NFL odds: Falcons favored as they seek NFC South revenge against Bucs

The Falcons are favored on the road on Thursday night as they take on the Buccaneers, who dealt Atlanta a message-sending Week 1 loss.

Author:
OddsShark
Publish date:
Nov 2, 2016

The Falcons (5–3) ended their two-game losing streak with a 33–32 home win over the Packers last Sunday and now travel to face the Buccaneers (3-4) as 3.5–point road favorites at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com for the Week 9 Thursday night game.

Including the victory against the Packers, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 11 straight games as favorites, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. They closed as three-point chalk versus Green Bay.

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings: Just how many good teams are there this year?

Atlanta’s previous two losses were decided by a combined five points. Quarterback Matt Ryan turned things around Sunday with an 11-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Mohamed Sanu with 31 seconds left. Ryan completed 28 of 35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns and will get a chance to avenge the team’s Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay at home. The Bucs arrived in Atlanta as 2.5-point underdogs only to upset the Falcons, 31–24.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay saw its two-game winning streak stop with a 30–24 overtime loss to the Raiders at home last week. The Bucs surrendered 513 yards to Oakland quarterback Derek Carr, who threw four touchdown passes, the last of which was a 41-yard game-winner to wide receiver Seth Roberts with 1:45 remaining in OT. The Raiders were somehow able to overcome committing an NFL-record 23 penalties for 200 yards, as Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston failed to take advantage of one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses and finished with only 180 yards and two touchdowns.

Even though Atlanta has struggled in the role of the favorite lately, the favored team has won 19 of the past 22 meetings between these NFC South rivals.

2016 NFL Re-Draft

1. Rams select Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State (Actual pick: Jared Goff, QB)

There’s a chance the Rams would have benched Case Keenum by now if they had drafted a quicker study, but there’s an equal chance Jeff Fisher would have applied his slow-and-steady approach to quarterback development on whomever Los Angeles had taken with the No. 1 pick. Six rookie QBs have played before Goff in 2016—Wentz gets the nod for elevating Philadelphia’s inferior supporting cast, which would definitely come in handy in L.A.

2. Eagles select Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State (Actual pick: Carson Wentz, QB)

Prescott is an unlikely Rookie of the Year front-runner, and his mobility, decision-making and ability to protect the ball (seven TDs against just one pick through six games) would make him an immediate fit at the helm of Doug Pederson’s offense if the Sam Bradford trade had also occurred in this alternate timeline. Wentz’s higher long-term ceiling was the only thing keeping Prescott from jumping all the way from pick No. 135 to pick No. 1, and in the wake of Wentz’s sloppy play in Week 7’s win over the Vikings, even that toss-up is no sure thing.

3. Chargers select Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State (Actual pick: Joey Bosa, DE)

Bosa has been excellent in the first three games of his holdout-shortened rookie season, but Ramsey is making an early case to be the best player to come out of the 2016 class. Almost immediately, he has stepped in against No. 1 receivers and held his own—in the past few weeks Amari Cooper and T.Y. Hilton have seen their numbers dip after a day of constant attention from the Jaguars’ top pick. San Diego could use depth in the secondary, and a Ramsey–Jason Verrett duo would be nightmare fuel for offensive coordinators for years to come.

4. Cowboys select Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (Actual pick: Ezekiel Elliott, RB)

Think the Cowboys are good with using a top-five pick on the league's leading rusher through seven weeks? Prescott is already off the board in this do-over draft, but maybe Connor Cook, the mid-round QB Jerry Jones wanted all along, will still be there when Dallas goes looking for a Tony Romo understudy who can be ready at a moment's notice.

5. Jaguars select Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State (Actual pick: Jalen Ramsey, DB)

Conklin has been the most consistent of this year’s rookie tackles, fitting right in on the nasty offensive line that has powered the Titans’ rushing attack to second in the league. The Jaguars’ run game sits 31st in total yards through seven weeks—and their pass-first offense doesn’t explain it away, as they’re managing just 3.7 yards per rush. Jacksonville was incredibly lucky Ramsey fell out of the top four in the first place; in this re-do, Dave Caldwell gets a chance to add some support for his offensive playmakers.

6. Ravens select Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss (Actual pick: Ronnie Stanley, OT)

The draft’s biggest what-if: Who would have selected Tunsil if video of the consensus top lineman smoking marijuana through a gas mask bong hadn’t hit the internet moments before the draft started? Stanley has endured a frustrating start to his rookie year, missing the past four games with a foot injury, while Tunsil has steadily come into his own at left guard clearing the way for the resurgent Dolphins.

7. 49ers select Jared Goff, QB, California (Actual pick: DeForest Buckner, DE)

Trapped on the Rams sideline at midseason, Goff is still a mystery, but a mystery would represent a significant step up from the known quantities San Francisco has played at quarterback so far this season. Buckner collected his first two sacks in Week 6, but he is also part of the cast of dozens responsible for the 49ers’ abysmal run defense.

8. Titans select Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State (Actual pick: Jack Conklin, OT)

With the benefit of hindsight, the team who picks Bosa would know how seriously the Ohio State star takes the issue of offset language in the negotiation of his rookie deal. Regardless, 16 games of production at this pace would feel like a steal for Tennessee at No. 8: Bosa has had two multi-sack games in three weeks and never stops working toward the ball.

9. Bears select Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia (Actual pick: Leonard Floyd, LB)

Floyd terrorized the Packers in Week 7 with two sacks and a forced fumble he recovered himself for a touchdown, by far the loudest statement he’s made in a quiet but promising first two months. The 1–6 Bears have plenty of holes to fill, but it’s hard to find a receiver or defensive back that has played well enough to knock Floyd from this spot.

10. Giants select Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia (Actual pick: Eli Apple, CB)

With Apple still finding his footing and Janoris Jenkins earning his splashy free-agent deal as a complement to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the Giants may prefer in hindsight to have added a little more athleticism at safety. It wouldn’t be hard to find a space for the smaller, slighter Joseph to play off Landon Collins’s bruising style in the back—Joseph has settled in quickly on an Oakland defense that has demanded plenty of its safeties so far.

11. Buccaneers select Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida (Actual pick: Vernon Hargreaves, CB)

Hargreaves has been quiet (in a good way) for the Buccaneers, who dropped him right into their starting lineup in Week 1 and kept him there. The numbers may not be there yet, but the early returns on this year’s rookie cornerback class point to few sure things at the position, and Tampa Bay won’t regret snapping up one of them.

12. Saints select Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Maryland (Actual pick: Sheldon Rankins, DT)

New Orleans is only just now getting Rankins back from injured reserve after the Louisville product suffered a broken fibula in training camp. Ngakoue doesn’t plug the interior the way Rankins is expected to when healthy, but third-round pick has gotten to the QB with regularity and overshadowed the rest of Jacksonville’s flashy defensive line in the first half. Ngakoue and Terrell Suggs are the only players to collect four sacks and an interception in the first five games of their NFL career.

13. Dolphins select Cody Whitehair, OL, Kansas State (Actual pick: Laremy Tunsil, OT)

In a world where the Dolphins don’t luck into one of the draft’s top prospects nearly midway through the first round, Whitehair is a perfectly acceptable consolation prize. He may never slide outside to tackle the way Tunsil is eventually expected to, but Jay Ajayi’s breakout has underscored the importance of sound interior line play in Miami, and Whitehair has helped stabilize that chronic problem area for the Bears, moving from guard to center admirably when preseason injuries forced some shuffling of the line in Chicago.

14. Raiders select Keanu Neal, S, Florida (Actual pick: Karl Joseph, S)

Neal has been all over the field for the Falcons, with two forced fumbles and a pair of passes defended after missing the first two weeks of the season with a knee injury. If the Raiders can’t have their first-choice safety Joseph, defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. would have no problem making use of the weapon Dan Quinn (Norton’s former colleague on the Seattle defensive staff) has deployed as Atlanta’s Kam Chancellor.

15. Browns select Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame (Actual pick: Corey Coleman, WR)

Coleman was off to a promising start through two weeks before suffering a broken hand in practice that has sidelined him ever since. Will Fuller was just as electric out of the gate for Houston, and although he’s coming out of a dreadful three-week stretch (a combined five catches for 26 yards against two of the league’s best defenses in Minnesota and Denver, plus a hamstring injury that forced him to miss Week 6), no first-year receiver has shown off a higher ceiling.

16. Lions select Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State (Actual pick: Taylor Decker, OT)

Even before the Lions lost top corner Darius Slay to a hamstring injury in Week 7, their defense was thin on the perimeter. Apple has had an equal share of solid plays and rookie learning experiences within New York’s improved defense. Sitting 28th in the league with 8.2 yards allowed per pass attempt through seven weeks, Detroit could live with a few teachable moments.

17. Falcons select Deion Jones, LB, LSU (Actual pick: Keanu Neal, S)

With their first round pick off the board, the Falcons grab their second-round pick ahead of a long line of teams in the back half of the first round who need help at linebacker. Jones’s exceptional athleticism has translated to the pros seamlessly, and he got to put it on display in taking the first of his two interceptions this season 90 yards to the house in New Orleans. He seems to make Atlanta’s entire defense faster.

18. Colts select Jatavis Brown, LB, Akron (Actual pick: Ryan Kelly, C)

Brown’s unassuming size (5’ 11”, 212 pounds) and unassuming school (Akron) knocked him down to the fifth round, but he has made evaluators look foolish with an explosive start after stepping in for Manti Te’o in San Diego. The speed that helps Brown fly to the ball and the ball-hawking skills that he uses to make something happen once he arrives—he has three sacks and two forced fumbles so far—would bring a little stability to Indianapolis’s disintegrating defense.

19. Bills select Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State (Actual pick: Shaq Lawson, DE)

The Bills are only just now easing Lawson into the defensive rotation after the Clemson product spent the first six weeks of the season on the physically unable to perform list. They have gotten surprising results at linebacker from NFL sack leader Lorenzo Alexander and team-leading tackler Zach Brown, but Rex Ryan has to have his eye on the speedy rookie that slotted right into the linebacker corps of Ryan’s prior employer.

20. Jets select Jordan Jenkins, LB, Georgia (Actual pick: Darron Lee, LB)

Next to his college teammate Leonard Floyd, Jenkins was seen as a more traditional, lower-ceiling linebacker prospect without the eye-popping athleticism that draws first-round attention. After missing two games with a calf injury, Jenkins cracked the Jets’ rotation and provided some reliability in run support they’ll sign back up for now that Lee has been stolen by a division rival.

21. Texans select DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon (Actual pick: Will Fuller, WR)

Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

The knowledge that J.J. Watt would be lost for the year after summer back surgery would probably have pulled the Texans away from their playmaker-heavy draft strategy in search of more immediate help in the trenches. Buckner and Jadeveon Clowney would make for an intimidating (if still somewhat raw) pair of rushers coming off opposite edges.

22. Redskins select Artie Burns, CB, Miami (Actual pick: Josh Doctson, WR)

Achilles issues have scuttled Doctson’s rookie year, and the list of healthy, dependable first-year wideouts to replace him in this do-over thins out quicker than anyone could have expected it would this spring. It may be best for Washington to turn its attention to the secondary, where nearly everyone has been banged up at one point or another. The Steelers’ first-round pick, Burns is tied for the team lead with four passes defended and has been taking on more responsibility week by week.

23. Vikings select Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama (Actual pick: Laquon Treadwell, WR)

The Vikings have the NFL’s best record and its worst rushing attack, while Henry is the picture of Tennessee’s embarrassment of riches in the running game. He has gotten limited work behind DeMarco Murray, but he would represent a giant upgrade over the Jerick McKinnon-Matt Asiata duo that has combined to average just 3.2 yards per carry. Treadwell is just the latest rookie to go missing in the slow-and-steady developmental approach favored by coach Mike Zimmer—at running back, the Vikings can’t be so picky.

24. Bengals select Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama (Actual pick: William Jackson III, CB)

Even if the Colts had passed on Kelly in April, someone would have taken the 2016 draft’s best center prospect in the first round. Based on the early returns in Indianapolis, he could have pushed Russell Bodine for starting duties in Cincinnati right out of the gate.

25. Steelers select Su’a Cravens, S, USC (Actual pick: Artie Burns, CB)

Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Cravens got off to a solid start in Washington, coming up with the clinching interception in the Redskins’ first win of the season over the Giants, and last weekend he returned from a concussion that cost him two weeks. He has been the versatile back-seven threat he was advertised as coming out of college, and the Steelers wouldn’t have grabbed defensive backs with their first two picks of 2016 if they thought their incumbent secondary was all set with playmakers.

26. Broncos select Cody Kessler, QB, USC (Actual pick: Paxton Lynch, QB)

Would Kessler have stood out in Denver’s crowded QB race the way he turned heads in Cleveland? He has silenced Draft Twitter’s snark in piloting a surprisingly fun Browns offense after injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown handed him the starting job, and if Kessler stays upright himself down the stretch, he’ll give whichever QB Cleveland drafts in 2017 all the rookie can handle in camp. Gary Kubiak has crafted his offense to accommodate much lesser talents at various points over the past two years.

27. Packers select WR Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State (Actual pick: Kenny Clark, DT)

Jody Nelson’s return hasn’t fixed the Packers’ offense the way many hoped it would, and even if it had Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t say no to another receiver who can get open downfield. Thomas, the latest beneficiary of the high-flying Saints offense, leads all rookie wideouts with 437 yards. If he can earn Drew Brees’s trust so quickly, he can earn Rodgers’s.

28. 49ers select Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma (Actual pick: Joshua Garnett, G)

San Francisco is even more barren at receiver than it is at quarterback, so what better place to slot in the draft’s most polished product at that position? Shepard has run hot and cold with the Giants’ unpredictable offense, but he could easily one-up the surprising success Jeremy Kerley has found sucking up targets from 49ers passers this year.

29. Cardinals select Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas (Actual pick: Robert Nkemdiche, DT)

Nkemdiche has been a non-factor in the first half, buried within a loaded front seven. Instead of pouring resources into another reclamation project, the Cardinals might be wishing they’d addressed their unexpectedly streaky passing attack, which has suffered from injuries and inconsistency so far. Adding a big-play tight end (Henry was far and away the best in the class and has shined of late in San Diego) might round out Carson Palmer’s options nicely and get the rest of the offense rolling up to all-purpose back David Johnson’s All-Pro pace.

30. Panthers select Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (Actual pick: Vernon Butler, DT)

Kenneth K. Lam/Baltimore Sun/TNS via Getty Images

Sure, the Panthers whiffed by slow-playing their search for Josh Norman’s replacement. But as mentioned above, there just haven’t been that many impressive rookie corners in the early going this fall. Fuller has acquitted himself well after stepping in as the Redskins’ nickel corner—would he beat out fellow rookies Daryl Worley and James Bradberry for the No. 1 corner job in Carolina? While we’re here in the land of counterfactuals, it might be worth a roll of the dice.

31. Seahawks select Joe Thuney, G, NC State (Actual pick: Germain Ifedi, G)

Ifedi’s first two months as a pro have been marked by injury and inconsistency, while Thuney, a third-round pick (No. 78) by the Patriots, has earned rave reviews. He could have provided an upgrade at any number of positions in Seattle, where no one is safe on the much-maligned O-line.

The Falcons snapped a seven-game losing streak as favorites straight-up by beating the Packers, but they have gone 0–8 against the spread in their last eight games as favorites of 3.5 points or less. The Bucs have been abysmal at home against teams with winning records recently, dropping nine of 10 straight up following last Sunday’s loss.

Bettors expecting another high-scoring game like the teams’ first meeting should be aware that four of the past five meetings at Tampa Bay have hit the under. The under is 13–2 in Atlanta’s last 15 Week 9 matchups.