NBA Spread, Over/Under and Prop Bets: Lakers-76ers, Timberwolves-Warriors
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Two of the league’s top scorers face off in Philadelphia when LeBron James’ Lakers take on Joel Embiid’s 76ers.
L.A. is fresh off a win in Brooklyn and is looking to score another win against a top-flight Eastern Conference team and Philly is going for its third win in a row.
On the West Coast, the Warriors host the Timberwolves for the second time this season, having won the first meeting at home in November. Minnesota won the rematch two weeks ago in Minneapolis.
Today’s guest picker is SI Betting editor Matt Ehalt and we’re making ‘S-O/U-P’ bets for both nationally televised matchups tonight.
What does that mean exactly? S=Spread; O/U=Over/Under; and P=Prop. Follow along to see which teams and bets Ehalt and I like Thursday night.
Season record: 76-77-1
Guest pickers: 59-89
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Frank Franklin II/AP
Los Angeles Lakers (24-24) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (28-19)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Lakers +2.5 (-110) | 76ers -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers (+115) | 76ers (-138)
Total: Under 218.5 (-110) | Over 218.5 (-110)
Injuries: Lakers F Anthony Davis—Day-to-day; 76ers G Seth Curry—Out; 76ers F Danny Green—Out
Lakers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 20-28
O/U Record: 27-21
Points Per Game/Rank: 111.2/8
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 112.3/27
Los Angeles’ East Coast road trip continues Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Lakers are 2-1 on their six-game road trip and are coming off a win over the Nets on Tuesday. LeBron James continues to do it all for L.A. He’s averaging more than 30 PPG for the second month in a row and has led the team in scoring in each of the last 18 games. Anthony Davis played his first game since Dec. 17 on Tuesday, logging 25 minutes and scoring just eight points.
76ers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 24-23
O/U Record: 19-27-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 107.7/21
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 105.7/8
Philadelphia opened up its five-game homestand with a 10-point win against the Pelicans on Tuesday. The 76ers are 9-3 in January and just two games out of first place in the East thanks to Joel Embiid’s MVP-level play this month. Embiid has scored 32 or more points in six straight games and averages 34.5 for the month.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread pick: 76ers -2.5
The Lakers don’t have an answer for Embiid—no one does. A fully healthy Davis could run with the 76ers' star and hope to contain him, but with Davis in just his second game back Embiid has the potential to keep his 30-plus-point streak going and power Philadelphia to a win. L.A.’s win against Brooklyn was impressive, but it hasn't strung together back-to-back quality outings for weeks now and I don’t see the Lakers keeping this game close enough—or winning—in a hostile road environment.
Over/Under pick: Over 218.5
For all the issues Los Angeles has, it can still score with the league’s best teams. Lakers games go over at one of the highest rates in basketball. Even against a stout 76ers' defense, I think James and L.A. can score in the 105-110 range needed to send this game over. Philadelphia, outside of Embiid, isn’t menacing on offense but the team has put up high scoring outputs during Embiid’s recent scoring tear.
Prop: LeBron James Over 28.5 Points
James has gone over this figure in his last four games and is putting together his second consecutive month averaging better than 30 PPG. The Lakers have needed James to shoulder the load on offense and he has in the way that only he can. They will need 30-plus from him against Philadelphia to have a shot—I think he delivers.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s bets:
Spread pick: Lakers + 2.5
I'm going to buy that the Lakers' win over the Nets was the start of a turnaround. The Lakers are too talented to be this mediocre. It's not easy to win in Philadelphia, but LeBron is doing it all and Anthony Davis' return could be a spark. It won't be easy to win in Philadelphia, but I like taking the points here.
Over/Under pick: Over 218.5
With no concerns about back-to-backs, I like the over. This should be a good matchup and these teams can push this game into the 100s. The over is just 8-13 in Philadelphia's home games, but the Lakers' road games go over a majority of the time. I'm guessing this will be played at a pace that ultimately tops this number.
Prop: Joel Embiid under 33.5 points
Yes, I can read the box scores showing Embiid has scored at least 38 points in his last four games and is averaging 42.5 points over his last four. But he failed to clear this number in the eight games before this, and 33.5 is a high number! Here's to think he cools off a bit and just misses this mark. Embiid has finished with 31 or 32 points seven times this month, making this mark all the more fascinating.
Stacy Bengs/AP
Minnesota Timberwolves (24-23) vs. Golden State Warriors (35-13)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Timberwolves +5.5 (+100) | Warriors -6.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Timberwolves (+205) | Warriors (-250)
Total: Under 228.5 (-110) | Over 227.5 (-110)
Injuries: Timberwolves G Jaylen Nowell—Out; Timberwolves G Patrick Beverly—Out; Warriors F Andre Iguodola—Out; Warriors F Draymond Green—Out; Warriors C James Wiseman—Out
Timberwolves Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 24-23
O/U Record: 26-21
Points Per Game/Rank: 111/9
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 109.9/20
Minnesota has won four of its last five games, with two coming against the Steph Curry-less Warriors and Nets sans Kevin Durant. The Timberwolves are over .500 on the backs of their Big 3 of Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards, who went for 40 last time out. Minnesota plays fast, leading the league in three-point attempts per game and taking the fourth-most field goals per game.
Warriors Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 6-4
ATS Record: 26-19-3
O/U Record: 17-29-2
Points Per Game/Rank: 109.9/12
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 101.6/1
Golden State handled two strong conference opponents in its last two games in spite of Curry’s play. The Warriors beat the Mavericks by 38 and edged out the Jazz by two points with Curry totaling 31 points in the two contests. He did not play when these teams met two weeks ago and Golden State fell by 20. Klay Thompson is slowly working his way back—he played a season-high 26 minutes Tuesday and scored 15 points. The Warriors are still missing their defensive skeleton key and offensive distributor, Draymond Green, who last played Jan. 5.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread pick: Timberwolves +5.5
I don’t want to draw too much from Minnesota’s win over Golden State, but the Timberwolves have been playing very respectable basketball in January. Minnesota is 7-3 Against the Spread as five-plus-point underdogs and has covered four of their last five games under those circumstances. The Timberwolves' trio has enough to keep this game close, especially if they can keep Curry from getting comfortable while the Warriors long for a fully healthy Thompson and Green’s return.
Over/Under pick: Under 228.5
Warriors games go under at the second-highest rate in the NBA. Their elite defense deserves credit for that, but this also isn’t the Golden State offense of old stringing together 40-point third quarters. I think Curry slows down this game—the Timberwolves play at a blistering pace—and keeps the total in the 100s to low 110s.
Prop: D’Angelo Russell Over 18.5 Points
Russell’s season average of 19.1 points is slightly higher than his point total, and he’s averaging a season-best 20.2 PPG this month. He’s gone over this figure in his last three games and his shooting percentages are through the roof in January, though his attempts are down. With defensive attention likely on Edwards, who’s coming off a big game, and Towns, the team’s No. 1 threat, Russell can get some open outside looks.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s bets:
Spread pick: Warriors -5.5
I'm not fading the Warriors at home here, especially after their last two wins. The Warriors beat the Timberwolves by 13 at home earlier in the season, and we're banking on them wanting some revenge for the 20-point loss in Minneapolis.
Over/Under pick: Under 228.5
The Warriors have topped this total just once in their last six games, and that game went to overtime (121-117 loss to the Pacers). These teams cleared this mark in the first meeting, but not in the second. This seems like a big number for the teams to clear, especially considering Golden States' defensive prowess. Let's play it safe.
Prop: Steph Curry over 24.5 points
Curry is due to for a big game. This number is rather reasonable. Curry didn't play last time against Minnesota, but scored 25 against it in the first matchup. Let's bank on Curry getting back to form tonight after a rather pedestrian streak.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7:30 p.m. main slate)
PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, Timberwolves (FD: $7,200 | DK: $7,500)
PG/SG Tyrese Maxey, 76ers ($5,800 | $6,400)
SF Andrew Wiggins, Warriors ($6,000 | $5,700)
PF Jarred Vanderbilt, Timberwolves ($6,100 | $5,500)
C Kevon Looney, Warriors ($4,900 | $4,700)
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