Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Sunday, June 29

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Las Vegas Aces-Phoenix Mercury matchup on Sunday.

Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper is a great prop target on Sunday. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury are far and away the hottest team in the WNBA right now, and they’re aiming to build on their six-game winning streak when they take on the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday night.

The Aces (7-8) are off to a very slow start in 2025, and they have yet to fully adjust since trading Kelsey Plum in a blockbuster deal in the offseason that brought Jewell Loyd to Vegas. The Aces rank ninth in the WNBA in net rating, offensive rating and defensive rating so far this season. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury now have the second-best record in the WNBA after beating the New York Liberty twice in an eight-day span. Can Satou Sabally and company knock off A’ja Wilson and the Aces?

Oddsmakers have them favored at home to build on their impressive 7-2 record at PHX Arena. 

Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces +6 (-105)
• Mercury -6 (-115)

Moneyline

• Aces: +210
• Mercury: -258

Total

• 168 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, June 29
• Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Aces record: 7-8
• Mercury record: 12-4

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus – out
• Megan Gustafson – out

Mercury Injury Report

• Lexi Held – out

Aces vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kahleah Copper 2+ 3-Pointers (-145)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Kahleah Copper is a great prop target on Sunday:

Kahleah Copper has been playing limited minutes for the Mercury since returning from a knee injury, but she’s shot the ball well from beyond the arc.

Copper has made at least two shots from 3 in each of her last three games, shooting 35.0 percent from deep for the season. Even though she’s been on a minutes limit, Copper has attempted double-digit shots in back-to-back games, going 4-for-13 from beyond the arc during that stretch. 

This is a pretty solid matchup against a Las Vegas Aces team that is ninth in the WNBA in opponent 3-point percentage this season, allowing opposing players to shoot 34.3 percent from beyond the arc.

As long as Copper’s shot volume stays the same, she’s a great bet to hit multiple 3-pointers on Sunday. 

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

While the Mercury aren’t going to blow teams away on offense – they’re just sixth in offensive rating this season – they rank in the top four in the WNBA in both defensive rating and net rating this season.

With Copper (knee) working her way back into normal minutes, this Phoenix team could get even scarier as the season goes on. Remember, the Mercury were missing Copper and Natasha Mack for a long stretch early in the season and Alyssa Thomas missed a few games with a calf issue.

Despite that, Phoenix is 12-4 (7-2 at home) and an impressive 10-6 against the spread in the 2025 season. The Aces, on the other hand, are just 5-10 against the spread.

As good as A’ja Wilson is, the Aces have not meshed as well as you’d expect, as Loyd is averaging just 11.5 points per game. It’s going to take some time to build out this offense, and I don’t see the Aces turning things around against the No. 3 defense in the W. 

Phoenix won by six on the road the last time these teams played, so I don’t mind laying the points with the Mercury at home to keep their winning streak alive. 

Pick: Mercury -6 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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