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NFL Divisional Round Best Bets and Odds: Chiefs on Upset Alert vs. Bills

Our experts provide their best bets for the four divisional round matchups.

Wild-card weekend quickly eliminated the pretenders from the postseason party and now only the legitimate contenders remain.

From a betting perspective, the favorites were 5-1 against the spread (ATS) with the 49ers pulling off the lone upset in the opening round of the playoffs.

Check NFL Divisional Round Lines at SI Sportsbook

Oct 10, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs against Buffalo Bills outside linebacker A.J. Klein (54) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

As for the divisional playoffs, the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook predict this weekend’s slate of games will be much closer in terms of the final scores. Three of the four games have a spread of less than four points and two are less than a field goal (LA-TB, BUF-KC). The Packers are the biggest favorites, giving the 49ers 5.5 points.

In terms of the scoring potential, don’t hold your breath to see anything like last week when the Chiefs and Bills hung more than 40 points on their opponents. The highest over/under is set at 54 points and is indeed for the Bills and Chiefs matchup. The rest of the games are set at 47 (SF/GB), 47.5 (CIN/TEN) and 48 (LAR/TBB).

So, what is our team of betting analysts banking on this weekend? Let’s dive in! Here's our betting criteria:

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SI Recommends

Jen Piacenti’s Best Bet: Bills +2

If you’re giving me points here, I have to take them. The way these two match up - at least on paper - swings in the Bills' favor. It seems like Vegas agrees, as the Chiefs are only getting two points at Arrowhead. The Bills' defense is simply better, allowing passes of 20+ yards on just 31 of 531 attempts (6%) and only .7 touchdown passes per game - the best mark in the league. The Bills have pressured opposing QBs on 32.8% of passing plays this season (best in the league), while Patrick Mahomes completed just 34.5% of passes (10/29) when under pressure in the last 4 weeks of the regular season. Oh, and Josh Allen is playing on another level while Kansas City has allowed the second-most passing yards and seven rushing touchdowns to opposing QBs this year. This is the marquee matchup of the week, and I wish it could be these two teams in the AFC Championship game, but sadly one of them has to go home. With these two teams playing at such an elite level, give me the points.

Jen's Season Record: 64-59

Frank Taddeo's Best Bet: Titans -3 (Buy hook)

Cincinnati, who had previously lost eight consecutive playoff games, finally broke a playoff drought that dated back to 1991 in last week’s win over the Raiders. The future is bright for Joe Burrow and the Bengals, but their season will come to an end on Saturday. Besides going 5-1 against AFC South rivals, the Titans have beaten San Francisco, Kansas City, Buffalo and the Rams this season. Notice something in common among those teams? They are ALL among the final eight teams playing in the Divisional Round this weekend. Battle tested, impressive victories over superior opponents, home field as well as the return of the best running back in the NFL. Do not overthink this. Tennessee moves on.

Frank's Season Record: 62-70-2

Will Laws’ Best Bet: 49ers-Packers over 47

These two teams combined for 58 points when they met in the regular season and I don’t think the freezing temperatures in Green Bay will be enough to deter another high-scoring affair. Aaron Rodgers will be licking his chops in Lambeau at the sight of San Francisco’s secondary, which leads the league in DPI flags and ranks in the bottom 10 in opposing passer rating. On the other side of the ball, the Packers may feel confident in shutting down the 49ers’ run game after they were mostly able to do so in Week 3—but that was before Deebo Samuel joined the backfield, and Elijah Mitchell was also injured for that matchup. I think those two could feast on a Packers run defense that ranked 30th in yards per carry (4.7). One more thing: the over is 4–0 in Packers playoff games during the Matt LaFleur era.

Will's Season Record: 41-30-1

Bill Enright’s Best Bet: Bills Moneyline (+105)

Love what both of these teams did last week. Absolutely obliterated their opponents. Both are coming off of big impressive, out-of-this-world performances, which levels the emotional playing field. The Bills beat the Chiefs, 38-20, in Kansas City in October and I think they do it again Sunday night. As much as Josh Allen dominates and he’s been terrific, the Bills' defense deserves just as much credit. They are No. 1 in points per play, yards per play and have the lowest 3rd down conversion rate. Take the points (+2) if you want a safer bet, but I’m all over this plus-money moneyline for an upset in the “BBQ Capital of the World."

Bill's Season Record: 56-46-3

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