Friday December 4th, 2015

Playoff races are starting to heat up in the NFL, and this week we’ll look to fade some overpriced favorites. It’s not easy to bet against some of the best teams in the league, but it becomes a no-brainer when lines are inflated as they are this week.

The Panthers look unstoppable right now. Carolina dismantled Dallas in front of a national audience on Thanksgiving, and most people believe they’ll walk into New Orleans and roll the Saints rather easily.

These two teams met back in Week 3 with the Saints suffering a narrow 27–22 loss in Carolina. Luke McCown was under center for New Orleans in that game, so the Saints will be confident that they can take the Panthers to the brink with Drew Brees under the helm.

The Saints are 7–3 against the spread in their last 10 games as underdogs, and with a generous line of +7.5 being offered at sportsbooks monitored by we’ll side with the home squad.

A similar scenario presents itself in Cleveland this week, where the lowly Browns play host to the Bengals. While it’s understandably nauseating to even think about wagering on the Browns, we know that we’ll get Cleveland’s best effort at home against a divisional opponent.

The favored team is just 2–13–1 against the spread in its last 16 games in this matchup, and the Bengals have notoriously played poorly on the road.

Austin Davis gets the nod under center for Cleveland, and while he’s not the most seasoned quarterback around, there is very little game tape for the Bengals to study. Grab the 10.5 points with the home team in a game where they’ll remain competitive.

Keeping with the theme of this Week 13 card, we’ll look to another home dog to pull through when the Rams host the Cardinals on Sunday.

Arizona found out just how difficult it is to win on the road in the NFC West when it scraped by the 49ers last week, and they’ll face a tough test against a Rams team that is far more talented than their record would indicate.

Similarly to the Bengals/Browns matchup above, the favored team is just 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games in this matchup according to the OddsShark NFL Database. We’ll complete the trifecta of ugly home dogs with Rams +7 this weekend.

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