The Defensive Player of the Year Race Is More Open Than Ever

The rise of new faces in the league has made this one of the most fascinating DPOY award races in quite some time.

So, who’s going to win Defensive Player of the Year? We’re at the All-Star break and thanks to various injuries (sorry Bam Adebayo), Ben Simmons deciding not to play half the season, possible voter fatigue and a plethora of worthy candidates staking claim, this year’s race is as fascinating as any in quite some time.

There are betting favorites because everything has odds, but handicapping Defensive Player of the Year only confirms how unpredictable it really is. The two leaders, Draymond Green and Rudy Gobert, were heavy favorites a couple months ago, but a calf injury has kept Green out for all but two games in 2022 and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. Gobert, meanwhile, just missed nine straight games and 14 out of a recent 19-game stretch.

With just under two months left in the regular season, it’s not impossible for either to return sooner than later, dominate as they once were and remind everyone why they’re deserving of another Defensive Player of the Year trophy. The Jazz rank 11th in defensive rating, but when Gobert is on the floor they’re once again in first. He’s still the premier deterrer of shots at the rim, as measured here. Golden State’s league-leading defense is at its best when Green is on the floor—though it’s still No. 1 when he doesn’t play—and he’s first by a mile in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus.

Still, a few new faces in the crowd (and a couple familiar ones) warrant serious recognition. In no particular order, here’s a sampling:

Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies

In late January, Ja Morant made a push for Jackson Jr. “He’s protecting the rim real well for us. Had multiple games with five blocks. He’s … almost leading the league in blocks. So I feel like he deserves a lot more credit on that end, that he’s not getting after I seen they released the Defensive Player of the [Year] award rankings or whatever.”

Morant wasn’t lying. Jackson Jr.’s emergence as a feared defensive presence has allowed Memphis to flex its muscles as the league’s newest backyard bully. He has blocked more shots than anybody, with an NBA-high seven games of five blocks or more (Myles Turner is second with six games) and ranks second in block rate.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that he spends most of his minutes at the four, beside the paint-bound Steven Adams. That level of versatility increases Jackson Jr.’s appeal. He can start on stretch fours, hold his own switching onto guards and be comfortable out along the perimeter when Memphis dials up its aggression covering pick-and-rolls. There aren’t a lot of big men who can navigate a possession as seen below like Jackson Jr. does.

The downside is only Houston’s Jae’Sean Tate has committed more total fouls (including offensive) this season and only Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels has committed more shooting fouls. (Only Atlanta’s John Collins has played more fourth quarter minutes with four personal fouls than Jackson Jr.)

That’s not great. But the good outweighs the bad. When he’s at the five, opponents are held to 55.6% shooting at the rim, an incredibly low number that underscores Jackson Jr.’s impeccable timing, burst and length in the paint. The Grizzlies would not have one of the best defenses in the NBA without him.

Mikal Bridges, Suns

Elite on-ball perimeter defenders are one of the most valuable commodities in this era. Every night, their job is to harass the opponent’s top threat. They pick them up 80 feet from their own basket and turn all progress into a physical confrontation. Their one-on-one battles function within a team concept, though, often making it hard to appreciate the subtle ways they completely change an entire game.

The impact Bridges has on a highly disciplined team is both noticeable and understated. He’s relentless fighting over the top in a pick-and-roll, then either recovering back in front of his man or bothering the shot from behind.

But his feel off the ball is equally critical. Bridges always knows when to be in the gap, or pounce on his man to deny a pass back. This activity can alter a possession before it even begins. Watch what happens to the Nets after he denies James Harden the inbound and then refuses to let him take the ball up the court.

Bridges’s individual numbers and on/off splits don’t sit near the top of certain statistical leaderboards but that’s because it would be almost impossible to do so while routinely matched up against Steph Curry, Luka Dončić, Ja Morant, Trae Young, etc. Bridges is responsible for a high-usage All-Star who can score and pass almost every night. When they’re on the floor, so is he. When they rest, he gets to take a breather. That value, particularly in the minds of teammates who don’t have to do what he does, is unquantifiable. And as someone who’s never missed a game in his entire career while currently leading the Suns (a team with two of its own All-Stars) in minutes per game, few are more reliable at their job than Bridges.

(Philadelphia’s Matisse Thybulle would probably win this award if he played more. Heading into Tuesday night’s action, there was a three-way tie for the league lead in deflections per game, at 3.9. Two of them, Dejounte Murray and Fred VanVleet, average 34.4 and 38.4 minutes, respectively. Matisse Thybulle is the third. He plays [squints hard] 26.7 minutes per game. Incredible stuff.)

Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers

Joel Embiid, 76ers

For more on Allen, here’s a deep look at the growth he’s made as a versatile anchor for one of the top defensive teams in the league. (Side prediction: after this year, the next nine DPOY trophies will belong to Cavaliers rookie Evan Mobley.)

For more on Embiid, watch a Sixers game and count how many mid-range pull-ups would’ve been a contested layup had the ball-handler not been petrified to push his luck and go all the way downhill.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

In a vacuum, it’s hard to say anyone is “better” on defense than Giannis. As seen in the Finals, his physical gifts can take over in the biggest spot possible, erasing baskets that would otherwise be a virtual certainty. He has nothing to prove at this point and already won the award two seasons ago. This season has brought a new challenge, though.

Thanks to Brook Lopez’s injury, Giannis is playing more at the five this year than ever before, dropping with a higher frequency when his man sets a ball screen. The end result is typically the same as it ever was, though. The Bucks are extremely hard to score on when Antetokounmpo is in the game. Him actually taking home his second DPOY could be difficult, though, considering Milwaukee had the best defense in the league when he won and currently ranks 12th.

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Rob Williams, Celtics

Williams belongs to augmented reality as a twitchy, ubiquitous presence whose greatest weakness is his own (totally rational though unrealistic) desire to send every single floater into the fourth row. There aren’t five more disruptive forces in the NBA today.

This season Williams has finally been healthy, averaging over 10 more minutes than he did last year, in a switch-almost-everything system that’s allowed him to wreak all the havoc from different spots on the floor. A whopping 58 of his blocks—out of 103 total—have been on shots launched between 4-14 feet from the basket. (Myles Turner ranks second, at 43.) Williams also ranks second in blocked long twos and third on non-corner threes. He swats everything because he exists everywhere.

According to NBA.com, there are 131 players who’ve defended at least 500 shots this season. Those launched near Williams are 6.1% less accurate than they’d be on average, which is the third-largest difference (trailing Jarrett Allen and LeBron James) among that group.

The Celtics have the second-best defense in the NBA and its most stout five-man unit by a significant margin, largely because Williams is able to simultaneously defend so many different positions while also cleaning up everybody else’s mistakes on the back end. (And maybe the most amazing note of all: he hardly ever fouls! Williams is whistled for as many personal fouls per 36 minutes as Devin Booker.)

On one play he can be a traditional rim protector, dropping in the pick-and-roll, winning a game of cat-and-mouse with the ball-handler. In the next, he’ll look like he’s from the year 2074.

There are several All-Defensive team candidates in Boston right now. (Marcus Smart could easily have his own write-up on this list.) But nobody reimagines what their ceiling can be quite like Rob Williams.

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