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Luka Doncic’s History of Delivering for Bettors in Elimination Games

Analyzing Luka Dončić’s historic showings in elimination games with the Mavericks facing elimination Tuesday against the Warriors in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals.

Luka Dončić’s string of phenomenal playoff performances continued in Sunday’s Game 3. The leading scorer in the postseason brought his average up to 32.1 ppg with a 40-point performance in the Mavericks’ 109-100 loss to the Warriors.

His props for Tuesday’s Game 4 are out and bettors should know Dončić’s history in elimination games and just how good he’s already been in these playoffs.

Dončić’s point total is set at 34.5, rebounds are set at 9.5 and assists are at 7.5. In addition to his playoff-best scoring average, he is averaging 9.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game in the postseason.

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Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts after a basket during the first half against the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the NBA basketball playoffs Western Conference finals, Sunday, May 22, 2022, in Dallas.
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Dončić has gone over his Game 4 point total in three of his last four games, one of which was an elimination game—Game 7 against the Suns. His scoring average of 38 ppg in elimination games is the highest in NBA history, albeit across just four opportunities in four NBA seasons (three postseasons).

In Dončić’s second season, he went for 42 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in a Game 6 loss to the Clippers in the first round. Dallas drew Los Angeles in the opening round again the following year and lost in seven games. Dončić assembled a jaw-dropping stat line of 46 points, seven rebounds and 14 assists.

In Game 6 and 7 last round against the Suns, Dončić tallied 33 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in Game 6 and followed with 35 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in the blowout victory that clinched the series.

Big scoring nights for Dončić have not necessarily translated to success for the Mavericks, though. Dallas is 0-3 ATS when he scores 40 or more this postseason (2-6 all-time). The Mavericks are 1.5-point favorites on their home court in Game 4 and have yet to cover the spread against Golden State.

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