NFL Week 11 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
It's Jonathan Taylor's world and we're all just living in it.
Taylor is making the case to be the MVP, and we hope you had some prop bets or parlays involving the second-year superstar or the Colts (+7).
We can't be so kind about the Bills and Titans, who flopped as heavy home favorites. Home teams and big favorites burned bettors Sunday with poor showings.
Let's get to it: The good, the bad and the ugly from Week 11 betting.
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THE GOOD
Taylor-Made Bets
Backing Taylor is a wise strategy.
He went Rambo on the Bills yesterday, totaling 204 yards (185 rushing) and five touchdowns in the Colts' 41-15 beatdown of the Bills.
Taylor is one of those players whose props you should be smashing each week, no matter the line, and yesterday's lines proved especially tempting since the Bills' defense has been good. Here are some of the props Taylor cashed yesterday:
• First touchdown: +600
• Anytime touchdown: -138
• Over 76.5 rushing yards
• Over 105.5 combined yards
• Over 17.5 yards longest rush
Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Barely Made It
It's always scary when you have to sweat out a prop bet, but it's a sigh of relief when it cashes on the player's final touch.
Christian McCaffrey only cleared his 117.5 combined yards prop on his final touch: an 8-yard catch on Carolina's final play that gave him 119 yards for the day.
Dalvin Cook made it two straight weeks in which he cleared his rushing prop on his final touch of the game. Cook's 12-yard scamper that set up Minnesota's game-winning field goal gave him 86 rushing yards, topping his projection of 83.5.
Purple Rain Of Points
Let's hit a little more on that fantastic and profitable Packers-Vikings tilt featuring plenty of haymakers and great players making great plays.
While one player will be saved for the ugly section—although he didn't have a bad overall game—the others certainly won you some money.
Look at this beauty:
• Aaron Rodgers: Over 266.5 passing yards, 2.5 touchdown passes, 274.5 total yards
• Kirk Cousins: Over 267.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdown passes, 23.5 completions
• Justin Jefferson: Anytime touchdown (+115), over 74.5 receiving yards
• Adam Thielen: Anytime touchdown (+130), over 58.5 receiving yards
• Dalvin Cook: Anytime TD (-150), First touchdown (+520), over 83.5 rushing yards
• Davante Adams: Anytime TD (-150), over 92.5 receiving yards
As you can surely guess, both the over and total touchdowns over both hit.
He Scored?
It's always fun to go through the boxscores and find the random payouts.
If you somehow bet Lil'Jordan Humphrey to score an anytime touchdown yesterday, you received a handsome payout at +1700 odds.
Bettors received nearly the same payout if they wagered on Zach Ertz (+1450) having the first touchdown in Cardinals-Seahawks, and his anytime prop cashed at +275.
Tennessee's Dez Fitzpatrick also scored, rewarding those who backed his anytime touchdown prop odds at +950.
Home, Sweet Home
The Chiefs finally did it.
They covered at home.
It may not have been pretty, but the Chiefs (-2.5) are now 1-5 ATS at home after their 19-9 victory over the Cowboys.
Don't look now, but the Chiefs have now covered in two straight games after starting the year 2-7. Perhaps bettors can start trusting them after the bye.
Betting His Strength, Fading His Weakness
The Eagles have adapted to Jalen Hurts by playing to his strength (rushing the ball) and minimizing his weakness (throwing the ball).
Bettors who did the same profited Sunday.
Hurts had three rushing touchdowns, cashing his anytime touchdown prop (+150) and first touchdown prop (+875). He also cleared 49.5 rushing yards.
As a passer, Hurts tallied 147 passing yards and no touchdowns. The under hit on both the yards and his touchdown passes.
The trends are there to capitalize on for bettors.
Hammering The Under
The Bears-Ravens tilt had all the makings of a defensive battle, and those two teams didn't make you sweat if you faded the offenses.
The 16-13 final meant the under (40.5) hit, and so did the under on total touchdowns (4.5). The under also hit on Justin Fields' props, including rushing yards, passing yards and passing touchdowns. Fields was struggling before he left due to injury.
Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports
THE BAD
Home-Field Advantage?
Betting home teams straight-up (SU) burned bettors Sunday.
Home teams went just 5-8 Sunday, and four of those losses came as moneyline favorites. Two of those losses (Buffalo, Tennessee) featured teams with two of the largest spreads of the day. Defending your own turf is overrated anyway.
Under Siege
We can all agree: The over is more fun than the under.
The under ruled the day Sunday, though, with eight of 13 games failing to top their projections, including each game in the 4 p.m. window. That Chiefs-Cowboys tilt particularly disappointed with 28 points being scored despite an over/under of 55.5
Oh, You Tease
We're going to put the Steelers in the bad section because of how they teased us before breaking our hearts.
When the Chargers held a 17-point lead going into the fourth, things looked bleak if you bet Pittsburgh on the moneyline.
Not so fast.
The Steelers battled back while the Chargers Charger'd, and the Steelers took a 37-34 lead with 3:29 remaining.
Well, this Steelers' defense won't remind anyone of The Steel Curtain. A 53-yard bomb to Mike Williams gave the Chargers the 41-37 win.
It's easier to handle a loss when there isn't that late tease.
What About Us?
Bravo if you only bet Taylor's props in Bills-Colts.
Because the receivers let you down in a big way.
Each of the receivers fell way short of their receiving prop bets:
• Stefon Diggs: Prop 83.5 receiving yards; 23 receiving yards
• Emmanuel Sanders: Prop 48.5 receiving yards; 26 receiving yards
• Michael Pittman Jr.: Prop 57.5 receiving yards; 23 receiving yards
• T.Y. Hilton: Prop 33.5 receiving yards; 26 receiving yards
At least Diggs saved bettors with two touchdowns.
End Of An Era
Russell Wilson's return hasn't galvanized the Seahawks.
Seattle has scored one touchdown in eight quarters since Wilson returned, and he does not have a passing touchdown in that stretch.
The Seahawks burned those who jumped on a boosted parlay from SI Sportsbook at +500 odds (up from +425) that the Bengals, Seahawks and Chiefs would all win.
Shame on you, Seattle. Even Cincinnati—Yes, Cincinnati!—did its part!
That Was Unexpected
The Eagles-Saints game featured the second-lowest over/under at 42, ahead of only Ravens-Bears. It seemed like a reasonable game to target with the under.
Wrong.
The teams combined for 69 points in the Eagles' 40-29 win, and easily topped the 4.5 total touchdowns prop with eight scores. New Orleans' usually strong defense folded, and the teams combined for 29 points in the fourth quarter.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
Is Anyone Good?
The big favorites once again let us down.
Four of the five largest favorites failed to cover, with only the 49ers (granted, that had more to do with their opponent) winning ATS.
The Browns (-13) barely got by Tim Boyle and the Lions, the Titans (-10) and Bills (-7) both lost and the Chargers (-6.5) needed a late-game rally to win by four.
Cleveland, Tennessee and Buffalo failing to cover prevented a boosted +750 spread parlay (up from +640) from cashing at SI Sportsbook.
Maybe there just aren't any great teams in football this year.
NUMBERS DON'T EQUAL MONEY
A.J. Dillon had a fine day for fantasy players against the Vikings in place of Aaron Jones, totaling 97 yards and registering six catches.
It's a different story for bettors, and that's why Dillon is in the ugly section on a day in which all the other marquee players delivered in the Packers-Vikings shootout.
Dillon failed to score despite -138 anytime touchdown odds, and did not top his 83.5 rushing yards prop or his 114.5 combined yards prop.
He did hit the over on his receiving prop.
What makes his day even more frustrating is his failure to reach the end zone prevented a nice boosted parlay at SI Sportsbook at +320 odds (up from +270) that both Dillon and Myles Gaskin would score. Gaskin did his part against the Jets.
THANKS FOR NOTHING
You felt good holding a Chargers -6.5 ticket with a 17-point lead entering the fourth.
You felt sick to your stomach by the end of the night.
The Chargers somehow didn't cover and needed a late rally just to win on the moneyline. Los Angeles even held a seven-point lead with 4:54 remaining.
The failure to cover ruined a +550 boosted parlay (up from +475) featuring Chargers -5.5, over 47.5 points and a Mike Williams touchdown.
Williams woke up from his four-week slumber to provide his touchdown and the over easily hit, but the Chargers only won by four points.
Rough Times For The Top Pick
Trevor Lawrence is having a rough time in Jacksonville.
If anyone invested in the top pick yesterday, they gave away money as Lawrence had a rough day in the Jaguars' loss to the 49ers.
The under hit on Lawrence's passing yards, passing touchdowns, completions, combined yards and attempts.
The 49ers' defense isn't elite and had to travel cross-country for a 10 a.m. PT start, but Lawrence still couldn't get it done. Not ideal.
Lawrence also burned bettors who took this boosted parlay at +180 odds (up from +130) that Dan Arnold and Mike Gesicki would both have 4+ catches.
Arnold pulled a T.J. Hockenson with the ol' 0-0 line.
AMERICA'S LETDOWN
You had sound logic if you jumped on this boosted parlay at +600 odds (up from +550) from SI Sportsbook that the Cowboys would beat the Chiefs, Dak Prescott would top 299.5 passing yards and CeeDee Lamb would score a touchdown.
Unfortunately, logic doesn't always equal results.
The Cowboys' offense and Prescott produced a dud and Lamb left the game with a concussion. Prescott tallied just 216 yards and no touchdowns.
At least a struggling Raiders team is coming to town Thursday.
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