Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

Can Alabama win as a road favorite?

The Alabama Crimson Tide and quarterback Ty Simpson are favored on Saturday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The undefeated Missouri Tigers play their biggest game of the 2025 season to date in Week 7 against the one-loss Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama is the No. 8 team in the country, and it has picked up wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt (two top-25 teams) in back-to-back weeks to move into the top-10 in the country. Bama did lose to Florida State in Week 1, but the Crimson Tide have done all they can to erase that loss from their resume.

Meanwhile, Missouri is coming off a bye and only has played two tough opponents – Kansas and South Carolina – so far in 2025. 

Oddsmakers have set the Tigers as home underdogs, but can they remain undefeated in this SEC clash?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s matchup. 

Alabama vs. Missouri Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Alabama -3 (-110)
• Missouri +3 (-110)

Moneyline

• Alabama: -148
• Missouri: +124

Total

• 52.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Alabama vs. Missouri How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Alabama record: 4-1
• Missouri record: 5-0

Alabama vs. Missouri Key Players to Watch

Ty Simpson, Quarterback, Alabama

Simpson has put himself in the conversation for the Heisman this season, as he’s thrown for over 300 yards in two of his last three games. 

Simpson is now averaging 295.6 passing yards per game while posting the best passer efficiency rating in the SEC. He leads the conference in passing yards and has an impressive 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

This is a tough matchup for Simpson against a Tigers defense that is No. 17 in the country in EPA/Play on defense and No. 4 in EPA/Pass. 

If Simpson is able to have a big game against the Missouri secondary, he may jump up even further in the odds to win the Heisman. 

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams are in the top-15 in the country in Net EPA/Play, but the Crimson Tide have faced a much tougher schedule to this point.

Alabama ranks third in ESPN’s strength of schedule rating while Missouri is all the way down at 109th. So, the Tigers ranking fifth in success rate on both offense and defense is impressive, but they haven’t exactly been tested yet in the 2025 season.

Meanwhile, Alabama is as battle-tested as they come, and it already has a massive road win over Georgia earlier this season.

The Crimson Tide have the No. 7 offense in EPA/Play this season, and it’s hard to bet against Simpson, who has been rolling at the quarterback position over the last three weeks. 

Beau Pribula has been solid for the Tigers, but he’s also thrown three picks this season against suspect opponents.

Alabama is favored in this matchup because it has performed well against elite competition, but I’ll forget the points and simply take the Crimson Tide to win outright in Week 7. 

Pick: Alabama Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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