Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction, Odds for US Open Quarterfinals

Aryna Sabalenka is favored to advance to the semifinals at the US Open for the fifth year in a row.

Aryna Sabalenka is favored to advance to the semifinals at the US Open for the fifth year in a row. / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has made the quarterfinals of the US Open for the fifth consecutive year, and she’s favored on Tuesday against Marketa Vondrousova, who has made an insanely impressive run so far in New York.

Vondrousova made the quarterfinals of the US Open in 2023, and she finds herself back in the same spot after upsetting Elena Rybakina in three sets on Sunday night. 

There is a lot of history between Sabalenka and Vondrousova, as they’ve faced off nine times with the No. 1 player in the world winning five of those matchups. As a result, the best betting sites have this match set a little tighter than most of Sabalenka’s previous matches in this Grand Slam.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction for Tuesday’s match. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka: -300
• Marketa Vondrousova: +235

Total

• 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 2
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Aryna Sabalenka: How Did They Get Here?

The defending US Open champion, Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at the 2025 US Open, knocking off Cristina Busca 6-1, 6-4 in her Round 4 match to reach the quarters.

Sabalenka has made the semifinals in each of the last four US Opens, and she’s looking to keep that streak going on Tuesday. She beat Vondrousova in their last match at the Cincinnati Open and has won five of their nine meetings overall. 

Marketa Vondrousova: How Did They Get Here?

So far in the US Open, Vondrousova has knocked off three top-32 players in the world, including No. 32 McCartney Kessler, No. 7 Jasmine Paolini and Rybakina (the No. 9 player in the world).

Vondrousova needed three sets to knock off Rybakina, but she left little doubt in the third set, winning 6-2 to advance to the quarterfinals.

She has four wins over Sabalenka in her career, including a victory earlier this year in straight sets at the Berlin Tennis Open. This will be the first meeting at the US Open between these two players. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Sabalenka -300 – the No. 1 player in the world has an implied probability of 75.0 percent to reach the semifinals for the fifth year in a row.

It’s worth noting that of Sabalenka’s wins against Vondrousova, four of them have come on a “hard” surface (she’s 4-2) with her only losses coming back in 2017 and 2018. Vondrousova has beaten Sabalenka on grass and clay in more recent matches, but Sabalenka dominated their matchup at the Cincinnati Open, winning 7-5, 6-1. 

It’s extremely hard to fade Sabalenka at the US Open, as she’s been in back-to-back finals and has at least made the semis in every single Grand Slam in 2025.

Vondrousova is a formidable opponent, but she’s only made one other quarterfinal appearance in New York in her career.

I think Sabalenka will win this match, but it’s worth noting that she’s only had two matches against Vondrousova where she won the first set by more than two games. I think that sets up well for the underdog to cover the games spread on Tuesday. 

Pick: Vondrousova +4.5 Games (-125 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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