Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Prediction, Odds for US Open Final

Can Amanda Anisimova upset the No. 1 player in the world in the US Open final?

Amanda Anisimova is an underdog in the US Open final on Saturday. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The stage is set for the US Open women’s final, as world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on No. 8 Amanda Anisimova after both pulled off come-from-behind wins in the semifinals.

After dropping her first set to No. 4 Jessica Pegula, Sabalenka won the next two sets, giving her a chance to defend her 2024 US Open title on Saturday. 

Meanwhile, Anisimova is back in a Grand Slam final for the second time in 2025 (she lost to Iga Swiatek in the Wimbledon final) after defeating Naomi Osaka in three sets.

Like Sabalenka, Anisimova dropped her first set but rallied to beat the two-time US Open champion.

These two players have met nine times in their respective careers, and Anisimova has gotten the better of Sabalenka in six of those matches, including their last meeting in the Wimbledon semifinals. 

This is the third time this year that the two have met in a Grand Slam, but who will win the rubber match?

With a US Open title on the line, let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the final and my prediction for this match. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka: -200
• Amanda Anisimova: +160

Total

• 22.5 (Over -110/Under -125)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 6
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Aryna Sabalenka: How Did They Get Here?

Sabalenka has been pretty dominant at the 2025 US Open, dropping just one set (her loss to Pegula in the first set of the semifinal), but she did benefit from advancing via walkover in the quarterfinals.

The No. 1 player in the world has two runner-up finishes at Grand Slams this year (the Australian Open and French Open) and she’s at least made the semifinal in 11 of her last 12 Grand Slam appearances.

That’s an impressive mark, and Sabalenka is playing in her third straight US Open final. However, she has struggled against Anisimova in her career, losing two of their four matches since 2024 and six of the nine overall. 

Amanda Anisimova: How Did They Get Here?

What a story it would be if Anisimova is able to pull off the upset in the US Open final on Saturday.

After reaching the Wimbledon Final earlier this year and failing to win a game, Anisimova defeated Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals of the US Open before rallying from a one-set deficit to beat Naomi Osaka in the semifinals.

Now, the American has a chance to win the first Grand Slam title of her career in New York.

Anisimova beat Sabalenka in three sets at Wimbledon earlier this year, but she also lost to her on clay at the French Open. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Sabalenka -200 – the defending champion at the US Open has an implied probability of 66.7 percent to repeat in 2025. 

However, I’m going to bet on the underdog in this match.

For those that are unfamiliar with Anisimova’s game, she is very, very aggressive. The American will play for winners – which will cause some unforced errors – but when she’s on, she can dominate a match.

She’s done that so far in the US Open, losing just two sets overall, and she lost just 10 games between her Round 4 and quarterfinal matches. 

History shows that Anisimova can succeed against Sabalenka, and while the defending champ is one of the more powerful hitters in the world, she has not come through in big matches so far in 2025, losing in multiple Grand Slam finals.

Maybe this is a spot where Sabalenka finally gets over the hump, but I think these odds are titled way too far in her favor, especially with how well Anisimova is playing.

I’ll take the underdog to win the US Open on Saturday. 

Pick: Anisimova to Win (+160 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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