday. They deserve a day off.
For Thursday’s bet, we are going to pivot to the NL West and pick the home underdog Giants at +100.
Why?
Because we have no idea which version of Blake Snell we are going to get for the Padres. Will it be good Blake Snell? Or will it be the very, very, terribly bad Blake Snell? I’ve seen enough of the latter to take the plus money when I get the chance.
Snell has pitched to an ERA of 3.48 this season with an xERA of 4.55. He has been excellent in June with an ERA of 0.47 and he has only allowed two earned runs since May 25. The thing is: I don’t buy it. He is still issuing way too many free passes and he’s facing a Giants team that has scored 44% of their runs via home run (seventh in MLB).
Add to that a middling Padres offense that is scoring 4.61 runs per game in June, and I don’t have high hopes for San Diego on the road. Yes, the Padres are good vs. lefties, but San Francisco has scored the second-most runs per game during the month of June (6.35) and its bullpen has the second-lowest ERA (2.21).
Here are some more simple trends:
- The Giants are 41-32 this season.
- The Padres are 35-38.
- The Giants are 20-17 at home,
- The Padres are 16-18 on the road.
The Giants won last night. Let’s back them again at home behind veteran Alex Wood for even money.
The Bet: Giants ML +100
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