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NFL Week 13 Betting Recap: Bad Beats & Big Payouts

Betting the heavy favorites paid dividends for bettors Sunday, although Vikings and Ravens moneyline bettors felt the burn on the final plays.

Our bettors weren't scared by large spread.

And we hope you listened to their advice.

In a season defined by the underdogs, the four biggest favorites all covered Sunday. Sometimes, it pays to bet the chalk.

On the flip side, those backing the Ravens and Vikings—and particularly those who included Minnesota in parlays or teasers—are surely feeling sick. Losing on the last play is brutal.

Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 13 betting.

Monday Night Football: Bills-Patriots Line at SI Sportsbook

The Indianapolis Colts celebrate a touchdown by running back Jonathan Taylor (28) during the first quarter of the game Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, at NRG Stadium in Houston. Indianapolis Colts Versus Houston Texans On Sunday Dec 5 2021 At Nrg Stadium In Houston Texas


Big Money

The philosopher/poet Young Jeezy once said: "Scared money don't make no money."

It may have been scary to bet the heavy favorites, but they delivered Sunday. The four biggest favorites each covered, including three double-digit spreads. The Rams (-14), Buccaneers (-10.5), Colts (-10) and Chiefs (-8.5) each successfully laid the points.

Job well done.

Follow the Experts

SI Fantasy expert Michael Fabiano liked Jaylen Waddle and Hunter Renfrow this week, and that led to boosted +300 odds, up from +250, from SI Sportsbook.

Waddle tallied nine catches for 90 yards against the Giants, while Renfrow burned Washington for 102 yards on nine catches. We hope you listened to Fabiano.

Raise the Bar

Jonathan Taylor's prowess has been mentioned before, but we continue to marvel at how betting Taylor is still profitable no matter the odds.

Taylor cashed his anytime touchdown prop at -300, but that number shouldn't have scared bettors considering it seemed a given he would score against the lowly Texans. Perhaps you also bet Taylor scoring the first touchdown (+310) for an even better payout.

The Colts' star running back also easily topped his props of 104 rushing yards and 126.5 combined yards. Unfortunately for bettors, Taylor and the Colts are on bye in Week 14.

Atlanta's Mayor: Tom Brady

Tom Brady owns Atlanta. It's indisputable.

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Backing Brady and his receivers against the Falcons seemed like an easy call, and the results followed the sound process.

Brady hit the over on his 307.5 passing yards props, 2.5 touchdowns prop, 26.5 completions prop and 39.5 passing attempts prop.

Chris Godwin doubled his receiving prop of 70.5 receiving yards, and Mike Evans also topped 59.5 receiving yards. Rob Gronkowski scored twice to cash anytime TD props.

On the bright side Atlanta fans, your baseball team is the reigning champion!

Throwing a Dart

Betting the first touchdown may be more trendy, but there's certainly some fun in betting who will score the last touchdown.

If you somehow bet that Amon-Ra St. Brown would score the last touchdown in Vikings-Lions, you received +1450 odds.

We also ask that if you placed such bet, please let us know which last touchdown prop you should be betting for next week's games.

(St. Brown had 4-47-1 on the Lions' final drive, good for 14.7 fantasy points. Yes, I may only know that number because I somehow faced a guy who started him in a superflex league as his superflex and he received 24.8 points from St. Brown.)

Points Galore

The Vikings-Lions shootout proved profitable for those who targeted player props.

The game hit the over on points and total touchdowns, and Alexander Mattison (-150), Justin Jefferson (-110), T.J. Hockenson (+188) and St. Brown (+250) each scored.

Here's a sampling of some of the props that cleared (we offer sympathy to those who bet Adam Thielen, who left the game early with a sprained ankle):

Kirk Cousins: Passing yards, combined yards, passing touchdowns, longest pass
Jared Goff: Passing yards, passing TDS, interceptions (Worth targeting with Goff!)
Justin Jefferson: Receiving yards, longest catch
T.J. Hockenson: Receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Receiving yards

Uh-Oh...Look Who Learned How to Cover

The Chiefs started the year just 2-7 Against The Spread (ATS), but they have since reeled off three straight covers after laying the 8.5 points in the 22-9 win over Denver.

Kansas City has also now covered in consecutive home games, which had been a particular struggle. The Chiefs will try to make it three straight at Arrowhead against the Raiders in Week 14.

Now, if we can only get them to start scoring some points (foreshadowing the ugly!)

No Garbage Time

The under had hit in nine of 11 Jaguars' games entering Sunday and in Week 13 the Rams-Jaguars game featured an over/under of 47.5.

The Rams scored with 10:56 to give the game 44 total points, but the Jaguars couldn't muster any more points and the game finished with a 37-7 final.

Thankfully, the Jaguars are not a garbage time team. We do apologize, though, if you have James Robinson on your fantasy team. If you're starting any other Jaguar beside Trevor Lawrence in a superflex league, we have to question your team building.

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) throws the ball in the second half. The Eagles defeat the Jets, 33-18, at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, in East Rutherford. Nyj Vs Phi


One Yard

Jets quarterbacks have been good for a random outburst (See: Mike White, Josh Johnson) and perhaps you targeted Zach Wilson on Sunday against the Eagles.

Wilson's passing yards props sat at 226.5, and Wilson needed 44 yards on the final drive to top that amount despite playing a decent game up to that point.

Wilson tallied 32 yards entering the game's final play, and he connected with Braxton Berrios on his final pass...for 11 yards.

Wilson's final line: 226 yards.

Ouch. One measly yard on a play that didn't matter and you cash.


Two Chances, No Points

Those who bet Buccaneers -10 don't mind how this game ended, but there surely were those scared by the double-digit spread and decided to bet the over.

The Falcons and Buccaneers combined for 73 points earlier in the season, and Sunday's game total sat at 51 points.

With Tampa Bay leading, 30-17, in the final minute, Atlanta drove to the Tampa Bay 7-yard line. First play: Incomplete. Second play: Incomplete. Game over.

Two chances, two incompletions, no money.

Catch the Ball!

Gerald Everett won't be getting Christmas cards from any Seahawks fans.

Those who bet Everett's anytime touchdown prop with +270 odds had to be sick to their stomachs watching Everett play FUMBLEROOSKI yesterday against the 49ers.

Everett should have had a walk-in touchdown, but he instead bobbled the ball and kicked it to K'Waun Williams for an interception. In the fourth quarter, with a chance to seal the game, Everett again fumbled with a chance to score.

The tight end lost two fumbles and contributed to three turnovers.

The Boosts That didn't Deliver

SI Sportsbook offered an intriguing boosted parlay at +600 odds (boosted from +520) that the Bears (+7.5), Chargers (+3.5) and Dolphins (-6.5) would all cover.

The Chargers and Dolphins did their parts, but Andy Dalton's four interceptions kept the Bears from keeping it close in a 33-22 loss.

Carson Wentz failing to throw two touchdown passes against the Texans also lost a boosted prop at +200 odds—up from +150—that he and Cousins would do so.

Jamaal Williams' failure to score burned those who bet at boosted +300 odds—originally +250—that both he and Mattison would score.

Dec 5, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers safety Terrell Edmunds (34) and linebacker Devin Bush (55) celebrate after Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) dropped a two-point conversion pass from quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) in the final minute. The Steelers won 20-19 at Heinz Field.


The 2-point Conversion

I had the fortune/misfortune (either applies) of watching the end of Steelers-Ravens with a Steelers moneyline backer and a Ravens -4.5 bettor. Watching them work through each permeation on each possession did provide some quality entertainment.

We're putting the Ravens in the ugly section because that final play burned quite a few potential bets, and continued a troubling Ravens trend. The 20-19 loss to the Steelers dropped the Ravens to 0-6 ATS when they're favored by at least four points.

Baltimore's decision to go for two and failure to convert also cost those who bet: Baltimore moneyline, Baltimore -4.5 and the over (44).

Had Baltimore converted, only the moneyline hits. Had it gone to overtime and scored a touchdown, all three bets would have cashed.

We understand the logic of going for two, but losing three bets because of one play is quite costly to our wallets.


Mike Zimmer has forgotten more about football than I will ever know, but leaving St. Brown wide open in the end zone on the play did not seem like a sound strategy.

Some of you may have been scared away by Minnesota laying seven points since the Vikings entered the game 0-3 ATS as a favorite and opted for the safe play by taking Minnesota on the moneyline. The wiser play would have been in a parlay, since Minnesota straight-up as a touchdown favorite is not going to be lucrative.

Plenty of parlays surely crashed with that Vikings flop and it's all the more painful since they battled back to take the lead before blowing it in epic fashion.

It may be time for an overhaul in Minnesota.

Kansas City...Can't Score?

Some of us remember the good ol' days when the Chiefs' offense couldn't be stopped. Now, the Chiefs are an under machine.

Sunday's 22-9 win didn't come close to the 46.5 projection and the under has now cashed in six of the Chiefs' last seven games.

This is certainly a trend to follow, but it's hard to feel good betting the under on a team that has Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Perhaps the upcoming game against the Raiders will help the Chiefs get back on track considering they scored 41 points in the last matchup.

Ja'Marr Chase's slide continued Sunday against the Chargers with the rookie receiver tallying just five catches for 52 yards and failing to score or clear his 64.5 yards prop.

Since Chase's 8-201-1 blow-up game against the Ravens, he's tallied 20 catches for 204 yards and two scores across his last five games and hasn't topped 52 yards.

You're not cashing prop bets when Chase isn't even topping 60 yards, although he did at least get a pair of anytime touchdown props in the last month.

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