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Monday Night Football Best Bets and Player Props: Patriots at Bills

A MNF betting breakdown of the matchup between the Patriots and the Bills.

Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season concludes on Monday night with a fantastic AFC East matchup as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills play host to Mac Jones and the Patriots.

New England, which sits in first place in the division with an 8-4 straight up (SU) record, have also rewarded bettors with an identical 8-4 against the spread (ATS) mark. The Patriots, who are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road, will look to extend their six-game winning streak against their division rival.

Nov 21, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) jogs off the field following the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium.

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On the flip side, Buffalo has posted a 7-4 SU record, while owning a 6-4-1 ATS mark over that span. The Bills, who have posted a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in recent weeks with wins over New Orleans and Jets, have not beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5 at Kansas City. In fact, that win over the Chiefs stands as the only victory Buffalo has over a team with a winning record all season.

The question for bettors becomes this: Are you willing to bet against Bill Belichick when he faces the Buffalo Bills? Since becoming head coach of the Patriots in 2000, Belichick has a 35-7 record (.833) against Buffalo.

Spread: New England Patriots +3 (-110) | Buffalo Bills -3 (-110)

Moneyline: New England (+120) | Buffalo (-145)

Total: 40.5– Over (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NE 43% | BUF 57%

Game Info: Monday Dec. 6, 2021 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change

The line has held steady in favor of Buffalo (7-4 SU; 6-4-1 ATS) over New England (8-4 SU; 8-4 ATS) as 3-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook. The biggest movement has involved the game total, as both public and respected money are aligned on backing a low scoring affair. The total, which opened at 44, has been driven down to 40.5 following the overwhelming steam that defense will dominate this outcome in Week 13.

The Patriots head to Buffalo looking to extend their six-game winning streak as rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been absolutely stellar. In his first season, Jones has led New England with poise beyond his years. The Patriots, despite lacking any star offensive talent in terms of fantasy production, rank seventh in scoring with 28.0 points per game.

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On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen pilots an explosive offensive attack that ranks second in scoring, averaging 29.6 points per game. Allen, who has eight touchdown passes over the last three games, could struggle against a Patriots defense that ranks second against the pass, allowing a paltry 200.9 passing yards per game.

New England Player Prop Info

New England will feature a solid running attack with a trio that consists of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden. Harris has been superb this season with a rushing touchdown in eight of 11 games he has played in. Hitting at a 73% clip, Harris is an attractive investment in the “Anytime Touchdown” market at odds of +150.

In the passing game, the Patriots offer a trio of solid-but-not-spectacular wideouts in Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. Meyers has the strongest projection in the player proposition receiving market with a demand of 39.5 yards. Meyers, who leads the club in targets (90), has surpassed this number in eight of 12 games this season. As I always stress, follow the volume and you will return to the betting window.

Buffalo Player Prop Info

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo will try to reward bettors after failing to cover the spread the last time they were at home, two weeks ago against the Colts. In that matchup, the Bills were dominated, 41-15, as 7-point home favorites. 

As is always the case, fantasy managers will be depending on strong production from star wideout Stefon Diggs. The veteran receiving target has a game-high reception yardage projection of 60.5 posted at SI Sportsbook. Diggs has surpassed this projection in seven of 11 games. Diggs, who has four touchdowns in his last three games, has scored three touchdowns in three career games against the Patriots. Respected money backed Diggs to score on Thanksgiving against the Saints and are going back to the well once again at odds of +165.

Frankie's Monday Night Football Play

The Bills won both matchups last season against the Patriots after losing seven consecutive meetings dating back to 2016. We know that Belichick owns an astounding record against Buffalo, while historically being one of the strongest teams to back in the month of December. Just like we saw with Nick Saban and Alabama, sports bettors do not often get to grab Belichick in the role of underdog. Let’s grab the points.

BET: New England +3 (-110)

PROP BETS:

Damien Harris, RB, New England: Anytime Touchdown +150 (Half Unit)

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo: Anytime Touchdown +170 (Half Unit)

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England: Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 6-6 ATS / Props 11-11 +2.15 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 36-29 ATS & Props +9.02 Units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)