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2021 Thanksgiving NFL Best Bets and Player Props: Bills at Saints

A Thanksgiving Day betting breakdown of the matchup between Buffalo and New Orleans.

At this point, all of us will have likely reached the battle with tryptophan following all the consumption of turkey and the trimmings. As we battle to stay awake ahead of the espresso, rainbow cookies and cannolis—sports bettors and fantasy managers will focus on the third and final of the holiday matchups.

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Following the action from MoTown, and Jerry’s World, we head to Louisiana for the Bills (6-4 SU; 6-4 ATS) facing off with the Saints (5-5 SU; 5-5 ATS). Buffalo is currently a 5.5-point road favorite with a total sitting on the game at 46.5 at SI Sportsbook.

On Thanksgiving Day, the Bills own a 4-4-1 record, most recently defeating Dallas in 2019. The Saints are a perfect 3-0 on Thanksgiving, producing their most recent victory in 2019 against Atlanta.

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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Buffalo (-215) | New Orleans (+175)

Total: 45.5– Over (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF 65% | NO 35%

Game Info: Thursday Nov. 25, 2021 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC

Buffalo will look to rebound from a shocking 41-15 home loss to Indianapolis when they take on a Saints team that is on a three-game losing streak.

The Bills, who own a 6-4 Straight Up (SU) record, have also posted a 6-4 Against The Spread (ATS) mark on the year. Buffalo, who is 3-2 (SU) on the road, has also rewarded bettors at a marginal clip thanks to an identical 3-2 (ATS) record over those contests.

On the flip side, the Saints are 5-5 SU and ATS on the season. New Orleans has struggled since losing quarterback Jameis Winston for the season—leading to three consecutive SU losses to Philadelphia, Tennessee and Atlanta, resulting in bettors fading a club that has only covered two of their last five games against the number.

Buffalo Player Prop Info

The Bills possess the second-best scoring offense in the NFL producing 29.5 points per game. Buffalo will likely lean on Josh Allen’s dual threat ability against a Saints defense that was just torched by Philadelphia signal caller Jalen Hurts both in the air and on the ground last week.

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In the passing game, Buffalo will feature Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders against the 22nd ranked Saints passing defense allowing 252.2 yards per game. Diggs leads the team in targets (92), receptions (60), receiving yards (773) and touchdowns (6). The veteran wideout has become more involved in the offense in recent games leading to five touchdowns in his last five games. 

Respected money has targeted Diggs anytime touchdown market at odds of +125, a feat he has accomplished in four of the last five contests buoyed by an impressive 10.5 targets per game over that span. Sanders will have extra motivation to face the Saints after spending the 2020 season with New Orleans and should be trusted as a solid flex option for fantasy managers.

Saints Player Prop Info

On the other side of the ball, the Saints will likely be without star running back Alvin Kamara (knee) for the third consecutive game. New Orleans, who owns the league's seventh-worst passing offense at 203.4 passing yards per game, will look to get more consistency from their offense. Trevor Siemian has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the Saints' three-game losing skid will now face the Bills' second-best passing defense ,surrendering a paltry 181.8 passing yards per game. Marquez Callaway anytime touchdown market at odds of +215 is attractive. The second-year wide receiver has become a favorite red zone target of Siemian, hauling in a touchdown in three straight games.

Frankie's Thanksgiving Plays

The Saints simply do not have enough weapons to keep pace with Buffalo and should not be trusted by bettors in the prime-time matchup on Thanksgiving. The Bills, despite shocking losses to the Colts and Jaguars in recent weeks, have a massive advantage at the most important position: quarterback. Time to invest in the Bills sending a struggling Saints squad to a fourth consecutive defeat.

BET: Buffalo -5 (-120)

PROP BETS:

Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills: Anytime Touchdown +125

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 6-5 ATS / Props 11-11 +3.15 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 30-25 ATS & Props +6.05 Units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas

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