NBA Championship Future Odds: Suns, Nets Lead Field
The Bucks were the lowest-seeded team to win the NBA Finals in the last 10 years. Milwaukee went 46-26 and finished as the No. 3 seed in the East en route to its championship. It also broke the streak of nine consecutive 1 or 2 seeds to win it all.
So, there’s a relatively strong correlation between regular season success and postseason success in recent years. That’s not surprising, but the track record of teams with the best record winning the championship is a bit more spotty.
The Warriors did so in the 2016-17 season, as well as the 2014-15 season. The Spurs also did it in the 2013-14 season. Of course, Golden State famously flamed out in the Finals after setting the regular season wins record in 2016.
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The Suns, owners of the NBA's best record, are the current favorite at SI Sportsbook to not only get back to the NBA Finals but win it all this time around. Phoenix returned the bulk of the team that won the West last season and largely held pat at the trade deadline, making a few minor additions while Eastern Conference contenders like the Nets and 76ers exchanged major pieces in their championship quests.
For the final installment of this NBA futures betting series, I’m looking at the championship contenders and making the case for the favorite, a value bet and a sleeper pick.
Suns +425
Nets +500
Bucks +550
Warriors +550
76ers +700
(All stats updated as of Feb. 17)
Matt York/AP
The Favorite: Suns (+425)
Phoenix has a 48-10 record entering the All-Star break, the best mark in the league by 6.5 games. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Suns are the only team projected to surpass 60 wins. They rank third in offensive and defensive rating and have the No. 1 net rating in basketball. Phoenix withstood long absences from Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton and rattled off an 18-game winning streak after a 1-3 start.
The Suns have just two losses since New Year’s and only one of their defeats all season came at the hands of a team outside of a play-in tournament spot (the Kings in the fourth game of the season).
Ayton is scoring more than he did a season ago, Chris Paul leads the league in assists and is averaging more than 10 dimes for the first time since 2015-16 and Booker is, simply put, a bucket. He’s shooting his best percentage from three and matching a career-high in attempts.
By most metrics, Phoenix is a better team than it was a season ago. Their biggest threat in the West is the Warriors, the only team to beat the Suns twice this season.
Locking up the top seed will be important for Phoenix, which enjoyed home court throughout the postseason on its Finals run last season. The Suns’ Big 3 of Paul, Ayton and Booker can hold up against pretty much any trio in the NBA. What makes Phoenix such a big threat is the core they have behind those three: long capable shotmakers, many of whom have been in high-pressure situations before. I hope you got the Suns before they became the favorites, but they’re still a good bet as is.
Value Bet: Bucks (+550)
To be the champs. you’ve got to beat the champs, right?
The Bucks aren’t as dominant as they have been in recent years, but that was the recipe that led to them finally breaking through last season. After years of locking up the top seed, Milwaukee coasted a bit and survived the NBA playoff gauntlet with some heroics from one Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks have the league’s sixth-best offensive rating and 12th-best defensive rating, which adds up to the No. 9 net rating. It’s been a little more of the Antetokounmpo show this regular season, which has worked out just fine for Mike Budenholzer’s squad. The two-time MVP is assembling another season MVP-worthy season, vying for his first scoring title and scoring 50 points in a game earlier this week.
Milwaukee is not perfect. They’re just 16-13 in away games and their scoring and defensive stats have tailed off from a season ago. But last season showed that no one can guard Antetokounmpo, and sometimes all you need is the best player on the court to win four games for four rounds. I feel like the Bucks aren’t necessarily getting the respect they deserve as defending champions just two games out of first place in their conference. Milwaukee is a great value at these odds.
John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports
Sleeper: Bulls (+2800)
Picking the Bulls to win anything would have sounded ridiculous a year ago. It’s still hard to believe. It’s been five years since Chicago sniffed the playoffs. The team assembled this summer in the Windy City is more than capable of going all the way.
DeMar DeRozan is putting together an MVP season and the best of his long career. And Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, who were waiting for DeRozan in Chicago when he arrived, are having phenomenal seasons in their own right.
Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, stout wing defenders who can also score and distribute on offense, have been banged up most of the season but Coby White and rookie Ayo Dosunmu have stepped up in their absence.
It’s amazing the Bulls have the best record in the East given the injuries they’ve dealt with this season. Patrick Williams, who had a solid rookie year for Chicago, is also on the verge of returning. What will this tea be capable of if and when it gets healthy?
Offense is where the Bulls thrive, ranking fourth in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating. There is a rather large disparity between their home (23-8) and road (15-13) records, and several teams are on their heels for the conference's top spot.
A bet on the Bulls is a bet on the potential for what they can be with their full roster, though it’s also a bet on what they’ve done so far. If a team needs a bucket in the fourth quarter, DeRozan is the go-to guy this season. That matters come playoff time.
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