NFL Week 12 Betting Preview: Line Movement and Odds Tracking for Sunday's Games
After three games of NFL action on Thanksgiving, sports bettors witnessed underdogs go 2-1 with one outright victory by the Raiders. Overall, underdogs continue to hold the edge in the wagering outcome with a mark of 94-70-1 ATS (57.3%) on the season. The action will return on Sunday with eleven games on tap.
Let’s take a look at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the Sunday slate.
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Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 12 Games ‘On The Move’
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (+155) | Cincinnati (-190)
Spread: PIT +4 (-110) | CIN -4 (-110)
Total: 44.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 44.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 28, 2021 1:00 pm ET | CBS
This game opened in early wagering back in August with the Steelers as 3-point road favorites but was adjusted to an opening line of the Bengals as 4-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook. Cincinnati, coming off a convincing 32-13 win at Las Vegas as a 2.5 point road favorite, will be looking to snap a three-game home Against The Spread losing streak. Pro money is wagering that Cincinnati, with the 9th best scoring offense (26.8 points per game), will be able to move the ball with a balanced attack led by Joe Mixon on the ground and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins through the air.
Bettors are investing that the Bengals will win their third straight game against their AFC North rivals after losing eight consecutive matchups. Dating back to 2016, the Steelers own 6-4 ATS mark over the last ten meetings versus their bitter foes.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 55% of money on Pittsburgh
Line Move: Pittsburgh -3 to Cincinnati -4
2021 Against the Spread Record
PIT: 4-6 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 3-1 ATS)
CIN: 5-5 ATS (Home: 1-3 ATS, Away: 4-2 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
CIN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
PIT: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Moneyline: Philadelphia (-190) | New York (+155)
Spread: PHI -3.5 (-110) | NYG +3.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5– Over (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 28, 2021 4:05 pm ET | FOX
We have witnessed a flip of favorites from the early August line involving the struggling Giants in Week 12 hosting Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. This game opened with New York as 3-point home favorites in early wagering over the summer but oddsmakers opened the game flipped last Sunday night with Philadelphia as 3-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook.
Since the opener, oddsmakers have witnessed strong steam backing the Eagles to improve their recent 3-1 SU and ATS winning streak. Pro money is wagering that Philadelphia who is 5-2 ATS in their last seven will dominate the Giants on the ground. The Eagles, who own the second-best rushing attack (153.4 rushing yards per game), will now face the Giants 23rd ranked rushing defense allowing 119.7 yards per game. Philadelphia has witnessed recent success in their last five games against their NFC East rival winning four of the last five meetings, but have burned bettors posting a 1-4 ATS mark over that span. Respected money believes the difference in this game will come down to Jalen Hurts and his improving play over a struggling Daniel Jones.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 63% of money on Philadelphia
Line Move: New York -3 to Philadelphia -3.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
PHI: 5-5 ATS (Home: 1-3 ATS, Away: 4-2 ATS)
NYG: 5-5 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
PHI: 6-10 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 0-8 ATS)
NYG: 9-7 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 6-2 ATS)
Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports | Brian Fluharty/USA Today Sports
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Moneyline: Tennessee (+240) | New England (-300)
Spread: TEN +7 (-110) | NE -7 (-110)
Total: 43.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 43.5 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 28, 2021 4:25 pm ET | CBS
The Titans, early 1.5-point road favorites in August, were adjusted to 6.5-point underdogs on Sunday’s opener at SI Sportsbook. Tennessee, who owns a 4-1 ATS record on the road this season, will now face a Patriots squad that is on a five-game ATS and SU winning streak. Since losing to Dallas back in Week 6, New England has won its last five games by a 25 point margin, outscoring its opponents 175-50.
Bettors are fading a Titans team that will be without their best offensive player in Derrick Henry (foot) for the fourth straight week, while also looking to rebound from last week’s shocking loss to the Texans as 10.5-point home favorites. The Titans will need to come up with a game plan that is less predictable on offense while finding a way to slow down the efficient Mac Jones and the Patriots' solid running game.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 54% of money on Tennessee
Line Move: Tennessee -1.5 to New England -7
2021 Against the Spread Record
TEN: 7-4 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 4-1 ATS)
NE: 7-4 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 4-1 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
TEN: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
NE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Moneyline: Los Angeles (-125) | Green Bay (+105)
Spread: LAR -1.5 (-110) | GB +1.5 (-110)
Total: 47– Over: (-110) | Under: 47 (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 21, 2021 4:25 pm ET | FOX
This is easily the best game of the Week 12 slate and offers NFL fans a look at a potential NFC Championship Game matchup. The Packers will look to extend their home ATS winning streak to five consecutive games as well as improve upon a league-best 9-2 overall ATS mark. The Rams will head into Lambeau looking to snap their two-game losing skid after suffering defeats to San Francisco and Tennessee. Los Angeles is 2-2 SU over the last four weeks but owns a disappointing 0-4 ATS record over that span. Dating back to last season, the Rams are a disappointing 4-6 ATS (40%) over their last 10 regular-season road games.
However, respected money is backing that coming off its bye week, the Rams will improve upon its solid 4-1 SU road record this season with a spread that virtually just demands a victory. The knowledge of Aaron Rodgers now battling a toe injury has led to a flip of favorites in this highlighted matchup of Super Bowl contenders.
Public Betting: 55% of money on Green Bay
Line Move: Green Bay -3.5 to Rams -1.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
LAR: 4-6 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 2-3 ATS)
GB: 9-2 ATS (Home: 4-0 ATS, Away: 5-2 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
LAR: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Check the Week 12 Lines at SI Sportsbook
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
