Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players Wednesday, Feb. 19

Reed Wallach | Feb 18, 2025

Jan 29, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) looks to pass the ball as Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (12) defends during the first half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Alabama couldn’t score a massive win in SEC play on Saturday against Auburn but must turn its sights to a surging Missouri team that has emerged as a formidable SEC foe this season behind a physical offense. 

The Tigers have competed with the likes of Florida and Tennessee already in league play, can the team pick up another win at home against an elite team like Alabama? This game is lined as a near coin flip, let’s see where the edges are for each team and make a best bet. 

Alabama vs. Missouri Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Alabama: -1.5 (-120)
• Missouri: -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Alabama: -125
• Missouri: +104

Total: 170.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alabama vs. Missouri How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, February 19th
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Mizzou Arena
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Oregon Record: 18-8
• Iowa Record: 14-11

Alabama vs. Missouri Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Mark Sears: The lead guard continues to struggle shooting from the field, he made only four of his 15 field goal attempts against Auburn but got to the free throw line 11 times to finish with 18 points. While his efficiency is down, he is still being tasked as the engine of this elite Crimson Tide offense. Capable of massive outputs at any moment, can he unlock this surging Tigers defense? 

Missouri

Caleb Grill: The Iowa State transfer has been part of the resurgent Tigers, providing the team with sound floor spacing by shooting the rock at a torrid 46% clip from beyond the arc this season at a healthy volume. There are plenty of reasons for success this season for the Tigers, but Grill’s ability to open up the floor has been massive. 

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

This matchup should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of possessions, but I find myself siding with the Crimson Tide on the road. 

Alabama’s defense may have the antidote to Missouri’s offense, which has been running hot from the perimeter in SEC play, ranking 50th in the country in three-point percentage on a top 100 rate. However, the Crimson Tide are shutting off the three-point line for opponents, allowing the 39th lowest three-point rate this season. 

Inside the arc, Missouri is far closer to the national average in SEC play, ranking 185th in two-point percentage over the last 12 games. The team is reliant on cleaning the glass and winning the shot volume battle, top 100 in offensive rebounding rate when threes aren’t going down, but Alabama does a great job in that department as well. 

Meanwhile, the team’s offense should find far more success against the Mizzou defense which is 253rd in defensive rebounding rate and 84th in effective field goal percentage allowed. The defense is far more pedestrian against an elite unit in Alabama, which ranks third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. 

Missouri has proven it can hang with some of the best in the conference, but this matchup sets up nicely for the Crimson Tide to score a road win. 

PICK: Alabama ML (-125, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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