Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Astros-Blue Jays, Mets-Phillies on Thursday)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Thursday, Sept. 11, including a pick for the Astros-Blue Jays series finale.

The Toronto Blue Jays are favored with starting pitcher Kevin Gausman on the mound. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The MLB playoffs are coming fast, and there are battles for the final wild card spots in both the American and National League that could get some more clarity over the weekend.

Some early-week series are coming to an end on Thursday while a few weekend matchups are just beginning, and I’m betting on action all over the slate on Sept. 11.

One of my favorite bets happens to be in the Houston Astros-Toronto Blue Jays matchup, but it's not the only one that I’ve circled for today’s action.

Here’s a breakdown of each bet, the latest odds and my analysis for a smaller slate in MLB. 

MLB Best Bets for Thursday,  Sept. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-158) vs. Houston Astros
• New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 (-104)

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-158) vs. Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays have split their first two matchups this week, but I’m backing the Jays to win this series finale on Thursday afternoon.

Righty Kevin Gausman is on the mound for the Jays, and he’s coming off a strong outing – eight innings of one-run ball – in a win over the New York Yankees.

Overall, Gausman has a 3.63 ERA this season, and since the All-Star break he’s posted a 2.59 ERA, allowing just 37 hits in 59.0 innings of work. 

That could spell trouble for a Houston team that is just 25th in MLB in batting average and dead last in runs scored over the last 30 days.

Houston has righty Cristian Javier (4.43 ERA) on the mound in this game, but he has to take on a Jays offense that is No. 6 in batting average and No. 9 in runs scored over that same stretch. For the entire 2025 season, the Jays rank sixth in runs scored, first in batting average and second in OPS.

Javier hasn’t been bad in 2025, but he also hasn’t pitched deep into all of his outings. 

I love Gausman and the Jays at home, where they are 46-25 straight up in the 2025 season. 

New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 (-104)

Can the New York Mets snap their losing streak and avoid a sweep on Thursday night?

New York has lost five games in a row and is in danger of losing a wild card spot in the NL heading into its series finale with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philly has outscored the Mets 21-6 in this series, putting up nine and 11 runs in the last two games. These teams have combined to clear 8.5 runs in two of the three games in this series, and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair on Thursday.

Let’s start with the Phillies side of things.

Not only has the offense been humming in this series, but it ranks third in OPS and fourth in runs scored over the last 30 days. The Phils also rocked Mets starter David Peterson in his last outing against them, scoring five runs in four innings. 

As for their pitching, the Phillies may have a little cause for concern on Thursday. Jesus Luzardo (4.01 ERA) has been much worse at home (4.50 ERA) than he has been on the road (3.55 ERA) this season.

Plus, in his last outing against the Mets, Luzardo gave up four runs on five hits in just 4.0 innings of work. 

New York’s offense is a little tough to trust in this matchup, but I don’t have a problem with fading Peterson, who has put together a 6.69 ERA in seven starts since the beginning of August. The lefty has an expected ERA of just 4.27 this season, which ranks in the 35th percentile amongst MLB pitchers.

This series finale should feature a ton of offensive fireworks, so let’s bet the OVER with this total still set at a reasonable 8.5.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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