Alabama vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 11

Reed Wallach | Feb 11, 2025

Feb 8, 2025; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard mark Sears (1) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forward Billy Richmond III (24) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Alabama won 85-81. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Alabama and Texas meet in SEC action on Tuesday night with the Longhorns looking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with a minor upset against the surging Crimson Tide. 

Alabama enters with six straight wins and will face a Texas team that can use a win after dropping two straight to the likes of Arkansas and Vanderbilt over the last week. The Longhorns have shown it can compete with high-level competition already this season, but can they hold up against one of the best in the country? 

Here’s our betting preview for this SEC matchup.

Alabama vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Alabama: -4.5 (-102)
• Texas: +4.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Alabama: -184
• Texas: +152

Total: 166.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alabama vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, February 11th
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Moody Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Alabama Record: 20-3
• Texas Record: 15-9

Alabama vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Mark Sears: Sears hasn’t had the torrid season that he had in 2023-2024, but he has evolved his game to offset some of his drawbacks shooting the ball. He has been among one of the best in SEC play in free throw rate while also cupping his assist rate from 21% last season to nearly 26% this season. That number has exploded in SEC play too, sitting at 31.6% as the Alabama offense continues to dominate the conference.

Texas

Tre Johnson: The future lottery pick continues to play well in SEC play, and his skillset may open up a big showing against Alabama. The Longhorns are a mid-range-seeking team, which is where Johnson thrives off the dribble, and that’s what is going to be given to the team as Alabama allows the lowest three-point rate in SEC play. However, this may suit Johnson well even if the shot diet isn’t typically recommended for most. 

Alabama vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Despite a total sitting at 166.5, the over is my preference in this game. 

Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in the country, per KenPom, so points are always going to be flowing and I don’t believe Texas has the ability to slow down the Crimson Tide. 

Texas’ defense forces isolation basketball, but Alabama has one of the best point guards in the country in Sears at not only generating his own shots but also for others as the Crimson Tide are an elite spot-up shooting team. 

So, can the Longhorns keep up? I think yes. 

Alabama does a great job of running teams off the three-point line, but is also quite fortunate in its defensive numbers, allowing the lowest three-point percentage in SEC play. That’s ripe for regression against a Texas team that has been cold from the perimeter in league play but has plenty of shot-makers, shooting 36% from beyond the arc over the balance of the season, good for 54th nationally. 

Further, Alabama won’t force turnovers, 347th in the country in TO%, which should set up nicely for a Texas offense that has been shaky with the ball in league games. 

When Texas misses, Alabama will be able to push the pace and hunt quick buckets but also rack up free throw attempts against a physical Texas defense. However, the Longhorns offense should be able to run its offense as it pleases, in the mid-range typically, but also test the Crimson Tide from deep. 

It’s a high total clear, but it’s the only way I can look. 

PICK: OVER 166.5 (available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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