Fantasy baseball mailbag
Your first reaction is likely that Bob has lost his mind from hitting the hookah pipe too often with
Greinke: 1-8, 4.05 ERA, 66 Ks, 1.30 WHIP
Myers: 4-3, 3.01 ERA, 65 Ks, 1.39 WHIP
I know it is insane to think it, let alone write it, but to this point of the season Myers has been a more valuable fantasy performer than Greinke. Amazing indeed. At the same time I would have to be totally cracked to suggest moving Greinke for Myers.
Myers has done a great job keeping his career long bugaboo -- the homer -- in check. In fact, he has done too good a job. His career HR/9 mark is 1.31 and every year since 2004 the number has been at least 1.18. This season his rate is 0.67 which is almost exactly 50 percent of his career level. If you believe that is going to continue -- insert witty comment here (I was too lazy to come up with one myself). In addition, the majority of his work this season has been dead on his career levels despite the fact that his current ERA is 1.30 runs below his career rate of 4.31.
2010: 7.25 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB, 20.4 LD-rate, .275 BAA
Career: 7.48 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 1.48 GB/FB, 20.5 LD-rate, .263 BAA
Add in the fact that Myers has thrown more than 75 innings just once in the past three seasons, and you have to have some serious reservations about his ability to keep his ERA this low the rest of the way.
Greinke has been a disaster if you look at his win-loss record, but you know by now that judging a pitcher based on his W-L record is about as wise as thinking just because
Greinke is still the superior talent and doesn't have nearly the questions that Myers does. Despite the relatively even performance of the two so far I'd still take Greinke 99.3 percent of the time in this matchup.
Furcal was on fire in '08, hitting .357 with five homers, eight steals and 34 runs in 36 games in '08 before back woes set in. Since then, he just hasn't been the same player. Since the start of '09 he has appeared in 184 games, hitting .275 with 10 homers, 62 RBI, 115 runs and 21 steals. Those numbers would be perfectly acceptable over the course of a season, but remember we're talking about 184 games. In addition, that total of 21 steals is a real disappointment for a man who stole at least 22 bags in every season from '00-07. Moving to just the '10 campaign, Furcal stared out hot in the steals category but he has swiped a feeble total of one bag in his last 17 games. Toss in a nearly month-long DL stint for a hamstring issue -- which certainly could be related to his back woes -- and Furcal just isn't the lock for production he once was.
Drew hasn't necessarily lived up to the expectations that came with being selected 15th overall in the '04 draft, but he is starting to carve out a very nice career for himself. In each of the last three seasons he has hit at least 12 homers with 60 RBI and 60 runs scored, and only he,
I'd prefer Drew in this scenario, especially when you toss in the caveat about OPS instead of batting average. Furcal has a career OPS of .758 and only once in the past three years has he bettered that mark. As for Drew, his career mark is only slightly higher at .774, but he has been over .830 in two of his previous four seasons and clearly owns the more powerful bat which makes him the go-to choice here.
I'm still not buying Silva and his exemplary work so far this season. I touched on him yesterday in
Floyd has been a total mystery this season. In his last eight starts he has allowed one earned run three times while being beaten around like an opponent versus
I know it sounds crazy based on where each pitcher currently sits in the four major fantasy categories for starters, but I'd still prefer Floyd to Silva for the remainder of the campaign.
Let me dust off the old crystal ball.
The truth is I have no idea when/if the Nationals will remove Capps from the closer's role, or when/if they will trade him. That doesn't mean I'm going to turn a blind eye to an unforeseeable future though since concerns are clearly warranted with Capps.
First off, Capps got the dreaded vote of confidence from team management, and that always seems to mean a guy is about ready to get hosed.
Second, Capps' performance just hasn't been very good of late. In his last eight appearances he has three saves but he has two loses and four blown saves as his ERA has shot up from 2.01 to 3.49. We aren't just talking about a couple of innings of poor work either. Here are his numbers since the calendar flipped to May: 6.00 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over 15 innings. There are some positives like his K/9 mark of 8.26 being a career best, that his 3.71 K/BB mark is a strong total, and that his current BABIP mark of .365 is way too high for a guy who owns a .305 mark in his career. Still, this is a results driven business, and the bottom line is that he hasn't been delivering the wins like he did early in the season.
Third, there is the presence of the closer of the future,
Fourth, you don't want to forget about
Should you bail on Capps? Considering the premium that is placed on saves, I don't think dumping Capps right now makes sense. I would recommend, however, that you roster at least one of the two "backup" arms in Washington, and like I just wrote, at this point I would suggest that you grab Clippard if he is available.