Aaron Judge Injury Causes Massive Shift in AL MVP Odds, Cal Raleigh Now Favorite

Aaron Judge has fallen back to +100 to win AL MVP.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is no longer favored to win AL MVP. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Less than two weeks ago, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was an overwhelming favorite to win back-to-back AL MVP awards.

However, an elbow injury is set to sideline the Yankees superstar, and it has caused a massive shift in the AL MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and many of the other best betting sites.

Flexor strain is the diagnosis for Judge right elbow. Will go on IL and will likely return as DH. Good news is that the UCL is intact, Aaron Boone said.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 26, 2025

Judge, who was -1500 to win the AL. MVP award at the All-Star break, is now +100 at DraftKings and second in the odds to win the award. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who is in the middle of a terrific 2025 season, has skyrocketed from +700 to -140 to win the award.

Based on implied probability, Raleigh now has a 58.33 percent chance to win AL MVP while Judge has a 50 percent chance.

The length of the Yankees superstar's absence is likely going to determine his chances of winning AL MVP for two reasons. One, if Judge misses a significant amount of time, his numbers -- while dominant already -- may not look as gaudy compared to Raleigh's this season.

Secondly, the Yankees have been in a tailspin for over a month now, and a long Judge absence could completely drop the team out of the playoff picture in the AL. While team success usually isn't as big of a factor in MLB awards as it is in other sports, if Raleigh leads the Mariners to the playoffs and Judge's Yankees fail to do so, it could swing the vote slightly in Raleigh's favor.

This season, Judge is hitting a ridiculous .342 with 37 home runs, 85 runs batted in an 1.160 OPS. He leads Major League Baseball in hits, batting average, OPS, slugging, on-base percentage, OPS+ and WAR. He also leads the AL in runs, RBIs and walks.

There's no doubt that if he was healthy, Judge is the runaway favorite to win AL MVP. Raleigh is having a great year (40 homers, 85 runs batted in, .983 OPS), but his numbers pale in comparison to Judge in nearly every category outside of homers.

For now, bettors will want to monitor Judge's timetable to return before betting on this market, but oddsmakers seem to think that he'll miss an extended stretch based on the massive shift in the odds.

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