MLB Best Bets: Reds Streak Ends and a Pair of Plus-Money Props
Yes, the Reds are back in action Friday, but I have a feeling the win streak stops here. They should be outmatched by the Braves, who have a better starter in AJ Smith-Shawver and a lineup that has scored more runs per game than any other team in June (6.78). The Braves also have the lowest bullpen ERA in June (2.04), and it would be hard to bet against them. There isn’t much value on the Braves ML (-155), but it’s even money if they cover the run line. It’s hard not to bet on the Reds, but I am backing the Braves tonight.
Plus-money props
Now, let’s continue with our theme from last Friday by targeting two plus-money K props for tonight’s action.
One of our plus-money props hit last week (Bryan Woo), while the other did not cash (Rich Hill). Fortunately, the over bet on Woo’s K total paid +120, so we made a small profit playing both.
Today’s bets are equally risky. They are heavily juiced to the other side, but let’s live a little!
First, let’s ;look at Shane Bieber’s strikeout prop in the Brewers-Indians game. If you want to play to the over, the payout is -140. Bieber has gone over this mark three times this season, and all were vs. high K% teams. The Brewers certainly qualify as another one of those teams.
But here’s why I like the under: He’s gone over this mark three times, but he has gone under 12 times. Yes, 12. Bieber is a very good pitcher, but he doesn’t do it via a ton of punch-outs. Bieber’s K rate is only 6.54 per nine innings. My fantasy team hopes I am wrong about this, but I’m riding with the under for the value -- even vs. a very high K% Brewers club.
It’s Patrick Corbin Day, but I couldn’t find any value in Corbin or any Nationals props -– until I looked to the other side of this game.
Guess which major league team has struck out at the lowest clip this season?
The Nationals.
I know it sounds crazy, but it’s true. The Nationals have struck out only 18.5% of the time this year, and they are the only MLB team striking out less than 19%. That’s impressive.
Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove (an excellent pitcher like Bieber) is striking batters out at a rate of only eight per nine innings. He logged only one K in his last outing vs. the Rays, and he’s only worked into the sixth inning twice this year. He’s exceeded this prop seven times this year, so the over is heavily juiced at -175. Let’s zag while the others zig and grab some value with the under.
