Arsenal vs. Manchester City Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Premier League Week 5

Arsenal has a chance to make a statement with a win over Mikel Arteta's former boss.

Arsenal rolled in the Premier League last Saturday. / HENRY NICHOLLS/AFP/Getty Images

Another week and another highly-anticipated fixture between two Big Six sides in the Premier League. Manchester City is trying to bounce back from the worst season of the Pep Guardiola era, while Arsenal is trying to finally break out of their three-year streak of second-place finishes. City righted the ship with an easy 3-0 win over their intercity rivals last week after losing two straight games, and Arsenal is coming into Sunday’s game with a ton of confidence, on the back of their elite defense. 

Arsenal has yet to allow a goal from open play. Through five competitive games, including the mid-week Champions League fixture against Athletic Bilbao, the North Londoners have only conceded one goal, and that was Dominik Szoboszlai’s brilliant strike from a free kick against Liverpool in Week 3. They have only allowed 2.75 expected goals (xG) in these appearances, suggesting that Mikel Arteta has finally perfected his compact, cautious, and physical defense. 

On the other end of the field, the Gunners are still not the most creative and dynamic team, but they managed to score 11 goals in five games. They continue to be an elite set piece team, and after the additions of Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyokeres, they have more talent and unpredictability than previous seasons. Once the two stars are better integrated and Bukayo Saka makes his return on the right wing, Arsenal will surely look more dangerous offensively. 

Man City, on the other hand, remains a work in progress. While the derby win against United was a big step in the right direction, Pep Guardiola’s side is far from the well-oiled machine they were in their heyday. Considering how many new faces they are trying to integrate in key positions, like Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Rayan Ait-Nouri, and Gigi Donnarummua, this is understandable. Add in the fact that Rodri is finally getting back in shape after missing most of last season, and City may take a while to start humming. 

At the same time, the Cityzens desperately can’t allow themselves to fall further behind their rivals in the title race. They are already six points behind Liverpool, and three points behind Arsenal, and another loss this early into the season may be digging themselves too big of a hole to try to get out of. This immediately raises the stakes of this exciting Week 5 clash. 

Arsenal vs. Man City Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Moneyline:

Arsenal: -110
Draw: +260
Man City: +280

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -130
Under 2.5: +102

Over 3.5: +200
Under 3.5: -265

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -146
No: +116

Half-Time Result:

Arsenal: +145
Draw: +120
Man City: +310

Double Chance:

Man City or Draw: -125

Arsenal vs. Man City How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
• Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
• Venue: Emirates Stadium, London, England
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock, USA Network

Arsenal vs. Man City Prediction and Pick

Even though Mikel Arteta began his managerial career as an assistant to Pep Guardiola in Man City, the two leaders’ soccer philosophies differ in significant ways. They both deploy modern approaches when it comes to formations, spacing, and parcelization, but Guardiola favors a ball-dominant, attacking approach, while Arteta is much more willing to sacrifice possession for quicker and more direct attacks. 

This has caused Arteta to receive intense criticism, as many see his tactics as too cautious and conservative. One can argue that this also positioned himself as an antithesis to Guardiola’s philosophy. Yet, one can’t deny the fact that this approach has helped Arsenal take massive strides, despite the fact that a Premier League title has eluded them so far. 

In Arteta’s first years in charge, the Arsenal-City fixtures were largely dominated by the Manchester side. In recent years, the Gunners have managed to slow City down, winning twice and drawing three times in their last five matchups. The last time these two teams played, it was an absolute 5-1 demolition by Arsenal in Week 24 of the 2024-25 season. Man City fans hope that their team is not the same fragile group from last season and believe that they can get a result at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. 

Yet, they will face an uphill battle against a team that has more continuity, better organization, and arguably more talent. Therefore, one can expect Guardiola to be fine with a draw on Sunday. A relatively cautious approach from both sides could result in a tight, low-scoring affair, similar to the Liverpool-Arsenal fixture from a few weeks ago. 

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+102)

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