NBA ‘SO/UP’ Picks and Bets for Tuesday's Games

Breaking down the spread, over/under and player props for 76ers at Knicks and Nuggets at Jazz.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Oct 26, 2021

Betting on basketball can be mind-numbingly frustrating or wildly exciting depending on which side of a fourth-quarter three-point barrage you’re backing.

I’m here to commiserate with your bad beats and celebrate the backdoor covers.

I’ll be making ‘SO/UP’ (spread, over/under, prop) picks for two games every Tuesday and Thursday during the NBA season. Guest pickers will drop in to assist in making our bets, and I’ll have DFS value plays for that night’s games as well.

Without further ado, here’s the skinny and bets for Tuesday’s pair of games, with odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook.

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid — Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia 76ers (2-1) at New York Knicks (2-1)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Spread: 76ers +1.5 (-110) | Knicks -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: 76ers (+100) | Knicks (-118)

Total: Under 217.5 (-110) | Over 217.5 (-110)

Injuries: 76ers PG Ben Simmons—Out; 76ers C Joel Embiid—Day-to-day; 76ers C Andre Drummond—Day-to-day; Knicks C Nerlens Noel—Questionable

The 76ers enter Tuesday with double-digit wins over the Thunder and Pelicans and a narrow home loss to the Nets. Philadelphia averages the ninth-most points (113.7 PPG) and allows the 10th-fewest (104.7 PPG). The 76ers, led by Joel Embiid’s 21 points per game, are 2-1 Against The Spread (ATS) and their games have hit the over once.

The Knicks beat the Celtics in overtime in the season opener and then split a two-game series with the Magic.

New York is the No. 3 scoring offense (121 PPG) and the 19th-best scoring defense (113.3 PPG). Do-it-all forward Julius Randle averages a double-double and leads the team in assists. The Knicks are 2-1 ATS and all of their games have hit the over.

Spread Pick: 76ers +1.5

Though these teams are both 2-1, Philadelphia has been more consistent. Scoring 138 points against Boston was great for New York, but that doesn’t mean it’s repeatable. Embiid has been pedestrian so far, but he’s the best player in this game. He’s due for a blowup performance and it could come Tuesday at Madison Square Garden.

Over/Under Pick: Over 217.5

The Knicks lead the NBA in three-pointers made per game (18) and the 76ers are close behind in fourth place (14.7). Both of these squads can put points up in a hurry and have star scorers—Randle and Embiid—capable of going for 35 points on any given night, as well as wings like Seth Curry and Evan Fournier capable of getting hot.

Prop: Julius Randle Over 8.5 Rebounds

New York’s stud power forward is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game and his totals have increased in each game: 8, 10, 16. The 76ers are a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team with no player (including Embiid) averaging double-digit boards.

Guest picker and SI Betting Editor David Scipione’s Take: Are the Knicks really for real? Losing to Orlando is keeping me from picking New York, despite the home-court advantage. When in doubt, go with the team with the most stars—even if one of those stars is throwing a tantrum because he can't hit a layup. With that in mind, stars come to Madison Square Garden to show out and I believe that's what happens Tuesday. I like the over 217.5 and I'll take Randle over 2.5 made threes (+144) as he tries to keep pace with Embiid, who I think suits up despite being listed as day-to-day.

nikola-jokic-nuggets-layup — Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports

Denver Nuggets (2-1) at Utah Jazz (2-0)

When: 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Spread: Nuggets +7 (-110) | Jazz -7 (-110)

Moneyline: Nuggets +240 | Jazz -300

Total: Under 218.5 (-110) | Over 218.5 (-110)

Injuries: None

Denver began the season with wins against Phoenix and San Antonio but lost to Cleveland on Monday, scoring just 87 points.

The Nuggets have the fifth-worst offense (99.7 PPG) and the No. 5 scoring defense (97.7 PPG), having kept all of their opponents under 100 points. Led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, who’s averaging nearly 30 points and 15 rebounds per night, Denver is 1-2 ATS and all of its games have gone under the total projection.

The Jazz have the second-best point differential (+15 PPG) after convincing wins over the Thunder and Kings. Its middle-of-the-pack offense (108.5 PPG) ranks 17th and it boasts the best scoring defense (93.5 PPG). Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert anchor the offense and defense, respectively, and the team is 2-0 ATS and the under hit in both games.

Spread Pick: Jazz -7

The Nuggets are on the second night of a back-to-back and Jokic played a game-high 35 minutes Monday. Utah, meanwhile, last played Oct. 22 and its defense can stifle a Denver team that hasn’t done much on offense beyond Jokic’s superhuman contributions.

Over/Under Pick: Under 218.5

This is an easy one. Two top-five defenses and an average and below-average offense. There are a few players in this game capable of going nuclear, but both teams have the horses on the wings to contain the other’s stars.

Prop: Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds

Utah’s center has grabbed 20 and 21 rebounds in two games this season. He leads the NBA by a large margin, and he’s averaged 13.5 boards each of the past two seasons.

Scipione’s Take: When Lauri Markkanen posterizes your best player, things aren't going well. There is no way the Nuggets win this game or cover that spread. I'm all over the under 218.5 and I'll go ahead and take Mike Conley over 5.5 assists (-110). Stay away from the Nuggets' player props coming off of a back-to-back.