The Replacements: Turnover Creates Opportunities in Patriots Passing Offense
Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI fantasy football series focused on vacated volume and projecting how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re looking at the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
- Replacing Targets: Houston Texans | Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Tennessee Titans
- Replacing Carries: Carolina Panthers | Denver Broncos | Detroit Lions | Buffalo Bills | Minnesota Vikings | Philadelphia Eagles
Bill Belichick brought Bill O’Brien back to New England to fix the passing attack. The Patriots’ aerial offense floundered last season with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in charge and quarterback Mac Jones took a considerable step back after a promising rookie campaign.
Even after the departure of Jakobi Meyers, the team’s top receiver three years in a row, there’s hope that this unit will be better in 2023. O’Brien’s return to Foxborough is chief among them. He worked under Belichick as offensive coordinator in 2011 prior to his stint as the Texans’ head coach (2014-20). Most recently, O’Brien called Alabama’s offense under Nick Saban — he briefly overlapped with Jones, a Crimson Tide product, in Tuscaloosa.
The Patriots made a few key personnel moves to offset the loss of receivers Meyers and Nelson Agholor and tight end Jonnu Smith, who was traded to the Falcons. Fresh off a Super Bowl win with the Chiefs, JuJu Smith-Schuster was signed to step in as the WR1 and Mike Gesicki came over from the Dolphins to join Hunter Henry in the tight end room.
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For what it’s worth, it’s been rumored that DeAndre Hopkins’ next home could be Gillette Stadium, but for now the former Cardinals receiver remains a free agent. He played for O’Brien in Houston from 2012-19 up until he was traded to Arizona.
New England’s 214 available targets are the sixth-most in the NFL, according to 4for4. In total, 41.4% of the team’s 2022 targets were vacated, the fourth-most in the league. That opens up a lot of opportunities for returning players, such as running back Rhamondre Stevenson, receivers DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton and Henry, the tight end. Still, a sizable share of those targets will be funneled to the newcomers.
Last season was the most pass-happy the Patriots have been since Tom Brady’s final campaign with the team in 2019. New England passed on 57.75% of its plays, the 17th-highest rate in the league. Despite that volume, it was far from an efficient attack. The unit ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ passing DVOA metric and in the bottom half of the league in passing yards (3,815) and passing touchdowns (19).
O’Brien’s return should help nudge the Patriots’ passing game back toward competency at the very least. The oddsmakers aren’t so sure it will be enough to make a massive difference as New England’s win total is set at just 7.5 (with juice on the over).
Here’s how the Patriots’ pecking order may play out.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Smith-Schuster is onto his third team in three seasons, armed with a three-year, $33-million deal. As the No. 2 option in Kansas City, he hauled in 78 of 101 targets for 933 yards but finished with just three touchdowns. Even if fantasy managers had higher hopes than a WR27 finish for Smith-Schuster, it was encouraging to see him hold up for 16 games after a shoulder injury limited him to just five games in his final season in Pittsburgh.
His average depth of target rose to 7.3 with the Chiefs, his highest since 2019, and his 6.0 yards after catch per reception was the best mark of his career. However, Smith-Schuster also matched career-highs in fumbles (three) and drops (six) in 2022.
Smith-Schuster is an ideal successor to Meyers in the slot. It’s easy to see him hovering right around 100 targets and roughly 75 receptions — he’s had a wide range of outcomes in terms of yards per catch, which peaked at 15.8 as a rookie and dipped to as low as 8.6. Where Smith-Schuster can really boost value is if he can find his way into the end zone, which was a struggle for Meyers, who scored eight times on 150 catches in the last two years.
Consistency was a concern for Smith-Schuster with the Chiefs, where he played with the best quarterback in the NFL and had 10 finishes outside the top 36 at his position and just four inside the top 10. Jones is no Patrick Mahomes, but if he decides to lean heavily on Smith-Schuster, then he could offer flex value week-to-week.
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Rhamondre Stevenson
Here’s a list of running backs who saw more targets than Stevenson in 2022: Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey. That’s the list. His 88 targets were the second-most on the team behind Meyers and he hauled in 69 of them, the fourth-most among running backs (Ekeler, McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette). That passing-game production made Stevenson, who also ran for 5.0 yards per carry on over 200 attempts, a PPR star on his way to an RB7 finish.
With Damien Harris out of the picture, Stevenson is set to carry a three-down role and should once again finish in the top 10 in touches in 2023. He seamlessly assumed a larger role as a receiver after he caught just 14 passes as a rookie. Stevenson finished top 25 in yards after catch per reception (6.9) and tied for the fourth-most broken tackles as a receiver (11) to go along with the 24 he broke as a rusher. He’s a threat in the open field and O’Brien, who comes over from an Alabama team where Jahmyr Gibbs led the team in receptions last year, will look to take full advantage of his skill set.
Mike Gesicki
It’s no guarantee that Gesicki is more involved than Henry in the receiving game this season, but he is the shiny new toy. The most likely outcome is that both tight ends have a role (remember, O’Brien was in New England in 2011, the height of the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez duo). Gesicki, though, has demonstrated a marginally higher ceiling for fantasy, which is why he’s getting the focus here.
The former Dolphin is coming off his worst season since his rookie year. Gesicki fielded only 52 targets, caught just 32 passes and tallied only 362 yards. However, he did manage to score five times despite limited involvement and all of his touchdowns came inside the red zone. The Patriots scored touchdowns on a league-worst 42% of their red zone possessions in 2022. The 6’6” Gesicki could certainly help in that regard.
Last season, Henry’s seven targets inside the 20 tied Meyers for the team lead — he scored just once on those opportunities. Gesicki could absorb some of those valuable red-zone targets and that might be what sets the two tight ends apart this season.
Henry has turned in five straight seasons of 500-plus receiving yards, something Gesicki has only done three times. However, Gesicki finished with more than 700 receiving yards in 2020 and ’21, which is more than Henry has ever recorded. The Gesicki-Henry duo might end up being more along the lines of what New England was hoping for a few years ago when Smith and Henry both signed massive deals.
Other Receivers
Second-year pro Tyquan Thornton should see an expanded role this season. He caught 22 passes on 45 targets across 13 games as a rookie and he’ll be climbing up the depth chart given the departures of Meyers and Agholor, one of the team’s premier deep threats.
Thornton will have to contend with veteran DeVante Parker for targets, though. Parker’s 539 receiving yards were second-most on the team in 2022 as he played in just 13 games in his first year in New England after spending seven in Miami. Parker, who is heading into his age-30 season, has missed 11 games over the last two years.
Kendrick Bourne is back and sixth-round rookies Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas both joined the fray but none of those three figure to hold much fantasy value.
Summary
The Patriots’ target distribution was very flat last season. Meyers led the team with fewer than 100 targets and seven players saw 40 or more passes come their way. The pecking order appears to be a bit more clear now as Smith-Schuster is set to assume the lead role, Stevenson slots in as the second option. Gesicki and Henry factor into the equation after those two and then Parker and Thornton will stretch the field. New England’s offense isn’t dripping with fantasy appeal but at RB8, Stevenson’s pass-catching upside makes him an intriguing pick while Smith-Schuster could surprise with another change of scenery and perhaps an uptick in opportunity. Both tight ends are going at extreme discounts (Gesicki at TE23, Henry at TE32) so it would be a boon if either hits. Perhaps the biggest winner here is Jones, who should return to QB2-level production with a few new weapons at his disposal and some help from O’Brien.
