NBA Western Conference Play-In Betting Preview: Lakers Are Massive Favorites to Return to the Postseason
A few of the Western Conference play-in tournament teams are starting to become regular fixtures in the field.
The Lakers, Pelicans and Timberwolves are all making their second appearance this season while the Thunder are in it for the first time. The teams that have been here before also have fond memories as their trips ended in playoff berths, for Los Angeles in 2021 and for New Orleans and Minnesota last year.
The No. 7 seed (Lakers) host the No. 8 seed (Timberwolves) and the winner advances to play the No. 2 Grizzlies in the first round. The loser of the 7-8 game then plays the winner of the No. 9 (Pelicans) and No. 10 (Thunder) game. And the winner of that game will enter the postseason as the No. 8 seed with a matchup with the No. 1 Nuggets on the docket.
Three total games will be played. The play-in setup favors the higher-seeded teams as they both have two opportunities to win one game and earn a playoff spot while the lower-seeded teams are in a single-elimination situation.
Western Conference Play-in Tournament Schedule:
Tuesday, April 11
10 p.m. ET (TNT): No. 8 Timberwolves vs. No. 7 Lakers (-7.5) | Total: 231.5
Wednesday, April 12
9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): No. 10 Thunder vs. No. 9 Pelicans (-5.5) | Total: 228.5
Friday, April 15
Time TBD (ESPN): Winner of Thunder/Pelicans vs. loser of Timberwolves/Lakers
Western Conference Play-In Tournament Teams
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (43–39)
Play-In Opponent: Timberwolves — lost season series, 1–2
Record Since All-Star Break: 16–7
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes (-3000) | No (+1120)
The Lakers have the second-best record since the All-Star break and the seventh-best title odds in the NBA. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis healthy, they will be a tough out in the play-in tournament and, potentially, beyond.
For the season, Los Angeles ranks 19th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating, but those figures improve to 14th and 14th, respectively, in 23 games since the break. The galvanizing factor, other than the availability of its stars, was the trade-deadline additions of D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt. Austin Reaves also came on late in the year and has averaged 18.1 points per game since March 1, an added offensive boost for a team that ranks sixth in scoring average (117.2 points per game).
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L.A. is not a dangerous outside shooting team (34.6%), but on defense, it’s one of the best at keeping its opponents in check from outside (34.4%). The Lakers are also one of the top rebounding teams in the league and Davis’s career-high 12.5 boards per game would lead the league if he had played enough games to qualify.
It’s been a long season in Tinseltown, between a 2–10 start, the Russell Westbrook trade and James breaking the all-time scoring record. But given that the Lakers didn’t reach a .500 record until late March, things have unfolded about as well as they could for James to make a run at his fifth title and an 18th banner for the franchise.
- NBA Playoffs Begin: Full April watch guide.
No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (42–40)
Play-In Opponent: Lakers — won season series, 2–1
Record Since All-Star Break: 11–10
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes (-290) | No (+225)
The Timberwolves will be down two starters when they take the floor Tuesday night at crypto.com Arena. Rudy Gobert was suspended by the team for punching teammate Kyle Anderson in Sunday’s season finale. Jaden McDaniels will also miss the Lakers game after he punched a wall during that same game and fractured his hand. He is out indefinitely. Their absence puts a damper on a Minnesota team that has won three in a row behind the play of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, who returned from a months-long injury just a few weeks ago.
This will be the second consecutive play-in appearance for the T-Wolves after they defeated the Clippers in the 7-8 game a year ago. Their calling card is their No. 12 defense, not their 23-ranked offense, though Gobert and McDaniels are two of their top defenders. The addition of Mike Conley at the trade deadline has worked out well so far as the veteran floor general has been good for 14 points and five dimes per game.
Edwards was the hero in the 2022 play-in game and coach Chris Finch may need the third-year pro to step up once again this spring. Edwards improved his scoring, rebounding and assist averages and bumped up his field-goal and three-point percentages this season. The pressure is again on him and Towns to carry the team in a difficult matchup.
No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans (42–40)
Play-In Opponent: Thunder — won season series, 3–1
Record Since All-Star Break: 12–11
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes (+250) | No (-325)
The Pelicans got just 74 games combined out of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson this season, though the former is available for another go-around in the play-in tournament while the latter remains sidelined. New Orleans went 9–3 over its final 12 games to recover a winning record and earned another shot at a return to the postseason.
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At the heart of that turnaround is the league’s sixth-best defense (No. 2 over that stretch). The No. 20 offensive rating leaves plenty to be desired, though Ingram and C.J. McCollum are both more than capable scorers with averages north of 20 points per game. Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III and Jonas Valančiūnas lead the team on defense and hold their own on offense, too.
Turnovers plague New Orleans (14 per game is the ninth-most in the NBA), but it makes up for those miscues with the second-most steals on average (8.3). After McCollum, most of Willie Green’s rotation is 6'7 " or taller and that size advantage bears out in the Pelican’s +1.9 differential on the glass. Hosting the 9-10 game is of vital importance for a team that went 27–14 at the Smoothie King Center and 15–26 on the road.
No. 10 Oklahoma City Thunder (40–42)
Play-In Opponent: Pelicans — lost season series, 1–3
Record Since All-Star Break: 12–13
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes (+760) | No (-1400)
Oklahoma City exceeded expectations in a big way, in large part due to the breakout year that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had. The Thunder’s win total was set at 23.5, which they cleared in late January. Despite being the youngest team in the NBA, they were competitive all season long, which allowed them to clinch the final play-in spot over the weekend.
OKC is right in the middle by most metrics: 16th in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating and 15th in net. No player in the starting five is taller than 6’9”. This is a strange team, led by SGA, a unique player who averaged a career-best 31.4 points per game this year without taking many shots from beyond the arc. Rookie Jalen Williams (not to be confused with Jaylin Williams, who is also a rookie) improved with each passing month and averaged a hair under 20 points per game in March. And then there’s Giddey, a 6’8” shooting guard who doubles as the team’s top rebounder (7.9) and assists leader (6.2).
The Thunder feel like they’re ahead of schedule considering No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren missed his entire rookie year. But OKC, the fifth-highest scoring team in the league (117.5 points per game) that finished with the third-best mark against the spread (45–34–3), is fully capable of making teams sweat, if not more.
NBA Western Conference Play-In Predictions
The Lakers, whose odds to make the playoffs are -3000, will capitalize on the opportunity afforded to them against a shorthanded Timberwolves team. That will set up a 2-7 matchup between Los Angeles and Memphis in Round 1.
In the 9-10 game, the Pelicans should prevail at home in a tight game given the success they had against the Thunder in the regular season. Minnesota will likely have Gobert back for the Friday night game for the No. 8 seed against New Orleans. Though the T-Wolves won the season series after Sunday’s rubber match, the aftermath of the Gobert incident along with the absence of McDaniels is a lot to move on from in less than a week. If the Pelicans can keep Edwards in check — a task easier said than done, especially for them this season — they’ll win in Minneapolis and advance to the playoffs to play Denver.
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