Survivor Contest Misery & 78,000/1 Payout Highlights Week 3 NFL Betting
On Monday, sportsbooks around the country reported their best result over sports bettors of the early 2023 NFL season thanks to several shocking upsets that destroyed the majority of parlays and teasers wagers.
In the world of NFL football, the phrase "Any Given Sunday" is used to describe that on any given Sunday, any team can be beaten. In Week 3, NFL bettors were painfully reminded that despite a team being favored to win, it doesn't mean they will.
The Jaguars, Cowboys and Ravens, who entered Week 3 with a combined record of 5-1, all suffered shocking defeats drastically shrinking Survivor pools across the country.
Being eliminated from Survivor pools due to a full-back, not known for speed or return skills, taking a kickoff return the distance is simply gut-wrenching.
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On Sunday, the Jaguars, who were a highly popular Survivor pick, closed to within seven points of the Texans after back-to-back scoring drives in the second half. Following a Jacksonville field goal, Houston's Andrew Beck stepped in front of returner Mike Boone. After initially fumbling the ball, Beck regained possession and then proceeded to break five tackles en route to rumbling down the far sideline for an 86-yard touchdown. The fifth-year blocking back, who has gained only 28 total yards in 41 career games, delivered the ultimate knockout blow to those who selected Jacksonville.
Betting Landscape
Through the first three weeks of the 2023 season bettors continue to witness home field be non-factor in the outcome of games, making against the spread (ATS) wagering heavily skewed in favor of the visiting clubs. Thus far, road teams own a slight 26-22 SU (52%) edge while remarkably posting a profitable 30-17-1 (ATS) (63.8%) mark.
Grabbing the points was a lucrative way to invest in 2022 as underdogs finished with a lucrative 151-124-9 against the spread (ATS) (54.9%) mark. Through three weeks of the 2023 season, bettors continue to see that trend in 2023 as underdogs own a 26-21-1 ATS (55.3%) record.
In Week 3, games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 11-5 mark to the under. On the year, unders own a small lead with a mark of 26-22 (52%).
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Bad Beats
Saints Miss GW Late FG, Blow 17-point Lead
Green Bay, who opened as 3-point home favorites, flipped to 1.5-point underdogs prior to kickoff thanks to heavy steam by both the public and sharp bettors. After Derek Carr went out with a shoulder injury, New Orleans fell apart on both sides of the ball. Jordan Love and the Packers scored 18 unanswered points over the final 11 minutes of the game, earning a 18-17 victory. Saints rookie placekicker Blake Grupe, who was previously 6-6 on fields this season, missed a 46-yard attempt with 1:05 remaining that would have given the Saints the lead.
Steelers' Jaylen Warren Delivers Bad Beat To Prop Bettors Attempting To Run Out Clock
Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren pre-game rushing-plus-receiving yards player proposition betting mark was 52.5. Up 23-18 and only 1:53 remaining in the game, the Steelers attempted to run out the clock. With 52 total yards, Pittsburgh handed the ball off to Warren on second down, gaining one yard. After gaining the necessary yardage, the second-year back was handed the ball again on third down. The Raiders, fully expecting a run, blew up the play in the backfield dropping Warren for a one-yard loss. The versatile back would never touch the ball again finishing with 52 total yards, a half-yard shy of his betting demand.
Arizona Cardinals receiver Marquise Brown celebrates with teammate James Conner during shocking upset over the Dallas Cowboys at State Farm Stadium in Glendale.
Joe Rondone-USA TODAY Sports
Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors
71% on of money on Dallas (-11.5)
- The largest road favorite gets upset as the Cardinals earn a shocking 28-16 win.
91% of money on Over Chargers / Vikings (53.5)
- The game with the highest scoring total on the board falls just shy of the betting demand, landing on 52 points.
67% of money on Titans (+3.5)
- Browns dominate Derrick Henry and the Titans, 27-3.
72% of money on Raiders (-3)
- Las Vegas gets upset at home by Kenny Pickett and the Steelers, 23-18.
Sunday Night Football Player Prop Wager Hits At Odds of 78,000/1
One bettor, named @ChillyBets placed a $45 player proposition bet structured upon Steelers’ running back Jaylen Warren and wideout Calvin Austin III exceeding expectations and it resulted in a major score. While Austin needed to stay under 2.5 receptions, he needed to exceed his alternative receiving yards market of 70-plus yards. The rookie wideout finishes with two catches for 72 yards buoyed on the strength of a 72 yard touchdown in the first quarter. Warren, who needed to surpass 2.5 receptions and 18.5 receiving yards, finished with three catches for 23 yards. The $45 investment returned a total of $35,278.
A Five-Figure Payout off a $10 Anytime Touchdown Investment
One bettor placed a $10 player prop Anytime touchdown parlay wager that both Saints tight end Jimmy Graham at odds of +5000 and Texans tight end Brevin Jordan at odds of +2000 would both score at least once in their respective games on Sunday. When they both found the end zone, the $10 investment returned an incredible $10,700.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 3, Survivor Pool contestants at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas heavily used Jacksonville (-7.5) over Houston, Kansas City(-12.5) over Chicago, Baltimore (-7.5) over Indianapolis and Dallas (-11.5) over Arizona.
The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 3 of the NFL season, the Jaguars, Chiefs, Ravens and Cowboys massively made up 78.9% of the selections in the $9.3 million contest.
While the Chiefs earned an easy home win, the Jaguars, Ravens and Cowboys losing knocked out 58.0% of the pool after all three powerful clubs were upset.
Look-Ahead
Here are four games that will likely be heavily selected by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 4.
San Francisco (-14) vs Arizona
Philadelphia (-7.5) vs Washington
Kansas City (-9.5) at NY Jets (SNF)
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
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