NFL Week 7 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
The only thing missing from Sunday night's 49ers-Colts monsoon bowl was the fictional Carl Spackler—played by the legendary Bill Murray—proclaiming, "I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite a while."
The heavy stuff certainly came and led to a football game that, quite frankly, contained errant passes that we've all hurled in our backyard games.
You might have laughed a few times, but you certainly weren't laughing by night's end if you bet the under. Somehow, someway, in a game that featured two solid defenses, the over hit because 16 points were scored in the fourth quarter.
Brutal.
Let's get to the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 7 betting.
Make your bets for Saints-Seahawks at SI Sportsbook
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THE GOOD
C.J. WHO?
C.J. Uzomah is barely on the TE1 fantasy radar, so we don't blame you if you made your prop bets Sunday and didn't include the Bengals' tight end.
But if you did, bravo!
Uzomah tallied three catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns, including the first of the game. Uzomah scoring paid out handsomely at +440, but the tight end scoring the game's first touchdown had +2100 odds. That's a nice payday.
Samaje Perine also had a nice payout on his anytime touchdown prop at +410.
LAMAR STILL DELIVERS
The Ravens failed to cover and lost straight-up (SU), but Lamar Jackson cashed in some nice prop bets at SI Sportsbook.
Jackson hit the over on his passing yards (240.5), rushing yards (60.5) and a combined rushing/passing prop (306.5). Jackson threw for 257 yards and one touchdown and ran for 88 yards, combining for 345 yards.
Not bad for a quarterback on the wrong end of a 41-17 loss.
THE FINAL RUSH
We're going to the Bengals-Ravens tilt again, but those who backed Joe Mixon to top 58.5 rushing yards enjoyed a wild swing in emotions.
Mixon, facing a tough Ravens defense, had just 35 yards with less than 12 minutes to go. Things didn't look good.
Then, a 21-yard touchdown run. OK. Just three yards to go, but the Bengals had a 34-17 lead when the next drive began with 7:53 remaining. Perhaps Perine would play the rest of the way with the game in a good spot and Mixon dealing with recent injuries .
First down: Mixon for three yards. The over hits.
Cash. That. Bet.
UGLY BUT A WIN
The Washington Football team only scored 10 points yesterday, but that didn't stop bettors from cashing the overs on their rushing/receiving player prop bets.
Antonio Gibson topped 49.5 rushing yards, Taylor Heinicke cruised past his 19.5 rushing bet with 95 yards, Terry McLaurin blew past his over/under of 69.5 receiving yards by tallying 122 and Ricky Seals-Jones had 51 yards to cash the over on 38.5.
AIR IT OUT
The Rams, as a whole, will be featured in the bad section, but Matt Stafford and the passing game feasted against the Lions.
Stafford (334 passing yards and three touchdowns) topped 291.5 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns, Cooper Kupp had 156 yards to cash his 94.5 prop (and continue to anger those who have Robert Woods in fantasy) and Woods salvaged yet another forgettable fantasy day with 70 yards, just clearing his 62.5 mark.
Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
THE BAD
IT'S A DAMN FIGHT
The Lions' performance Sunday can best be described with the fictional Tony Evers' great line from Rocky when the title character puts up a fight against Apollo Creed: "He doesn't know it's a damn show. He think it's a damn fight."
The Lions pulled out all the tricks yesterday and fought to the end in a 28-19 loss, which had to infuriate Rams bettors.
SI Sportsbook had a tasty boosted parlay if you liked the heavy favorites Sunday: Rams (-16.5), Packers (-7.5) and Patriots (-6.5) at +700 odds, up from +650.
New England and Green Bay did their parts. Los Angeles just had to do its.
Well, the Rams escaped and may as well have muttered, "Ain't gonna be no rematch." They didn't even come close to covering.
NO LONGER A TREND
We say farewell to the "Bet the Patriots' under" play.
The Patriots opened the year with the under cashing in each of their first four games, but the over has hit in each of their last three games.
Sunday's game had an over/under of 42.5 and the Patriots topped that without any help from the poor Jets.
SO CLOSE YET SO FAR
The Buccaneers easily covered a 12.5-point spread against the Bears in a 38-3 win, but those who bet the over on the point total (47) can only shake their heads.
Ryan Succop missed a 43-yard field goal early in the game, and the Buccaneers couldn't punch it in late despite having a golden opportunity.
With the Buccaneers leading, 35-3, early in the third quarter, they had a 1st-and-goal at the 2-yard line. Chicago's defense had barely mustered a fight up to that point.
First down, pass for no gain. Then, an incomplete pass. Two more rushes went nowhere and the Buccaneers failed to score.
Those seven points would have cashed the over.
Brutal.
Stan Szeto/USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
THE CHIEFS STOPPED HENRY?!?!
It's hard to say nice things about the Chiefs' defense, although we could compliment the unit on being welcoming to opposing players.
Derrick Henry, on the other hand, is running through defenses like John Cena ran through the WWE roster during his prime years.
Henry versus the Chiefs seemed like a smash spot. Too good to be true.
Until it wasn't.
The Chiefs somehow held Henry to 86 rushing yards (2.97 rushing yards per attempt), well below his over/under of 118.5, and kept him out of the end zone. Henry also failed to cash his longest run prop of 19.5 yards at SI Sportsbook.
At least Henry salvaged his fantasy day with a passing touchdown, but that did no good for those who expected Henry to lead them to profits.
NOT FEELING SO HOT IN MIAMI
Things are not going so well in Miami but at least you have South Beach.
Now, this one might not be so ugly if you took the Dolphins +2.5 early in the week. The line ended at Dolphins as 2-point home underdogs against the Falcons.
But if you waited? ouch.
Let's set the stage: The Dolphins led by one with 2:27 left. One stop against a meh Falcons team, and Dolphins Against The Spread (ATS) and SU bettors rejoice.
First play: Matt Ryan to Kyle Pitts, 23 yards.
Second play: Ryan to Pitts, 28 yards.
Dolphins ultimately lose on a walk-off field goal.
A push instead of a ATS win and a SU loss. All Miami needed was one stop.
One.
Well, at least the Dolphins have their own first-round pick in 2022, right? (Ducks)
OH, NOW YOU SCORE?
Considering the weather and Jimmy Garoppolo's general ineffectiveness, betting the under on the 41.5 total projection for Colts-49ers seemed logical.
The game seemed to be going to plan through the first three quarters, with the Colts leading, 20-12, entering the fourth.
Then, almost out of nowhere, Garoppolo put it all together for three plays and led a 70-yard drive for a score but failed to convert the 2-point attempt. The Colts answered with a field goal to make it 23-18. Staying alive, if barely.
No more points and the money is flowing.
(Jimmy G enters scene.)
Garoppolo throws an interception and the Colts crush your dreams with a 28-yard strike on 3rd-and-10 to push the game past the total projection. We recommend you don't watch the clip to see Dre Kirkpatrick's "defense" on the touchdown.
The 49ers' bad night also cost you a great payout at SI Sportsbook, which boosted a parlay to +750 from +650 that the 49ers would cover (-4.5), Garoppolo would throw for more than 224.5 yards and Deebo Samuel would find the end zone.
Only Samuel did his part.
Thanks for nothing, San Francisco.
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