Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 11

The Jays are favored at home on Thursday.

The Blue Jays are favored at home against Houston. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros wrap up their three-game set on Thursday afternoon after splitting the first two meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jays ace Kevin Gausman (3.63 ERA) is looking to lead his team to a win at home where Toronto is 21 games over .500 this season.

As the Jays look to build on their lead in the AL East, Houston is hoping to remain atop the AL West. The Astros have just a one-game lead on the Seattle Mariners entering Thursday's action, and they’re leaning on righty Cristian Javier (4.43 ERA) in his sixth start of the season.

Can the Astros pick up a win and remain in the top spot in the division?

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale. 

Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros +1.5 (-163)
• Blue Jays -1.5 (+134)

Moneyline

• Astros: +129
• Blue Jays: -158

Total

• 8.5 (Over -108/Under -113)

Astros vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

• Houston: Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA)
• Toronto: Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA)

Astros vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 11
• Time: 3:07 p.m. EST
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SNET, SCHN
• Astros record: 79-67
• Blue Jays record: 83-62

Astros vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cristian Javier 2+ Walks (-172)

This season, Javier has walked 12 batters in 20.1 innings of work, walking at least two batters in four of his five outings.

Now, he’s facing a tough Jays offense that ranks in the top 10 in batting average, OPS and runs scored this season while drawing the 13th-most walks in MLB.

Javier has always had some control issues, averaging 3.7 walks per nine innings for his career. He’s an easy fade candidate in this matchup after walking 10 batters over the course of his last three starts. 

Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m backing Toronto in this series finale:

The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays have split their first two matchups this week, but I’m backing the Jays to win this series finale on Thursday afternoon.

Righty Kevin Gausman is on the mound for the Jays, and he’s coming off a strong outing – eight innings of one-run ball – in a win over the New York Yankees.

Overall, Gausman has a 3.63 ERA this season, and since the All-Star break he’s posted a 2.59 ERA, allowing just 37 hits in 59.0 innings of work. 

That could spell trouble for a Houston team that is just 25th in MLB in batting average and dead last in runs scored over the last 30 days.

Houston has righty Cristian Javier (4.43 ERA) on the mound in this game, but he has to take on a Jays offense that is No. 6 in batting average and No. 9 in runs scored over that same stretch. For the entire 2025 season, the Jays rank sixth in runs scored, first in batting average and second in OPS.

Javier hasn’t been bad in 2025, but he also hasn’t pitched deep into all of his outings. 

I love Gausman and the Jays at home, where they are 46-25 straight up in the 2025 season. 

Pick: Jays Moneyline (-158 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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