If things are like this a month from now, I do not envy the selection committee.
This was one of the more convoluted weeks for Bubble Watch in recent memory, as the major conferences have a staggeringly large number of "name" teams sitting at either 5-4 or .500. Here's the list (just for teams in the hunt; excludes teams like Oklahoma): Boston College, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Cincinnati, Marquette, St. John's, Illinois, Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
When you try to compare groups of relatively indistinguishable teams at various levels of the bracket against teams from outside that pool (like mid-major conference champions), it's almost impossible to come up with a concrete order. Throw in more and more head-to-head matchups and there will be a lot of volatility in the next five weeks leading up to Selection Sunday.
Generally, by the time conference tournaments roll around, the picture is relatively clear. I don't think it's going to be that way this season. When a team like Michigan State, which is in complete free fall, remains a viable at-large consideration based on the merit of its entire profile, you know things are in flux. Stay tuned for what should be a wild next month as teams position themselves for a push.
RELATED:Andy Glockner: Big 12 claims two No. 1 seeds in Bracket Watch
Records listed are Division I only, per NCAA tournament selection guidelines. All RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) and SOS (Strength of Schedule) data are from Sunday's collegerpi.com RPI report.
GW = good winsBL = bad losses(N) = neutral-site game
Send your feedback to email@example.com or to @aglock on Twitter. All submissions are read; polite, fact-based ones stand the best chance of a response.
There are going to be some big bubble games down the stretch, with teams jousting for league placement and to get to at least nine league wins to give off a better impression for their profiles. Duke's quest for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs continues to be hurt by the weakness of the league this season.
SHOULD BE IN
North Carolina (17-5, 7-1; RPI: 15, SOS: 18)Larry Drew II leaves the team and freshman PG Kendall Marshall responds by dishing out 16 assists in an impressive rout of Florida State that comes on the back of a road demolition of BC. The Heels are now clearly the second-best team in the league and get a shot at No. 1 Wednesday night in Durham.GW: Kentucky, at BC?BL: at GT (by 20)
Florida State (16-7, 6-3; RPI: 57, SOS: 75)FSU got mashed at North Carolina and still has three of its next four on the road, albeit the next three are against the bottom of the league. The Seminoles should remain OK as far as inclusion, but seeding could take a hit.GW: Duke, Baylor (N)?BL: at Auburn
IN THE MIX
Boston College (15-8, 5-4; RPI: 44, SOS: 23)After getting crushed at home by UNC, the Eagles slipped past VT by a bucket for a really important home win. Can they go 4-3 down the stretch to stay above .500 in the league? With road games at Clemson, UNC and VT remaining, it will be tight. Will 8-8 be enough as their nonleague wins weaken?GW: Texas A&M (N), at Maryland?, at South Carolina?BL: Yale, Harvard?
Virginia Tech (15-7, 5-4, RPI: 65, SOS: 77)After winning at N.C. State, the Hokies had a huge week in their grasp, but missed multiple chances to steal a big win at BC and now must wait a week before Georgia Tech visits. VT has a chance to rack up wins in the next four, with a home date vs. Maryland and trips to UVa and Wake after the GT game. (With no true pelts in nonleague play, they need to.) 9-7 very well won't be enough (especially w/o a Duke win).GW: OK State (N)?, Penn State?BL: Virginia, at Georgia Tech
Maryland (15-8, 5-4; RPI: 79, SOS: 62)As mentioned to many Terps fans by e-mail: If you have to ask whether a win is a good win, it's not good enough. The rout at Penn State is the best thing Maryland has to offer as far as actual victories, and that's far short of enough after getting pounded by Duke last week. Decent team, very weak profile.GW: at Penn State (by 23)?BL: Virginia Tech (at home by 17)
Clemson (16-7, 5-4; RPI: 72, SOS: 113)The Tigers lost a dreadful game at Virginia by two and that could end up being a very large mistake. They need to create separation in the league standings to overcome an empty nonleague slate and now they're lumped in at 5-4 with half the league. This week -- home dates with BC and North Carolina -- is probably two must-wins for their NCAA hopes.GW: at College of Charleston?BL: at Virginia
Locks: Kansas, Texas
What looked like a four- or five-pack of contenders earlier in the season has quickly been whittled to two, both in the league and as far as Final Four hopefuls. It's hard to be more impressive than Texas has been over the last three weeks and now the 'Horns are done playing ranked teams. They very well could run the table and are aiming straight for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. Can KU get one, too? Very possible.
SHOULD BE IN
Texas A&M (16-5, 4-4, RPI: 33, SOS: 42)Have to demote the Aggies from lockdom after they got crushed again by Texas and then lost to Baylor, both at home. Now five of the next seven are on the road, including trips to Colorado and Texas Tech this week, so there are no guarantees this current three-game slide won't mushroom into something bigger. There's plenty of buffer with their profile, but they're not a lead-pipe lock anymore.GW: Temple (N), Washington, Missouri, Kansas State?BL: None, really
Missouri (17-5, 4-4; RPI: 30, SOS: 71)Beating Colorado at home got the Tigers back to .500, but the schedule isn't great down the stretch. Missouri could end up finishing 8-8 or 9-7, which feels a bit disappointing. The name wins they have are more name than quality at this point.GW: Vanderbilt, vs. Illinois?, Old Dominion?, Short-handed K-State?BL: None, really
IN THE MIX
Baylor (15-7, 5-4; RPI: 77, SOS: 79)Seems like 5-4 is the new black for bubbly teams looking for spring style. The Bears split a road week in unexpected fashion, losing at Oklahoma and then winning at A&M -- by far their best victory of the season. The remaining schedule is brutal, which is both what the Bears need (for marquee win chances) and what may condemn them to the NIT. Have to handle Nebraska at home before a trip to Austin.GW: at Texas A&MBL: at Iowa State (by 15), at Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (16-7, 4-5; RPI: 45, SOS: 60)The Pokes resurrected their chances by taking out Missouri (and then Oklahoma) at home. The next four will decide if those chances stay intact: at Nebraska, at Texas, vs. A&M, at Kansas.GW: Missouri, Shorthanded K-State?, Missouri State?BL: None
Kansas State (15-8, 4-5; RPI: 31, SOS: 16)Injuries, suspensions, players walking out ... you name it, K-State has had it this year. The schedule is there to get to 9-7 if the Wildcats play well. What that means is another question entirely. As Gonzaga and Washington State fade, so does anything good in KSU's resume.GW: Gonzaga (N)?, at Washington State?BL: None
Colorado (14-9, 4-5; RPI: 87, SOS: 96)The Buffaloes, losers of five of their last six, still have home shots at A&M, K-State and Texas and a trip to Kansas, so they have chances to make up ground. The Aggies and Wildcats visit Boulder this week in very big games for all parties.GW: Missouri, at Kansas State (sans Kelly)?BL: at San Francisco, at Oklahoma
Locks: Pittsburgh, Villanova, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Georgetown
Not too much has changed. The league looks a virtual certainty for eight NCAA bids and still is in the mix to get as many as 11, although I'd set the over/under at 9.5 right now. Georgetown gets bumped up to lockdom as the Hoyas probably only need one or two more wins down the stretch with all of their quality work. Syracuse likely will be back here next week, too.
SHOULD BE IN
Syracuse (20-4, 7-4; RPI: 18, SOS: 32)The Orange are pretty much set after winning at UConn and then handling a trip to South Florida. With Rutgers and DePaul left as home games, .500 in the league seems a bare minimum, which will be plenty. If they can split this week home to G'town and at Louisville, they'll get re-locked.GW: at UConn, Notre Dame, Michigan State (N)?, at St. John's?BL: Seton Hall (by 22)
West Virginia (15-7, 6-4; RPI: 17, SOS: 5)Perception-wise, finding three more league wins would help, but WVU has done a lot of good work already. The schedule left is ridiculous. Home cracks at Pitt, ND, UConn and Louisville (plus trips to 'Cuse and Pitt) mean the GW column should expand and their RPI/SOS will be great by season's end.GW: Vandy (N), at Georgetown, Purdue, Cleveland State?BL: None, really
Louisville (18-5, 7-3; RPI: 27, SOS: 40)After a tough L at G'town, the Cards avoided making a bad mistake by edging DePaul at home. The remaining schedule, starting with Wednesday's trip to ND, is very hard. Then again, 2-5 probably will be enough to dance.GW: at UConn, West Virginia, UNLV?, Butler?BL: Drexel?
IN THE MIX
St. John's (13-9, 5-5; RPI: 22, SOS: 1)Slipping past Rutgers and then losing at UCLA in the Lavin Bowl was not the greatest of statement weeks for the Red Storm. DePaul and South Florida remain at home, but can the Johnnies find enough wins elsewhere to provide the bulk to their top-end quality Ws?GW: Duke, at West Virginia, Notre Dame, GeorgetownBL: St. Bonaventure, at Fordham
Marquette (14-9, 5-5; RPI: 64, SOS: 28)Team Bubble Watch continues to trend perfectly, losing close game after close game to strong opposition. Now the schedule eases up and they'll go 5-3 or 6-2 and make the dance. Trust me on this one. I know this team better than my own kids. I'll say the same thing next week after they split a road trip to USF and G'town.GW: A trio of good home league wins (WV, ND, Syracuse)BL: None
Cincinnati (18-5, 5-5; RPI: 38, SOS: 98)It speaks to the strength of this season's Big East that Cincy's RPI/SOS have become passable after a mostly embarrassing nonleague schedule and a .500 mark in league play. The Bearcats don't have any bad Ls, but they're starting to eat too many of them. The next four games -- at DePaul, vs. St. John's and Louisville and then at Providence -- could decide their NCAAs hopes. The four left after that are brutal.GW: Xavier, at St. John's, Dayton (by 34)?BL: None
Locks: Ohio State
There are currently three teams above .500 in the league, as the extreme tops and bottoms of the conference keep munching on the trending-toward-mediocrity middle. The league looked a virtual certainty for six bids all season and now could end up with something closer to four if this continues. It's one of the less-talked-about developments of the season, honestly.
SHOULD BE IN
Purdue (18-5, 7-3; RPI: 12, SOS: 21)Played once, lost at Wisconsin in a tight one, pretty much like everyone else who plays at Kohl. The Boilermakers are going to make the NCAAs, due as much to the decay around them as anything they have accomplished themselves. Decent team, no threat to get to Houston. It is what it is.GW: None, reallyBL: None, really
Wisconsin (17-5, 7-3; RPI: 20, SOS: 43)Conversely, the Badgers beat Purdue and then crushed collapsing Michigan State at home to get into a tie for second in the league. They'll also be dancing and now are playing for seeding, which is important with Bo Ryan's lack of NCAA success against higher-seeded teams.GW: at Marquette?, Boston College (N), PurdueBL: None, really
Illinois (15-8, 5-5; RPI: 37, SOS: 25)That potentially dangerous split mentioned in last week's BW happened when the Illini lost by one at Northwestern, and now things get a bit more serious. Illinois has three home games left that seem very winnable, but with trips left to Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue, room for error is significantly diminished. The Illini's nonconference work looks better in name than in actuality.GW: UNC, Maryland (N)?, Gonzaga (N)?, plus MSU and Wisconsin at homeBL: Illinois-Chicago (N), at Indiana
Minnesota (16-7, 5-6; RPI: 27, SOS: 24)Bad week for the Gophers, who lost at Indiana and then got trucked at home by Ohio State. The advantage of a brutal opening stretch was supposed to be a winnable stretch run of games, but the Gophers are not taking advantage. Schedule remains soft, but they need to find four more wins (minimum) to feel comfortable. Remember, they're being judged without Al Nolan now.GW: North Carolina (N), West Virginia (N), PurdueBL: Virginia
IN THE MIX
Michigan State (12-10, 5-6; RPI: 50, SOS: 7)In seven years of doing this nationally, I'm not sure I recall a week where a reputedly good team did more damage to its NCAA chances. Between getting destroyed at both league bottom-feeder Iowa and Wisconsin and seeing their only good win -- Washington -- get swept at the Oregon schools, it was complete profile carnage. The Spartans plummeted out of this week's bracket and, with a brutal remaining schedule, look set to miss the NCAAs. Truly stunning.GW: Washington (N), plus Wisconsin and Minnesota at homeBL: Michigan, at Iowa
Penn State (12-10, 5-6; RPI: 68, SOS: 5)Losing at home to Michigan on Sunday after falling at Illinois is a huge blow to the Lions' NCAA chances. They have a "someone has to win" game at Michigan State next, with the loser basically on fumes. I don't know if PSU can go 5-2 against its remaining schedule, and 10 wins looks a bare minimum with two of their three good home wins decaying like they have six-hour half-lives.GW: MSU, Illinois and Wisconsin all at home in league playBL: Maine
My how things can change. Arizona and UCLA are the big winners and the Washington schools, especially the Huskies, are this week's losers. Most considered Washington to be the best team in the league. Is it now possible the profile-barren Huskies will actually miss the NCAAs?
SHOULD BE IN
Arizona (20-4, 9-2; RPI: 16, SOS: 45)Arizona's NCAA hopes got a huge boost this week from a sweep in the Bay Area (including a 3OT escape at Cal) and Washington's lost weekend in Oregon. The 'Cats have a week to prep for a trip to Tempe before hosting the Washington schools. Cal's at-large (after a 13-5 league mark) last season shows that winning the league should be more than enough for a bid.GW: None, reallyBL: at Oregon State
IN THE MIX
UCLA (15-7, 7-3; RPI: 40, SOS: 34)Big week for the Bruins, grabbing home wins over rival USC and then St. John's to add some more quality to the nonleague profile. The Bruins have, easily, the best win in the league (over BYU) and now are in second place, too, moving ahead of Washington in the pecking order. A home sweep of the Oregon schools would put them in solid position down the stretch.GW: BYU (N), St. John's?BL: Montana
Washington (15-7, 7-4; RPI: 42, SOS: 59)Uh oh. Getting swept in Oregon has dropped the Huskies to third place in the league and opened up significant scrutiny of what is a really empty profile at this point. Now two games behind Arizona, they still have to travel to Tucson. The good news: Five of the last seven Pac-10 games are at home. Washington should finish 12-6 at minimum. Would that be enough?GW: None, really (at UCLA and USC? Arizona at home?)BL: at Oregon, at Oregon State
Washington State (16-7, 6-5; RPI: 70, SOS: 103)The Cougs remain marginal after losing by 26 at Oregon and then scraping past Oregon State. Their two big nonleague Ws remain questionable at this stage and they still have to play at Arizona and Washington.GW: Gonzaga?, Baylor (N)?, WashingtonBL: None, really
E-mailers who were blasting me for keeping Florida in this category all season were focusing on the wrong team. Youthful Kentucky can't seem to win on the road (1-4 now) in league play and gets dropped a level heading into a testing week.
SHOULD BE IN
Kentucky (16-6, 4-4; RPI: 12, SOS: 10)The Wildcats are more than fine, for now, but the current .500 mark in the league and the relatively difficult schedule down the stretch gives a brief moment for pause. Unless the floor drops out, everything should be OK, but the pressure is on a bit for Tennessee's visit on Tuesday.GW: Notre Dame (N), Washington (N)?, at LouisvilleBL: None, really (at Alabama?)
Tennessee (15-8, 5-3; RPI: 21, SOS: 3)The Vols became Alabama's latest surprise victim and missed an opportunity to really consolidate their position. They still have a slew of strong wins, though, heading into a two-game trip to Kentucky and Florida. The East picture could be much clearer by this time next week.GW: Villanova (N), at Pitt, VCU (N)?, at Georgia?BL: at Charlotte, Oakland (at home), College of Charleston (at home)?
Vanderbilt (16-6, 4-4; RPI: 19, SOS: 19)Dear refs, John Jenkins doesn't airball threes. Now that we got that out of the way, Vandy is far from in the barn as far as the NCAAs but also has excellent opportunities to move up. The 'Dores still get Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky all at home (plus a trip to Lexington late in the season). The fun starts this week with league leader Alabama coming to Nashville before the Wildcats come calling.GW: North Carolina (N), Saint Mary'sBL: Arkansas
IN THE MIX
Georgia (16-6, 5-4; RPI: 36, SOS: 48)A big "Wheeeeew" week for the Bulldogs, who escaped at Arkansas by a point and then needed OT to dispatch league minnow Auburn. And now they host ... Xavier? Holy nonconference treat, Batman. The battle with the X-Men kicks off a decisive five-game stretch that includes trips to South Carolina, Vandy and Florida.GW: KentuckyBL: None
Alabama (15-7, 7-1; RPI: 97, SOS: 146)The Tide have won 10 of their last 11 games. Who cares that nine of those games were against sub-100 RPI teams? Well, OK, I do, and so will the committee. 'Bama is the auto bid again this week, but it will need more than two excellent wins to make up for an empty nonconference slate should it need an at-large. This is the poor man's version of Kentucky's 2008 NCAA run via a 12-4 SEC mark.GW: Kentucky, at TennesseeBL: Iowa (N), St. Peter's (N), at Arkansas?
The drop-off in some of the BCS leagues could be good news for the A-10, as teams jostle for position behind presumptive tourney teams Temple and Xavier. The stretch run should be good fun. Anything between two and four bids looks in play.
SHOULD BE IN
Temple (17-5, 7-2; RPI: 32, SOS: 85)The Owls won a couple more and stay on track for a bid, despite a profile that's a bit thinner than you'd expect. After a date with Fordham at home, they travel to Dayton on Saturday for a game with the still-desperate Flyers.GW: Georgetown, Maryland (N)?, Georgia (N)?BL: Cal (N)?
Xavier (16-6, 8-1; RPI: 24, SOS: 35)The X-Men lost at Charlotte in a game that featured "disgraceful officiating," according to my Xavier tweeps. My tweeps aren't extreme homers, so the refs probably weren't good, but whether losers' lament or legit gripe, the L counts and tightens things at the top of the league. This week is huge: at Georgia and at co-leader Duquesne.GW: Butler, Temple, at RichmondBL: at Miami (Ohio)?, at Charlotte
IN THE MIX
Richmond (18-6, 7-2; RPI: 75, SOS: 140)Seton Hall wasn't a top-100 team without Jeremy Hazell (and barely is now), so if you discount Richmond's win over the Pirates, the Spiders haven't beaten a top-100 team since VCU on Dec. 11. So yeah, 7-2 in the A-10 is nice, but where's the beef? They may only have two top-100 games left: at Temple and vs. Duquesne in the season finale.GW: Purdue, VCUBL: at Iona?, Georgia Tech (N), Bucknell
Duquesne (15-6, 8-1; RPI: 77, SOS: 144)The Dukes didn't get past the trip to Olean, so while the league-leading 8-1 mark looks good, that's another nick in the at-large hopes. The stretch run, starting at home vs. Xavier next Sunday, is tough.GW: TempleBL: at Robert Morris, at St. Bona?
Dayton (17-7, 5-4; RPI: 71, SOS: 84)Quelle surprise! Backs against the wall, the Flyers won twice. Now what? This week's road will be much tougher to hoe, with a trip to Rhode Island and then a visit from Temple. Sweep here and we can start talking more seriously.GW: A collection of OK ones in Ole Miss, George Mason and New MexicoBL: East Tennessee State, margin at Cincinnati (by 34), at UMass?
Locks: San Diego State, BYU
Both lock teams escaped road upsets and remain tied for the league lead at 8-1. SDSU hosts the Cougars on Feb. 26 in the rematch of BYU's win in Provo. Chances are the league will get a third team in, but UNLV would be wise to keep winning if the Rebels want that team to be them. We'll take another look at New Mexico next week should the Lobos win two more.
SHOULD BE IN
IN THE MIX
UNLV (17-6, 5-4; RPI: 28, SOS: 37)No-go on the BYU upset and the Rebels continue to wallow in fourth place. Can't overlook a trip to TCU ahead of the visit from San Diego State, which is UNLV's final regular-season chance for a marquee win. That doesn't mean the trip to Fort Collins on Feb. 19 isn't important. It could be crucial.GW: Wisconsin, Virginia Tech (N), at K-State (without Pullen/Kelly)?BL: UC Santa Barbara
Colorado State (15-7, 6-3; RPI: 48, SOS: 54)The Rams just missed getting the pelt they needed against SDSU and they may regret that miss, as they still must play at both BYU and the Aztecs, having lost to each at home already. They sneak into the bracket this week as one of the final at-larges, but really they could be replaced by several other teams.GW: at UNLVBL: Sam Houston State, vs. Hampton
It seems we're gathered here today to mourn the loss of two regular non-BCS contenders. Gonzaga appears to have done too much damage to its profile at this point to have legitimate at-large hopes after a home loss to Memphis. Butler very well may be there, too. I'm also going to knock Northern Iowa out after Lucas O'Rear's injury. The Panthers' profile isn't very good and they struggled without O'Rear this past week, including a terrible loss at Drake.
SHOULD BE IN
IN THE MIX
Saint Mary's (18-4, 8-1; RPI: 35, SOS: 129)The Gaels' regular-season title hopes may hinge on taking care of business on this three-game trip to Santa Clara, USF and San Diego. Their at-large safety net, though, will hinge on the final three of the season, all at home vs. Utah State (BracketBusters), Gonzaga and Portland.GW: St. John'sBL: None
Wichita State (19-4, 11-2; RPI: 39, SOS: 108)The Shockers have picked up two games on MO State in the past two weeks and again lead the conference, despite having lost at home to the Bears. They also get a bit of a break with O'Rear's injury weakening UNI ahead of a trip there. BracketBusters vs. VCU could end up being a de facto play-in game.GW: NoneBL: None
George Mason (19-5, 11-2; RPI: 23, SOS: 70)The Patriots have won nine in a row after pounding Hofstra and ODU this week to grab a share of the league lead. They need to stay focused this week and win at UNC-W before hosting James Madison. Depending on what you consider, GMU may have gotten a break when Northern Iowa lost O'Rear for the season ahead of the teams' BracketBusters showdown in Cedar Falls, Iowa.GW: Old DominionBL: Wofford (N)
Old Dominion (18-6, 9-4; RPI: 29, SOS: 56)Could the CAA get three teams in? It's starting to look possible after ODU, with the best nonleague work, continues to linger in third place after getting popped at league co-leader George Mason. This week sees trips to William & Mary and then the other co-leader VCU. Big game, that.GW: Clemson (N), Xavier (N), Richmond, Dayton?BL: at Delaware
VCU (19-6, 11-2; RPI: 53, SOS: 153)After a surprise loss at Northeastern, the Rams won at JMU and stay tied for first. If they can handle the Blue Hens on the road, they're set for a two-game homestand vs. ODU and GMU that could decide the league champ. Remember, VCU also is at Wichita State for BracketBusters, so they have chances.GW: UCLA (N)?, at Old DominionBL: at Georgia State, at South Florida
Utah State (22-2, 11-0; RPI: 25, SOS: 161)The Aggies now have a 4.5 game lead on the field. Why, exactly, is the WAC making them beat these also-rans again in order to guarantee an NCAA bid? If they lose the BracketBusters Elimination Challenge at Saint Mary's, people are going to look very warily at them as an at-large, should they need one. USU has played two top-100 games this season and are 0-2. Of course, the games were at G'town and BYU.GW: NoneBL: None
Missouri State (18-6, 10-3; RPI: 48, SOS: 113)Fair or not, teams in the Valley can't afford to lose at so-so teams like Evansville. Now the Bears are a game behind Wichita State again and they got a bad BracketBusters draw in a trip to Valpo (no credit for a win, serious chance of a loss). The other four games before the rematch with the Shockers are all 200+, so MO State needs to win all of those.GW: at Wichita StateBL: at Tulsa?, at Evansville
Memphis (17-6, 5-3; RPI: 46, SOS: 60)Winning at Gonzaga helped offset the loss at home to Tulsa, but Memphis is in no shape at this point to be treading water. They do have some more decent-quality games coming up, but the margin for error remains pretty thin as far as at-large hopes.GW: Miami (Fla.)?, at Gonzaga?BL: None
Butler (15-9, 7-5; RPI: 43, SOS: 29)Could the season sweep of league-leading Cleveland State keep at-large dreams alive? It doesn't seem very likely at this point, but I'll reserve final judgment for now, given the strongish computer numbers.GW: Florida State (N), Washington State (N), Cleveland State twice?BL: Evansville (without Nored), UW Milwaukee (twice)
Cleveland State (19-4, 10-3; RPI: 34, SOS: 124)Butler is a bad matchup for this CSU team and it showed again in a home loss that really weakens the Vikings' at-large hopes. Despite good numbers and a league-leading 10-3 mark, they have no good wins.GW: NoneBL: None
Gonzaga (14-9, 5-3; RPI: 73, SOS: 41)Losing at home to Memphis may be about it for the Zags' at-large hopes, despite some credible wins. They need to run the table and hope someone else nips Saint Mary's to have a chance for a piece of the league title.GW: Baylor (N)?, Marquette (N), Xavier, OK State?BL: at Santa Clara, at San Francisco
Harvard (14-4, 5-1; RPI: 51, SOS: 174)After a tough, four-point loss at league leader Princeton, the Crimson essentially kept their hopes fully intact by surviving at Penn by a point in double OT. It still probably would take a playoff loss to Princeton after running the table the rest of the way, but an Ivy at-large team is not impossible at this point.GW: at BC, Colorado?BL: None