Arch Manning Betting Odds Favorite to Be No. 1 Pick in 2026 NFL Draft

Brian Giuffra | Apr 28, 2025

Arch Manning is the betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning hasn’t even started a full college football season yet, but oddsmakers believe he’ll be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

You might not want to bet that, however. More on why below.

DraftKings Sportsbook set Manning at +200 to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the best odds of anyone in the market. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is close behind at +225. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is third at +450. 

There’s a pretty sizeable gap in the odds after the Top 3, but if last year taught us anything, it’s that where you start in the odds doesn’t matter, where you finish does. 

Last year, then-Georgia quarterback Carson Beck was the betting favorite to be the first pick. Now he’s playing at Miami and is +3000 to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft after a disappointing season in Athens.

Who was Beck favored above at that time? None other than Shedeur Sanders, who saw his NFL Draft odds plummet in the leadup to the first round and wound up slipping to the Browns in the fifth round. 

Manning isn’t Beck or Sanders, of course. Beyond the lineage, he flashed supreme talent while filling in for an injured Quinn Ewers last year, leading Texas to two wins. His best game was a 35-13 beatdown of Mississippi State, where Manning completed 83.9% of his passes for 325 yards and two TDs. On the year, Manning completed 67.9% of his passes with nine TDs, two INTs and added four TDs on the ground. 

Manning is the current betting favorite to win the Heisman, with +700 odds at DraftKings. Nussmeier is +900 and Allar is +1000. 

Texas has the second-best odds to win the National Championship at +550. Defending champion Ohio State leads at +500, Georgia is +600, Oregon is +750 and Penn State rounds out the Top 5 at +800. 

Despite being so highly-regarded, ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter reported there’s no guarantee Manning will leave school early to declare for the NFL Draft. When you think of his family, that makes sense. 

Both of his uncles, Peyton and Eli, stayed four years at college and started for three years before leaving for the NFL. This will be Arch’s third year at Texas. If he follows his uncle’s footsteps, which certainly positioned them best for a great NFL career, he won’t enter the draft until 2027. 

I’m not betting this market now, but if I was I would stay away from Manning. There are simply too many variables at play. He makes a ton in NIL, his family is likely advising him to stay in school, and there’s no real reason for him to rush into a bad situation in the NFL. 

Here are the NFL No. 1 pick draft odds. 

2026 NFL Draft Odds No. 1 Pick 

• Arch Manning +200
• Drew Allar +225
• Garrett Nussmeier +450 
• Cade Klubnik +1800
• T.J. Parker +2500
• Keldrick Faulk +2500
• Caleb Downs +2500
• LaNorris Sellers +3000
• Carson Beck +3000
• Jayden Maiava +3500
• Dante Moore +3500
• Spencer Fano +4000
• Tyreak Sapp +5000
• Rueben Bain Jr. +5000
• Matayo Uiagalelei +5000
• Kadyn Proctor +5000
• John Mateer +5000

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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