Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Premier League Week 17

Can Manchester City turn things around in their season from hell?

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Manchester City’s season from hell had its most depressing chapter on Sunday after they lost to their bitter rivals Man Utd at home in a game they led entering the 88th minute. A costly foul inside the box by Matheus Nunes and an embarrassing defensive collapse to allow a late Amad Diallo goal resulted in the fifth Man City loss in their last seven Premier League matches. Add the League Cup and the Champions League and City has only won once in their last 11 competitive games. 

This is undoubtedly the worst stretch of Pep Guardiola’s career. They are on the verge of getting eliminated from the Champions League if they don’t win at least one of their remaining two games and have fallen outside of the top four domestically. 

Even though Man City is desperately trying to bounce back, their schedule isn’t letting up. In Week 17, they are going on the road to face a tough Aston Villa side. A loss at Villa Park would catapult Unai Emery’s side above Manchester City and push Guardiola closer to the middle of the table. 

Aston Villa is admittedly not at the top of their form after a hot start to the season. Playing in the Champions League for the first time in four decades has taken a toll on Villa who have fallen all the way down to seventh place in the standings. They suffered a defeat similar to City’s over the weekend, losing to Nottingham Forest after suffering two late goals on the road. 

While they are struggling domestically, they are on the brink of finishing in the top eight of the league stage of the Champions League with 13 points in six games. For a young team without much European experience, that is a big accomplishment. 

Since they don’t have the elite depth that some of their counterparts do, Villa has consistently been dropping points in the league after playing a European fixture mid-week. Fortunately for them, they will be well-rested against City, paving the way for a thrilling matchup between two of the best managers in the game. 

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Moneyline:

Aston Villa: +230
Draw: +280
Man City: +105

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -186
Under 2.5: +136

Over 3.5: +138
Under 3.5: -170

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -210
No: +162

Double Chance: 

Aston Villa or Draw: -145

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
• Time: 7:30 a.m. EST
• Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham, UK
• How to Watch (TV): USA Network

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Prediction and Pick

Villa under Emery has caused all sorts of problems for Guardiola even in the best of times for Man City. As one of the best single-game tacticians in the game, Emery will have a specific game plan for the struggling City. 

In this same fixture last season, Aston Villa dominated City in a 1-0 win, only allowing two shots while creating 2.38 expected goals. They will look to do the same against a weaker Manchester City side. 

Guardiola has been trying to find a solution to his team’s problems. He is pushing all the buttons on the controller while doing so. In the absence of key defenders like Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji, his latest invention is trying Matheus Nunes at left back. That experiment completely backfired, costing them the game against United. 

He will likely continue trying new things to stop the bleeding, especially on the defensive side of the ball. City has allowed at least two goals in 10 out of their last 11 games, highlighting their porous defense and soft midfield. A similar lack of physicality and defensive intensity would be disastrous against Villa. 

Aston Villa has a ton of physicality and athleticism all over the field, causing problems for their opposition. This will be a massive advantage for them against City who will likely have a combination of Ilkay Gundogan, Rico Lewis, Bernardo Silva, and Phil Foden in midfield. 

Guardiola can choose to inject more physicality by starting Mateo Kovacic but that group will almost certainly be overwhelmed by the dynamism of the likes of Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana, Morgan Rogers, and John McGinn. 

City likes to dominate possession and control the middle of the field but how they will do that against that physically dominant group is a big question mark. 

On top of it all, Aston Villa is one of the most dangerous counter-attacking teams in the league. Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey (if he can make his return from injury) are the exact type of players that City defense struggles to slow down. 

Even though Manchester City is obviously the more talented side with players like Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland who can swing any game with a moment of brilliance, Aston Villa simply has too many stylistic advantages here. Considering how poor City has been on the road this season, it’s hard to pick anything but another loss for them. 

Pick: Aston Villa (+230)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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