Betting Roundtable: Which Divisional Round Player Prop Are You Betting?
This weekend’s divisional dound promises to be full of action.
SI Sportsbook has the Chiefs favored by two over the Bills with game an over/under of 54, and the lowest game total of the week is set at 47 for the 49ers-Packers.
The stage is set for a fun weekend of competitive football, and I can see a path for every team to pull off a win this weekend.
Tony Gutierrez/AP
So if you’re having trouble picking between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, or the Titans' run game vs. Joe Burrow, why not pick both? Instead of game picks, I asked the betting team at Sports Illustrated to give me their favorite player props for this weekend. Here are their best bets for the divisional round:
Check the Latest Divisional Round Lines at SI Sportsbook
SI Betting and Fantasy's Bill Enright:
The 49ers' rookie running back has been sensational and a big part of their offense’s success, especially over the last month of the regular season, and it carried into their upset victory in Dallas during wild-card weekend. Mitchell has exceeded this 80.5 level in his last three games and will do it with ease in Green Bay. Why with ease? The Packers' defense allows 4.7 yards per rush, which is second-worst in the NFL. Combine that with the 49ers' proclivity to run the ball (fifth in rushes per game) and the injuries that may limit Jimmy Garoppolo and no bettor should be shocked when Mitchell gallops his way to a 100-yard game.
BET: Elijah Mitchell Over 80.5 rushing yards (-125)
SI Betting's Matt Ehalt:
I really, really like Elijah Mitchell's props since Green Bay can be dicey against the run, but I'll pivot since Bill beat me to the punch. Davante Adams torched the 49ers to the tune of 12 catches for 132 yards and a score in Week 3, and he also posterized them for 10 catches and 173 yards and a touchdown in the 2020 matchup. The Packers' complementary weapons don't scary anyone, and they need Adams to deliver to win. I don't see anyone in San Francisco slowing him down. The Packers force-feed Adams the ball, so we won't have a CeeDee Lamb situation on our hands. Adams seems a safe bet to top this mark, especially when he's easily cleared this bar in the last two meetings. (My Packer-fan brother also recommends grabbing the over on Deebo Samuel's rushing yards, for what it's worth...)
BET: Davante Adams Over 94.5 receiving yards (-125)
SI Betting and Fantasy's Jen Piacenti:
Ok, since Bill and Matt already mentioned Elijah Mitchell and how good the matchup is versus Green Bay, I am going to zag here and say I’ll take Deebo Samuel for over 40.5 rushing yards. Is that number high? Yes. Is Deebo a WR? Yes. But the Niners have now pulled off an upset win two weeks in a row. What did those two wins have in common? Super Swiss Army Knife Avenger Deebo Samuel. Samuel has 18 rushing attempts for 117 yards across the last two contests. If the Niners want to have any chance of winning - or, heck, even covering the 5.5-point spread - they have to get creative. Deebo is almost impossible to defend at this point, so why fix what’s not broken?
BEST BET: Deebo Samuel over 40.5 rushing yards (-118)
Jae C. Hong/AP
SI Betting's Frank Taddeo:
Respected money in Vegas believes there are two 'live underdogs in the divisional round. So why not parlay the two quarterbacks from those respective clubs? Let's focus on their passing touchdown prop markets: Matthew Stafford (Over 1.5) and Josh Allen (Over 1.5). Stafford threw four touchdowns in the first meeting against this Tampa Bay secondary and now he has Odell Beckham Jr. in the second matchup. OBJ, who has scored in six of nine games since being acquired from the Browns, also found the end zone last week against Arizona. Bettors need to factor in that Tampa Bay must also respect Cam Akers, who missed the previous meeting in the regular season, opening up more opportunities for Stafford in the passing game. In the second leg of the parlay we will click the submit button on Buffalo's Josh Allen. The dual-threat signal caller was simply sensational last week against the Patriots and now he will face a Kansas City offense he torched for 315 yards and three touchdown passes in Week 5. The juice on going over on both of these is already on the rise (+200 Stafford; +160 Allen), so we will take away that risk and parlay both plays for a positive return at odds of +143.
BEST BET: Parlay Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns and Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+143)
SI Fantasy's Craig Ellenport:
Matthew Stafford passed for 343 yards in Week 3 against the Buccaneers and there’s no reason to think he won’t at least approach that total again. He’s got plenty of reliable targets, and the one I like most here is tight end Tyler Higbee. Higbee has a prop of 43.5 yards. That’s a number he’s hit in each of his last three weeks, averaging 56.7 in those games. The Bucs will look to keep the pressure on Stafford while paying a lot of attention to Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. That will lead to plenty of opportunities for Higbee. Another interesting play is Van Jefferson, who is +250 for an anytime TD.
BEST BETS: Tyler Higbee over 43.5 yards (-115); Van Jefferson anytime TD (+250)
SI.com's Josh Rosenblat:
The NFL's best fullback gets even better in the playoffs. The 49ers led the league in using 21 personnel during the regular season, opting for a two back, one tight end set on 36% of its offensive snaps, according to SharpFootballStats.com. That helped Kyle Juszczyk appear on nearly 56% of San Francisco's offensive snaps. In last week's win in Dallas, Juszczyk was on the field for 62% of the snaps and has fallen below that number in just one of his four playoff games under Shanahan. In six career playoff games across his time in Baltimore and San Francisco, Juszczyk has gotten average of 2.5 targets per game and has eclipsed 10.5 receiving yards in four of them. Though he didn't feature much as a pass catcher when the Niners bested Green Bay in the 2019 playoffs, he did rack up 37 yards on four catches in a 30–28 loss to the Packers earlier this season.
BEST BET: Kyle Juszczyk over 10.5 receiving yards (-130)
MMQB's Conor Orr:
AJ Dillon over 40 yards is the biggest lock of the playoffs, in fact, I wish I could lock that bet in for every round from here to the Super Bowl. The Packers drafted Dillon to be their playoff closer and there isn't a defense in the NFL who feels like matching a 250-lb bowling ball like that during the coldest months in Green Bay. Outside of Aaron Rodgers, Dillon will be the talk of the playoffs, taking the torch from Aaron Jones as the Packers' feature back for 2022 and beyond.
BEST BET: AJ Dillon Over 40.5 yards (-125)
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Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook
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