NFL Week 1 Odds and Best Bets
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Here are our best bets and picks for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Jen Piacenti: Jaguars -3.5
The Jaguars finished the 2022 season winning six of their last seven games, earning a playoff berth and winning the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence should take yet another step forward in his third year in the NFL and second year under head coach Doug Pederson. He’s not lacking for any weapons, gaining wide receiver Calvin Ridley and rookie running back Tank Bigsby, too. Meanwhile, Indianapolis will go to battle with a rookie QB who isn’t known for his passing ability, a few mediocre pass-catchers and a backup running back. Everything is new in Indianapolis and there will be growing pains until things settle down for the Colts. Jonathan Taylor will be missed and Anthony Richardson will make a few impressive plays, but the Jaguars will win this one by more than a field goal.
Kyle Wood: Falcons -3.5
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is making his first career NFL start Sunday against a Falcons team that went 6–3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium a season ago. Atlanta should get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2023 with David Onyemata and Calais Campbell joining Grady Jarrett up front. And if Carolina’s preseason performance is any indication, the offensive line may struggle to keep a clean pocket for the No. 1 pick. Desmond Ridder is far from a seasoned veteran, but the second-year pro got four starts under his belt as a rookie. He also has three talented pass-catchers to target in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, which is more than Young can say. Trust in the Falcons to cover at home.
Michael Fabiano: Steelers +2.5
This looks like the sucker bet of all sucker bets, and I’m not falling for it. I’m on record saying Kenny Pickett is my sleeper fantasy quarterback, and while I’m not starting him in traditional leagues because of the matchup, I think he opens the season with a big win. That’s right, I’m going with the Steelers to beat the Niners outright. Why? Because weird stuff happens all the time, and what would be more weird than the 49ers losing in Week 1 to a team that was basically a .500 squad last season? Let’s waive those Terrible Towels!
Craig Ellenport: 49ers -2.5
I get that everyone’s feeling all giddy about Steelers second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, but let’s take a step back. This is still a leading Super Bowl contender against a team that failed to make the playoffs last year. And as for Pickett? He better show some improvement. In 12 starts last year, Pittsburgh scored 30 points in one contest (a loss) but the team averaged 16 points in the other 11 games. As for the 49ers, Brock Purdy was 5-0 in the regular season – and the team’s average margin of victory in those games was 16 points. The Steelers have been a preseason darling, which is probably why this spread isn’t bigger. Grab the Niners.
Gilberto Manzano: Buccaneers +6.5
Sure, the Buccaneers might not win many games in their first season without Tom Brady, but they’ll at least be competitive with a roster filled with former Super Bowl champions and Pro Bowlers. With wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, new quarterback Baker Mayfield could have plenty of success against a Vikings secondary that was atrocious for most of 2022. The Buccaneers don’t have issues with their secondary, a group that features cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III, and safeties Ryan Neal and Antoine Winfield Jr. That depth could pay off versus Vikings wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Conor Orr: Vikings -6.5
Even though they're surrendering 6.5 points to the Buccaneers, I think this Vikings team is keeping a lid on an offensive evolution that can knife an undermanned Buccaneers squad in the opener. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evand and Rachaad White aren't going to provide enough firepower to keep them in the game.
Matt Verderame: Packers +1.5
The Packers are getting points against the Bears? Sign me up. Matt LaFleur is a proven coach who in his career has an 8-0 record when facing Chicago. While Jordan Love is only making his second career start, he’s surrounded by a terrific rushing attack and a host of young pass-catchers. While the Bears might be able to cover, their front is going to have a tough time slowing down the tandem of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones.
Bill Enright: Ravens -9.5
The biggest favorites in Week 1 are laying 9.5 to the Texans but the number should be closer to 13. Houston’s rookie passer, C.J. Stroud, is in for a rude awakening against a Ravens defense that tied for the fifth most sacks (48) in 2022. A healthy (and paid) Lamar Jackson combined with a rejuvenated receiving corps and new/aggressive offensive coordinator in Todd Monken will result in the Ravens lighting up the scoreboard while their defense stifles the Texans offense in front of the home crowd at M&T Bank Stadium.
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