MLB Best Bet: World Series Champs Are Home Dogs? Sounds Like a Good Value
It’s a Lone Star series Monday night in Houston as the first-place AL West Rangers look to hold onto their three-game lead over the second-place Astros.
The Astros lead the season series 4-3, and are listed as the home dogs tonight. So, of course, we have to take that value.
The Astros have been worse at home than away this season, winning only 53% of home games in 2023 (25-22). However, it’s hard to go away from the reigning World Series champs when you can get even money -- especially when there’s a possibility that Yordan Alvarez will return to the lineup tonight. If Alvarez does return, I expect this line to move, so try to grab the value early.
Brandon Bielak gets the start for the Astros. The young righty has given up just two earned runs and seven hits across his last 18 2/3 innings; however, this Rangers lineup could certainly get to him as they are the top scoring team in MLB this season.
Jon Gray gets the start for the Rangers. The last time Gray faced the Astros, he allowed seven hits and five earned runs. Gray is the superior pitcher, but he is not bullet-proof. Both teams should be able to put up some offense in this game.
Neither bullpen has been stellar of late, but for the season, the Astros bullpen has been one of the top-five in the league (3.86 ERA), while the Rangers bullpen has been among the very worst (4.74 ERA).
Throw in the fact that the Rangers will be playing without star shortstop Corey Seager, and we’ll back the underdogs who always play better vs. teams with a better than .500 record. The Astros will be looking to make up ground quickly tonight, and Kyle Tucker has been swinging a hot bat.
The Bet: Astros ML +100
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