MLB Best Bet: Guardians to Cover Against Team With the Worst Run-Line Record in Baseball
We’re looking at a plus money payout for the Guardians (42-43) to cover the run line Thursday vs. the Royals (25-61), who are in last place in the AL Central. .
Not only do the Royals have the worst record in the division, they have the second-worst record in the MLB. Across the past two weeks, Kansas City has struggled offensively, scoring a mere 3.93 runs per game, while their bullpen has a 6.14 ERA.
Getting the start for the Royals will be Jordan Lyles, whose 6.68 ERA is among the worst in the league for qualified starters. Statcast says his xERA is 4.96, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky, but an ERA of nearly five isn’t much more encouraging for Kansas City. Lyles has a barrel rate, strikeout rate and whiff rate in the bottom 13% of the league. Not only that, but his fastball is clocking in at a career-low 91.2 mph. His home/road splits also favor the Guardians: Lyles’s ERA when not at home this season is 8.02. The Guardians have been scoring 4.72 runs per game across the last two weeks of play (13th) and should be able to score more than a few at home tonight between Lyles and the struggling Kansas City bullpen.
Tanner Bibee gets the start for the Guardians, and the rookie righty has continued to impress; his 3.41 ERA matches his xERA, according to statcast. Bibee is even better when at home this year, with a 2.48 ERA when pitching at Progressive Field. He should be able to handle the sluggish Kansas City bats before the Guardians bullpen takes over. The Guardians’ bullpen has an ERA of 3.38 across the past two weeks of play -- the eighth-best mark in the league -- and should be able to close this one out.
Kansas City has covered the run line a league-worst 39.4% of the time this season, so let’s bet on the Guardians to cover the run line at home for plus money tonight.
The Bet: CLE -1.5 (+115)
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