Fantasy football scribes tend to overrate players in preseason
Ask any fantasy football writer what he hates most in life, and you'll get one of two answers:
At times the task of producing all those projections and rankings causes us to lose track of the big picture. For example, no matter how many 1,000 yard rushers I project for the upcoming season, one of my colleagues will invariably say "How could you possibly
The truth of the matter is that most human prognosticators tend to overrate players; the first cut of any RB projection usually has a total of over 20 1,000-yard rushers. But that's only natural... most of us only want to look at the bright side of life (apologies to
The results may be a little surprising to you:
For you math geeks, the projections for 2009 are derived from a simple linear trend; for everyone else, the projections were made by a computer that's much smarter than you, so take them at face value and don't scratch your heads too much.
Note some of the surprising results and their implications:
What can we take away from all this? I mean, besides the fact that I seem to enjoy numerical analysis and have way too much time on my hands?
The first thing is to look at any player projections that are presented and do some quick math; are there 20-25 1,000-yard rushers listed? After the top 17 or so, drop the remaining players proportionately below the millennium mark; odds are that they were the result of wishful thinking. Same principle applies to the receivers: if you see a greater number of 1,000-yard receivers than last season, odds are that they'll be one or two fewer than last year's total.
As for the passers, we
Oh, in case you were wondering, we pulled out
Sometimes, it really does pay to step back and see the forest as opposed to counting each tree.