NFL Week 9 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
The favorites burned us.
Like, really, really bad. (And the Bengals weren't even part of this group!)
Each of the seven biggest favorites failed to cover Sunday, a stunning display by teams that laid at least 6.5 points. Only two of those spreads topped seven points.
We're still trying to figure out what exactly happened in Dallas and Jacksonville.
The flip side is that those who backed the underdogs had a tremendous day Sunday, particularly if you paired Against The Spread (ATS) with Straight-Up (SU) bets.
Let's get to it: the good, the bad and the ugly of Week 9 betting.
Check Monday's Line for Steelers-Bears
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
THE GOOD
THERE'S FIGHT IN THESE UNDERDOGS
We're going to split the atom here.
The favorites are reserved for the ugly section (0-7 will do that), but let's give a shoutout to Sunday's underdogs for their performances.
The underdogs covered in 9 of 12 games, with just the Texans (+4.5), Panthers (+3) and Eagles (+1.5) failing to cover.
NEVER IN DOUBT
Sunday's Eagles-Chargers tilt had an over/under of 49.5.
Brandon Staley apparently doesn't believe in field goals anymore and passed on points, making those who had the over sweat.
The Eagles tied the game at 24-all with 6:16 left before the Chargers held the ball the rest of the way and won on what was essentially a walk-off field goal.
Easy money.
BOOSTED MONEY
That win by the Chargers in Philadelphia loomed quite large for those who pounced on this boosted parlay from SI Sportsbook.
You received boosted odds of +500 (up from +450) for betting the Chargers, Chiefs and Cardinals all to win. Obviously, the Cardinals were the wild card.
But if you either 1. Trusted Colt McCoy or 2. Faded the 49ers, then you certainly had yourself an intriguing parlay to hop on.
In Colt McCoy we trust?
THE LONGEST YARD
Kyle Pitts' receiving prop for Sunday sat at 61.5.
Pitts struggled last week against the Panthers (13 yard) and had a tough Saints defense on tap Sunday.
Well, the rookie just cleared the mark. Pitts finished with 3 catches for 62 yards.
A win is a win.
THE JAMES CONNER SHOW
I'll admit it: I faded James Conner in all my fantasy drafts.
His durability is a concern and Chase Edmonds is underrated.
Oh, was I wrong.
Conner served as a one-man wrecking crew Sunday, dominating the 49ers for for 173 total yards and three touchdowns in Arizona's 31-17 win.
We hope you jumped on his touchdown props.
Conner scoring the first touchdown had +1000 odds and his anytime touchdown prop had +163 odds.
Easy money.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
THANKS FOR NOTHING, DALLAS
The Cowboys probably burned you in a survivor pool.
They most certainly hurt you in your fantasy leagues.
And they definitely made your wallet lighter.
Let's go through a few ways the Cowboys messed up Sunday.
We'll start with a boosted ATS parlay from SI Sportsbook that needed the Falcons, Chargers and Cowboys to all cover.
The Chargers and Falcons did their parts. Atlanta even beat New Orleans!
The Cowboys? Nah, they didn't get the invite.
Now, let's calm down.
Surely Dallas got us garbage time player props and fantasy points.
Wrong.
Dallas' two touchdown went to Malik Turner. No offense to Turner, but you're not starting him unless you play in a 32-team league.
Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb each failed to score. Zeke fell short of his rushing yards prop.
A bad day in Dallas.
APPARENTLY WINNING IS OVERRATED
Betting the moneyline favorites burned bettors Sunday, especially considering there were seven spreads more than five points.
The favorites went just 5-7 Sunday, and it could have been a 3-9 day had the Vikings or Eagles pulled the upsets.
What an ugly day for the favorites.
YOU CAN ONLY COUNT ON THE DOLPHINS?
SI Sportsbook offered this four-team parlay: Saints, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders all to win SU at odds of +500, boosted from +450.
Only the Dolphins won, and it's not like the others lost to world beaters.
The Saints lost to the Falcons, the Raiders lost to the Giants and the Bengals received a beatdown from the Browns.
That's an ugly one, especially when the Dolphins are the shining star.
THE RAMIFICATIONS
Take a look at some of these anytime TD props the Rams' skill players had:
Cooper Kupp: -163
Darrell Henderson Jr: -138
Robert Woods: +115
Van Jefferson: +170
Tyler Higbee: +190
We don't blame you if you bet Kupp—though we personally would fade those odds—but you were burned if you bet any of those five to score.
The only Rams skill player to find the end zone was Sony Michel at +230.
We can't imagine many of you had a prop bet featuring Michel.
THAT WAS UGLY
They won't be showing the Patrick Mahomes vs. Jordan Love "battle" on any NFL end-of-season highlight tapes.
Love finished with 190 passing yards, while Mahomes had 166 passing yards. Josh Johnson nearly matched their combined output!
The under hit for each of these Mahomes and Love props: passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing completions and passing + rushing yards.
The 5.5 total touchdowns prop also came nowhere close to hitting.
Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK
THE UGLY
NONE OF YOU COULD COVER? NOT ONE?
It's still stunning to digest this a day later, but not one of the seven biggest favorites from Week 9 failed to cover (and they were 2-5 SU).
Lets's take a look at the carnage, in order from smallest to largest spreads:
49ers (-5.5): 31-17 home loss to the Cardinals
Saints (-6.5): 27-25 home loss to the Falcons
Ravens (-7): 34-31 home win over the Vikings
Chiefs (-7): 13-7 home win over the Packers
Rams (-7): 28-16 home loss to the titans
Cowboys (-9.5): 30-16 home loss to the Broncos
Bills (-14.5): 9-6 road loss to the Jaguars
Each of them are on double-secret probation.
SLAMMED THROUGH A TABLE
Maybe the Bills thought it was a preseason game.
It's hard to fathom exactly what happened in Jacksonville.
Buffalo lost to a Jaguars team without two of its best offensive players, despite allowing just nine points.
Nine points.
The Bills ruined a potential nice SI Sportsbook parlay of +450 odds (boosted from +400) of the Bills, Browns, Ravens and Patriots winning.
They also hurt you in player props.
Zack Moss didn't come close to topping his rushing prop total, and Josh Allen (who was the second-best Josh Allen on the field) fell short of his passing yards, passing touchdowns and combined rushing and passing props.
That had to be a long flight back to Buffalo.
IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
This could easily be in the good section, but we're putting this in the ugly section since it's remarkable that the Chiefs are THIS BAD ATS.
Our Frankie Taddeo noted in his mid-week column how the Chiefs just don't cover anymore, and that trend continued in a home game against a backup quarterback who struggled for most of the game to find his receivers.
The Chiefs couldn't cover a 7-point spread, and are now:
• 0-5 ATS at home this year
• 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
• 2-6 ATS in their last eight games
• 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games
At least you can get the Patrick Price on your insurance.
Check Monday's Line for Steelers-Bears
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Betting, Fantasy & NFL:
• MNF Bears-Steelers Best Bets & Props
• Cincinnati Bearcats Fail to Cover...Again
• Week 9 Takeaways
• MLB 2022 Futures
• NFL Futures Values
