2024 WM Phoenix Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Scottsdale

Our expert sees the "other" JT delivering in the desert in one of the most predictable weeks on Tour for course form.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Feb 6, 2024

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — What do Augusta National Golf Club and TPC Scottsdale have in common?

Well, the host venue for the WM Phoenix Open, along with the home of the Masters, are two of the top three most predictable courses on the PGA Tour. History repeats itself often in the desert and inside our betting preview you will see why.

A full field of 132 players and a cut to the top 65 and ties after 36-holes return to the PGA Tour thus week. The players will be competing for $8.8 million and a first-place check of $1.58 million. The WM Phoenix Open was a signature event in 2023 and as a result garnered a world-class field. In Scottsdale this week, we have 10 of the top 20 in the OWGR. Not the same as last week in Pebble Beach, but we can’t make them all elevated events.

J.T. Poston hits his tee shot on the 12th hole during the third round of the 2022 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Ariz. — Our expert has J.T. Poston at the top of his betting card.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Speaking of Pebble Beach, our trip southeast to the desert takes us to a polar opposite golf experience. Gone are the small target coastline green complexes, sea lions in the gallery, limited length off the tee and majestic Monterey scenery. The barking players hear this week will be coming from the stands and not the seals. The WM Phoenix Open is the second largest attended sporting event in the world behind the Summer Olympics. Although this crowd doesn’t represent a cross-section of the planet’s finest fans, they do love their golf.

TPC Scottsdale is a ballstrikers course. Don’t get distracted by the average winning score of 17 under par. TPC can play tough. Contenders need a careful balance between bogey avoidance, birdie or better percentage, and adrenaline. Twenty-five thousand people sitting around one hole are not to be taken lightly. Six of the last 10 winners held pre-tournament odds of +2800 or less. Nine of the last 10 champions started the week at +5000 or lower.

Eight of the last 10 winners are major champions. Seven of them are ball-speed bombers and all of them played the WMPO prior to winning. Can one of the 33 Phoenix Open rookies win in their debut campaign? Anything can happen in 2024 and already has, but if they are going to capture the king of the desert title, they will need the following successful skills for Scottsdale.

Speed is a huge factor at TPC Scottsdale. The par-5s are reachable, and 7,200 yards at 1,500-plus feet of elevation shrinks the scorecard considerably. The par-71 layout has three 5s, four 3s, and 11 4s. Par-4 scoring is extremely important as the last 10 winners have gained 11 strokes (on average) against the field on the par-4s. Each of the contenders goes low on the 5s, and as a result the par-4s give you a great chance to differentiate. The desert landscape actually widens the landing areas. If you can keep it in the green landing areas and out of the desert terrain, you can attack these holes. One analytic I love on courses like TPC Scottsdale is good drives gained. It is a measure of how small your misses are off the tee. Keep it in the fairway and rough grass and out of the rocky sand and you are capable to contend.

The approach game from long range separates everyone on Sunday afternoon. Forget the wedges from Pebble Beach, mid- to long-iron play on the par-5s and long 450-plus-yard par-4s create a gap between you and the field. That’s important to build space because this event loves extra holes. Eight of the last 16 WMPOs ended in a playoff. The greens at TPC are also an area you can take advantage of. Players consistently make putts over 15 feet at Scottsdale higher than the Tour average.

Good and average putters roll it well here. Look at your two-time defending champion. WM Phoenix Open was Scottie’s Scheffler’s best putting performance of the year! In a wild year full of longshots and crazy weather, we finally are visiting one course with a very particular history. Gone are the amateurs and secondary venues. It’s time to focus on the field and the fans. We all know there will be plenty of them cheering, and I believe they all will get behind our win, place, and show.

Win: J.T. Poston

J.T. Poston is the 12th-ranked golfer in the world according to Data Golf. Forget OWGR, Poston is hitting the ball better than nearly 99% of the PGA Tour. He has gained on approach in eight of his last 10 starts. That ballstriking combined with a top-5 putter has him performing. Dating to July, Poston has 11 top 25 finishes in 13 starts. Need scoring? He also is ranked third in this field for birdie-or-better percentage. While the rest of the betting world takes the other JT, tail me and let the postman deliver. Take JT Poston to win the WM Phoenix Open (+2800 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Jordan Spieth was T39 at Pebble Beach.
Year-to-date: 0–5, -5.00 units

Place: Byeong Hun An

In the middle outright betting tier, no player’s outright odds have dropped more than Byeong Hun An. He started the week in the mid-40s and now has the seventh shortest odds in the field! The reason An’s stock is climbing so rapidly is the off-the-tee play, par-4 scoring and recent results. Ben also has an impressive course history here with five starts, five made cuts and two top 10s. This season he's been fourth at the Sentry, runner-up at Sony and had a decent showing (T31) at Pebble Beach. Take Ben An to finish Top 20 (+130 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Winner! Eric Cole finished T14 as a top-20 bet. Year-to-date: 2–3, -0.32 units

Showdown: Adam Hadwin over Cameron Young

Adam Hadwin has a very strong record at TPC Scottsdale. He finished 10th here in 2023 and already has two top-15 finishes in four starts this year. Cam Young finished middle of the pack at the Sentry and wasn’t great last week in Monterey. Young played well in Dubai a couple of weeks ago, but gained more baggage than confidence by not closing out the win. Take Adam Hadwin over Cameron Young head-to-head. (-120 DraftKings).

Last week's result: Lost. Nicolai Hojgaard (-7) failed to beat Beau Hossler (-10) at 54-hole Pebble Beach.

Year-to-date: 3–1, +1.90 units

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.