Monday September 22nd, 2014

The Chicago Bears needed to rally from a big deficit on the road last week in primetime to earn their first victory of the season. They will try to avoid digging themselves into an early hole again when they visit the New York Jets on Monday night as 2.5-point dogs.

Chicago had gone just 2-5 against the spread in its previous seven games as a road underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, before pulling off the upset at San Francisco, spoiling the opening of Levi’s Stadium. The Bears got four touchdown passes from quarterback Jay Cutler, including three to wide receiver Brandon Marshall and three in the fourth quarter alone. The bigger surprise though was the Chicago defense forcing four turnovers from Colin Kaepernick, including three interceptions and one fumble.

Last week, New York fell to 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games against NFC North opponents in a 31-24 road loss to the Green Bay Packers. They will try to rebound at MetLife Stadium, where the team has won its past four as a home favorite. The Jets looked good early against the Packers, building a 14-0 lead in the first quarter before Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers picked them apart to push on the closing NFL odds of -7.

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In New York’s 19-14 season-opening win at home against the Oakland Raiders, the 6.5-point favorites lost the cover on a 30-yard touchdown pass by the Raiders with 1:21 remaining. The Jets were 4-1 ATS in their five home games before that one and 6-2 in their previous eight. The UNDER has cashed in in three of New York’s last four home games, but the OVER is 4-1 in the past five meetings with NFC North opponents, including last week.

The question is, will this Bears versus Jets matchup be any different? One key trend pointing toward a low-scoring game: the UNDER is 9-2 in the Bears’ last 11 road games against AFC East opponents.

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