NFL Week 15 Player Props: Pair of Plays for Tony Pollard
After a full day of NFL games on Saturday, Sunday will pick up at 1:00 ET with another full day of football to keep us on the edge of our seats until well after dark.
I love this time of year!
If you want to get in on the action, here are a few early player prop values worth considering.
We’ve even got plus-money action for all time slots on Sunday...
Bijan Robinson anytime TD (+125)
No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Panthers, who have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns for a total of 21 to the position this season. That’s bonkers. Surely even Arthur Smith realizes this is a good opportunity to use his first-round draft pick to run up the score. Robinson has only four touchdowns this year, but those four scores have come in the last six games played.
Tony Pollard has been used as a receiver out of the backfield more in the last few games.
Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports
Tony Pollard over 3.5 receptions (+105)
Tony Pollard over 22.5 receiving yards (-110)
I like this catch prop for the attractive payout. Across the past four games, Pollard has been targeted 23 times, and he has exceeded this catch prop in three of them. The Bills have allowed an average of 5.6 catches per game to running backs this season along with a 76% catch rate. The receiving prop is also a good one as the Bills have allowed an average of 46 receiving yards per game to opposing runners. Pollard has cleared this mark in two of the last four.
Puka Nacua over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
Nacua has the chance to break Justin Jefferson’s rookie receiving record. All he needs is 288 yards across the next four contests. That’s about 75 yards per game, and this week is a good time to take advantage of a weak Commanders’ secondary if you’re the Rams and also help Nacua have the chance to set a new record. Nacua is averaging 85.6 yards per game this season -- more than Ja’Marr Chase while his 9.8 targets per game are tied with Chase for ninth in the NFL. No defense has allowed more receiving yards to wideouts this year than the Commanders, who are allowing an average of 198 yards per game to the position. Even if Cooper Kupp has a big day, there’s plenty to go around.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140)
I love this payout for Lamar to toss a pair of scores vs. a Jacksonville team that has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns this season. The 22 touchdowns allowed equate to 1.7 per game, and as the Jaguars have only allowed five touchdowns this season to running backs, I like Lamar to be the one to score. Of course, he could also punch one in himself as the Jaguars have allowed five rushing TDs this year to quarterbacks, but even a rushing touchdown doesn’t exclude him from scoring two through the air. Jackson has exceeded this passing TD prop in two of his last three, and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 7. For +140, I’m willing to take the bet.
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