NFL Divisional Round Bad Beats and Big Payouts
These are the games we'll be talking about decades from now. A weekend of glorious NFL action that may be the greatest playoff weekend in the history of the sport.
Four walk-off finishes. Three upsets. Two top-five quarterbacks losing at home. And one of the greatest games in NFL history.
Bills-Chiefs will forever be one of those games where you can tell people exactly where you were at that moment in history.
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Not only did those four games provide great entertainment, they also delivered some top-notch betting goodness that hopefully netted you some major dough.
The Bills-Chiefs game, as expected, cashed plenty of bets.
I'll admit that even as a diehard fantasy football player, I had no idea who ... (checks Google) ... Kendall Blanton was before he cashed a first touchdown prop at 80-1.
We apologize in advance for those whose Bills bets and futures turned to dust. "Thirteen Seconds" unfortunately joins Wide Right and the Music City Miracle.
Let's break it all down: The good, the bad and the ugly from the divisional round.
Charlie Riedel/AP
THE GOOD
Legendary performances
Watching Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen trade barbs and leave it all on the field Sunday night reminded us of the moment from Rocky where a spent and exhausted Apollo Creed says to Rocky Balboa at the end of their dramatic fight, “Ain't gon' be no rematch,” and an equally tired Balboa replies, “Don't want one.”
We all hope there will be plenty of rematches, especially since these two elite quarterbacks delivered for their backers!
Mahomes and Allen both cleared their rushing yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, completions, passing and rushing yards and longest completion props, and neither threw an interception. Mahomes also topped his longest rush prop and, as we'll detail later, finished as the weekend's leading rusher.
You will be telling your grandchildren about this game (and hopefully about all the money you won thanks to the quarterbacks!).
Cashing Those Bets
We will cover both sides of the result, but let's start with the positives from the Chiefs rallying to beat the Bills.
The Chiefs won on the moneyline (-133) and covered a 2.5-point spread (-110), and their win cashed two profitable parlays at SI Sportsbook.
Bettors cashed at +600 odds (up from +500) that the Chiefs would cover a 1.5-point spread, over 54.5 points and Tyreek Hill would top 74.5 receiving yards.
Travis Kelce scoring the game's final touchdown also cashed at +600 odds (up from +550) that the Chiefs would win, Mahomes would top 299.5 passing yards and Kelce would score. (A shoutout to my father, who cashed his Kelce parlay on this score).
The Chiefs also rewarded bettors at +225 odds that they would finish the weekend with the most points.
Just an epic, historical and profitable victory.
A Halftime Tie!
Thank you, Harrison Butker!
Butker missing a field goal at the end of the first half sent the Chiefs and Bills into the half tied at 14. That tie score rewarded bettors with +950 odds who bet that the first half would end in a tie. How about that?
Four Scores and 40-1 odds
Gabe Davis' record-setting four-touchdown game also rewarded those brave enough to bet Davis to lead all players in receiving yards during the divisional round.
Davis' 201 yards topped Cooper Kupp's 183 yards and rewarded his backers with 40-1 odds! What a Herculean effort that went for naught.
Anytime touchdowns and +4000 odds. That's what Gabe Davis does.
John Raoux/AP
A Bad, Bad man
You can't stop Cooper Kupp.
You can only hope to contain him.
(Todd Bowles apparently didn't get this message on the final two plays. What were those calls, Todd?)
Kupp's monster day—nine catches, 183 yards, one touchdown—put money in your pockets.
The receiver cleared his receiving yards prop (99.5) at -115 odds, his longest catch prop (27.5) at -113 odds, and his final two catches on the Rams' game-winning drive allowed him to clear his receptions prop (7.5) at -146 odds.
Kupp also cashed these two boosted parlays at SI Sportsbook:
• +600 odds (up from +550): Rams win, Kupp TD, Kupp over 114.5 receiving yards
• +250 odds (up from +200): Kupp and Hill both score
What an absolute stud.
Kendall Who?
The weekend's best anytime touchdown prop belongs to a tight end whom I'm not even sure anyone in the deepest of fantasy leagues started this year.
Kendall Blanton entered Sunday with four career catches for 37 yards and no touchdowns dating to 2019. Let's be honest: I'm not sure if even his family would have bet on him to score Sunday. But he scored the first touchdown in Rams-Bucs!
Those who somehow bet Blanton to be the first touchdown scorer received an 80-1 payout!!! His regular anytime touchdown odds were +1600.
If you somehow bet Blanton to score, please rub it in and let us know where you will be vacationing with these winnings.
Backing the Underdogs
After five of the six favorites covered and won last weekend—Dallas being the lone exception—the underdogs returned the favor this weekend. The Bengals (+165), 49ers (+205) and Rams (+125) all provided quality returns.
We're including this in the good section, rather than the bad or ugly, since underdogs ruled the day during the 2021 NFL season.
This weekend felt like a return to normalcy, rather than a deviation.
SI Sportsbook Goodness
SI Sportsbook always offers intriguing parlays for each game. The underdogs' strong showings this weekend netted some profitable returns.
Here are the best parlays that cashed for each underdog:
• 49ers-Packers (+875): 49ers win, Packers win first half, under 47.5 points
• Bengals-Titans (+700): Bengals win, Bengals win first half, under 47.5 points
• Rams-Buccaneers (+525): Rams win, Rams first to 20 points, over 48.5 points
Above and Beyond
You may not have expected this considering a 19-16 final, but the Bengals-Titans game actually rewarded those who invested in the receivers.
Ja'Marr Chase (-125), A.J. Brown (-120), Tee Higgins (-118) and Julio Jones (-125) all topped their receiving yards props.
Chase (-125) and Brown (-125) both cleared their longest catch props, while Higgins (-150) and Jones (-133) each cashed the over on their receptions props.
Brown also made one of the more ridiculous one-handed touchdown grabs you'll see, further rewarding his backers.
Jones' backers also may have cashed this boosted parlay at +350 odds (up from +320) that both Jones and George Kittle (63) would top 49.5 receiving yards.
First, Last, Anytime
While none came close to Blanton, here are some other decent payouts courtesy of first, last and anytime touchdown props:
• Packers RB AJ Dillon: First touchdown +875 (+125 anytime)
• Titans WR A.J. Brown: Last touchdown +850 (+130 anytime)
• Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Anytime touchdown +825
• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: Last touchdown +750 (-105 anytime)
• Bills RB Devin Singletary: First touchdown +725 (-105 anytime)
• Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette: Last touchdown +720 (+100 anytime)
Keeping up With Jones
The 49ers-Packers game did not deliver much player prop victories, but Aaron Jones was the exception.
Jones cleared his combined yards prop of 80.5 by totaling 170 yards. Jones actually led all players in that game with 129 receiving yards, despite being a running back. Jones also easily topped his receptions prop of 3.5 by catching nine balls.
Good as Gould
We always appreciate a good kicking prop and Robbie Gould delivered Saturday night.
Gould's walk-off field goal cashed the over on his total points prop (6.5) and field goals (1.5) at -110 and +110 odds, respectively.
That's how you cash some bets in style.
The Final Run
Fournette's final rush allowed him to clear his rushing yards prop of 49.5 at -110 odds.
On fourth-and-1, Fournette ran outside for a 9-yard touchdown that gave him 51 rushing yards and, as previously mentioned, cashed his last touchdown prop.
A profitable run for all his backers!
Matt Ludtke/AP
THE BAD
So Close, Deebo...
Lets' pour one out for those who backed Deebo Samuels' rushing yards prop.
Samuel's prop: 39.5 yards.
Samuel's final line: 10 carries, 39 yards.
Brutal. That would have cashed at -120 odds.
Samuel also did not find the end zone against the Packers, but no 49ers offensive player did. He tallied just 83 total yards and three catches.
Grounded
While we detailed the strong days by the receivers, neither running back in the Bengals-Titans game topped their rushing yards prop.
The returning Derrick Henry did not come close to clearing his 84.5 rushing yards prop, totaling just 62 yards while being out-rushed by D'Onta Foreman (66). Henry just could not get going like he normally does, with the long layoff surely a factor.
Joe Mixon came close to clearing his 58.5 rushing yards prop, but fell just short with 54.5 yards. Mixon at least cleared his receiving yards prop.
No points
If you bet the overs Saturday, you had a bad day.
Neither game came close to topping its projections, with the four teams combing for 58 points. The teams totaled just five touchdowns, and one came via special teams.
Double the Pain
Cam Akers had a day to forget that burned bettors.
Akers finished with 48 rushing yards, just missing his rushing yards prop of 48.5 yards at -110 odds. He also finished with 68 combined yards, just short of his 70.5 yards prop at -113 odds. Akers also did not cash his longest rush prop.
Add in his two fumbles and not many people were happy with Akers on Sunday.
Failure to Cash
The home teams flopping ruined some potential solid paydays.
SI Sportsbook offered boosted +150 odds (up from +110 that the Packers and Titans would both win, and boosted +250 odds (up from +190) that the Chiefs and Buccaneers would prevail. And let's not forget the moneyline flops by the three home favorites: Titans (-200), Packers (-250) and Buccaneers (-150).
That hurts the wallet.
Mark Zaleski/AP
THE UGLY
13 Seconds
The Bills just had to play good defense for 13 seconds to win Sunday.
And they let them off the hook!
Let's start with some bets that did not cash because of the Bills' failure to prevent Mahomes from driving for a field goal.
Buffalo would have cashed on the moneyline at +110 odds and covered the 2.5-point spread at -110 odds had it won.
But here's where it hurts.
SI Sportsbook offered boosted +700 odds (up from +650) that the Bills would win and Allen would throw 4+ touchdown passes. His final pass to Davis would have cashed that bet. The Bills were just 13 seconds from delivering multiple betting wins.
This one is going to take a while to recover from.
Ryan Tanne-downhill
The Titans lost for a plethora of reasons Saturday, but none bigger than quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, to be blunt, had a miserable game.
And that burned anyone who backed him.
You may wonder why some would back Tannehill, but Cincinnati's strong rushing defense and porous secondary presented the chance for a solid game.
Tannehill didn't deliver.
The under cashed on Tannehill's rushing yards, passing yards and combined yards, and he also topped his interceptions prop (by throwing three interceptions).
There are going to be lots of questions about Tannehill heading into the 2022 season.
An Ugly Game
While 49ers-Packers delivered in the final five minutes, the game did not go well for those who backed player props.
Elijah Mitchell, Dillon, Jones and Samuel each failed to top their rushing yards props, and Mitchell also did not clear his combined yards prop.
The under hit for Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo on their passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing attempts and passing plus rushing yards.
Rodgers' meh day hurt those who invested in boosted +700 odds that both he and Joe Burrow would throw for 300-plus passing yards.
Davante Adams, Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Allen Lazard each failed to hit the over on their receiving yards prop, with Aiyuk and Lazard combining for just six yards.
Adams made a valiant effort but his 90 yards just fell short of his 92.5 yards prop.
That's a lot of unders!
D'Oh
Those who backed Foreman to tally the most rushing yards this weekend had to be sick to their stomachs after missing out on a 30-1 payday.
Let's break it down.
First, you gambled on a long shot with Foreman at +3000 odds. Not sure we'd advise that one, but with big odds there's little risk aside from the investment.
Foreman then somehow out-rushed Henry, 66-62, and then navigated two more games without anyone topping him.
All you needed was 66 yards to hold up in Bills-Chiefs.
Devin Singletary didn't clear 66 yards! Neither ddid any Chiefs back!
But both Mahomes and Allen did.
Allen: 68 yards.
Mahomes: 69 yards.
The quarterbacks ruined your 30-1 profit.
Unreal.
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