Phillies-Padres MLB National League Championship Series Odds and Betting Preview

The fifth-seeded Padres are slight favorites at SI Sportsbook over the sixth-seeded Phillies in the NLCS.

Author:
Jennifer Piacenti
Publish date:
Oct 17, 2022

In this story:

San Diego Padres

Philadelphia Phillies

The stage is set for the National League Championship Series as the Padres and Phillies will compete for the pennant in a seven-game series.

The fifth-seeded Padres host the sixth-seeded Phillies in Game 1 in San Diego on Tuesday night. Both teams entered the postseason via a wild-card berth, proving anything can happen in October. The Phillies, an 87-win team, ousted the reigning World Series champion Braves, a 101-win team, to advance to the NLCS. The 89-win Padres secured their spot in the NLCS by ousting the team with the most wins (111) and the World Series favorite in the Dodgers.

Needless to say, these teams are hot.

Bet on Phillies-Padres at SI Sportsbook

Oct 15, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) reacts after hitting an RBI single in the sixth inning against the Atlanta Braves in game four of the NLDS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. — Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Phillies-Padres NLCS Series Odds

Series odds: Phillies (+100) | Padres (-125)
Padres odds: SDP in 4 (+1100) | 5 (+550) | 6 (+450) | 7 (+450)
Phillies odds: PHI in 4 (+1300) | 5 (+650) | 6 (+500) | 7 (+500)
Series length: Four games (+600) | Five (+250) | Six (+180) | Seven (+200)
Total Games: Over 5.5 games (-200) | Under 5.5 (+150 | O 6.5 (+200) | U 6.5 (-275)
Series handicap - Padres: SDP -1.5 (+150) | SDP -2.5 (+350)
Series handicap - Phillies: PHI + 1.5 (-213) | PHI +2.5 (-500)
Game 1 at Padres: Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2022 | 8:03 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 2 at Padres: Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022 | 4:35 p.m. ET | TBS
Game 3 at Phillies: Friday, Oct. 21, 2022 | 7:37 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 4 at Phillies: Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022 | 7:45 p.m. ET | Fox
Game 5 at Phillies (if necessary): Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022 | 2:37 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 6 at Padres (if necessary): Monday, Oct. 24, 2022 | 8:03 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 7 at Padres (if necessary): Friday, Oct. 25, 2022 | 8:03 p.m. ET | Fox

These teams are incredibly evenly matched based on their regular-season stats.

Padres and Phillies starting pitchers both pitched to an identical 3.80 ERA. The Padres’ bullpen was slightly better, pitching to a 3.83 ERA and converting 68.6% of its save opportunities, while the Phillies’ bullpen managed only a 4.27 ERA while converting 70% of its save opportunities.

Offensively, the Phillies had a slight edge on the season. They scored 4.61 runs per game, while the Padres scored 4.31.

The Phillies won four of seven regular-season matchups, winning three of four in San Diego while losing two of three at home. But the regular season was a long time ago. What have these teams been doing in the postseason?

Again, these teams looked fairly evenly matched. The Phillies are hitting .237 and scoring 5.33 runs per game, while the Padres are batting .239 and scoring 4.43 runs per game. The Phillies have posted a 2.55 ERA compared to the Padres’ 2.88 ERA.

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As for hot hitters—these teams certainly have them. For the Phillies, Bryce Harper is hitting .435 with six extra-base hits - including three homers - and a 1.437 OPS across six postseason games. Add to that Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto and you see how dangerous this lineup can be.

The Padres also have a hitter with three postseason homers - the suddenly red-hot Trent Grisham, who has shown a knack for timely hits in the postseason. Add that to the already powerful lineup including blockbuster trade acquisition Juan Soto and veteran Manny Machado, and this Padres’ lineup is one to be respected.

Yu Darvish (2-0, 3.00 postseason ERA) will start for the Padres while Zack Wheeler (0-1, 2.19) likely starts for the Phillies. Both bullpens are well rested since both teams finished their series in four games and have had time to rest.

There are plenty of storylines in this game, including brothers Aaron Nola and Austin Nola - a pitcher and a catcher- going head to head.

It’s difficult to pick a winner in this series. The Phillies have more power, but the Padres have a more dependable bullpen and home-field advantage. And, as we have seen, anything can happen in the postseason.

At least Mrs. Nola is guaranteed to have her son win.

I am willing to bet on this series not ending in a sweep, and if my back is against the wall I will pick the Phillies to win the NLCS at +100 odds. It’s a gut feeling that their bats will elevate them to another level and their luck continues.

Let’s sit back and pray for more baseball!