Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Champions League Quarterfinals

Cem Yolbulan | Apr 7, 2025

IMAGO/DeFodi Images

After defeating Manchester City in the playoff round and squeaking by bitter rivals Atletico Madrid in the Round of 16, Real Madrid now has their toughest battle yet. The reigning champions face off against Arsenal in the quarter finals on their way to their third Champions League title in four years.

Real Madrid is trailing Barcelona by four points in La Liga after losing to Valencia at home over the weekend. While their hopes of another domestic title are still alive, Real Madrid, the kings of the Champions League, will have their eyes on the big prize as Carlo Ancelotti chases his sixth Champions League title of his managerial career. 

Arsenal, on the other hand, has yet to win a Champions League title in their history. Even though their Premier League title aspirations have slipped away in recent weeks thanks to recent poor form, Arsenal remains a dangerous team in a two-leg fixture. Under Mikel Arteta, the North London side isn’t the most creative and dynamic team with the ball. This limits their upside in a long, grueling league calendar as they struggle to beat weaker teams that they have to control possession against. 

Against elite competition, however, this serves Arsenal well. Arteta’s conservative approach, willingness to give up possession, and compact defending makes them a very difficult team to score on and beat. And if you are tough to beat, you will have a chance against anybody, including Real Madrid. 

To nobody’s surprise, Real Madrid is the favorites in this fixture, but Arsenal has stylistic advantages that could make it a closer matchup than oddsmakers and fans anticipate. 

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

To Qualify: 

Arsenal: +148
Real Madrid: -184

Moneyline:

Arsenal: +135
Draw: +220
Real Madrid: +220

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: +120
Under 2.5: -146

Over 3.5: +300
Under 3.5: -410

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -118
No: -108

Half-Time Result:

Arsenal: +195
Draw: -105
Real Madrid: +290

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, April 8, 2025
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Emirates Stadium, London, UK
• How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, CBS Sports, Fubo

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Prediction and Pick

Arsenal missed a massive opportunity in the Premier League over the weekend, failing to defeat Everton in the same gameweek Liverpool lost to Fulham. Instead of coming within three games of the league leaders, Arsenal is now 11 points behind Liverpool with seven games left in the season. 

At this point, the Premier League title is a miracle for Arsenal. They are all but guaranteed to finish second for a third straight year. 

That is why they have fully turned their attention to the Champions League. A Champions League finals run is the only way to salvage this season for Mikel Arteta after flaming out early in the FA Cup and League Cup. 

They have absolutely crushed the competition so far, finishing the league stage 6-1-1 and only allowing three goals and beating PSV 9-3 on aggregate in the Round of 16. This should give them plenty of hope going up against Real Madrid on Tuesday.

However, they have to do so without a few key starters. Center back Gabriel and versatile forward Kai Havertz will not be available. Raheem Sterling is serving a yellow card ban while Riccardo Calafiori and Gabriel Jesus continue to be out with their respective injuries. This means that the Gunners will have plenty of unproven and inexperienced faces in the backline including Jurrien Timber, Myles Lewis-Skelly, and potentially Jakub Kiwior. 

Real Madrid, on the other hand, should have a near-ideal starting XI in London. Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended, while Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal are still recovering from their long-term injuries

The reigning champions are obviously a scary side with the lethal combination of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr., and Jude Bellingham. But they showed in the previous round against Atletico Madrid that they can be vulnerable. The 2024-25 Arsenal is as close as it gets in European soccer to Diego Simeone’s Atletico.  

Against a compact, disciplined defense that doesn’t leave much space to be exploited, Real Madrid can struggle to create consistently. Other than Bellingham, they don’t have a player who thrives playing in tight spaces and between the lines. 

Arsenal certainly has weaknesses, especially offensively, but they know how to defend. Thomas Partey and Declan Rice provide a ton of physicality and intensity in the midfield, making Arsenal a tough nut to crack. Deploying both Partey and Rice in the starting lineup creates disadvantages on the attacking side of the ball but makes Arsenal an excellent defensive team. 

Real Madrid should dominate possession but may not find it easy to create chances. The first leg has the makings of a low-scoring affair, but those odds are not enticing. Arsenal’s odds to make it to the semi finals, however, are quite enticing. 

Two intense, low-scoring battles could play into Arsenal’s hands, who will look to score through set pieces and in transition. It can be difficult to pick against Real Madrid in the Champions League but it’s hard to argue that they have been the better side between these two teams this season. 

Pick: Arsenal to qualify (+148 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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