Astros vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 24

The Orioles are favored at home in this series finale.

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers is a great prop target on Sunday. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have won three games in a row to open up a three-game lead in the AL West standings, but can they knock off the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday?

The O’s are 11 games under .500 and well out of the playoff picture in the AL, but they have arguably their best pitcher – lefty Trevor Rogers – on the mound for this series finale on Sunday.

Rogers enters this start with a 1.41 ERA, and he should have a pretty big advantage over Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti (6.94 ERA) in this matchup.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Sunday afternoon’s matchup. 

Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros +1.5 (-171)
• Orioles -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

• Astros: +118
• Orioles: -144

Total

• 9 (Over -118/Under -103)

Astros vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Houston: Spencer Arrighetti (1-4, 6.94 ERA)
• Baltimore: Trevor Rogers (6-2, 1.41 ERA)

Astros vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 24
• Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MASN and SCHN
• Astros record: 72-58
• Orioles record: 59-70

Astros vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

• Trevor Rogers UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160)

Through 12 starts this season, Rogers has given up two or fewer earned runs in 11 of them, allowing no more than three runs in a start all season.

The Orioles lefty has a 1.41 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 0.79 WHIP and has struck out 67 batters in 76.1 innings of work. He’s thrown at least six innings in every start this month, allowing no more than one run. 

Houston is seventh in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitching, but I can’t fade Rogers, who has reached the sixth inning in all but one start this season. In all 11 of those outings that he made it to the sixth inning, he allowed two or fewer runs.

He’s a steal at this number on Sunday. 

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m backing the O’s in this series finale: 

Baltimore Orioles lefty Trevor Rogers has looked like his former All-Star self in the 2025 season, posting a 1.41 ERA in 12 starts while leading the under .500 O’s to a 9-3 record when he’s on the mound.

Rogers has given up two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 12 starts, and he’s been elite in the month of August, posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.51 FIP while allowing just 20 hits in 28.0 innings of work.

He should have a massive advantage over Spencer Arrighetti and the Houston Astros on Sunday, as Arrighetti has a 6.94 ERA in five starts this season.

Houston is just 1-4 in those games, and Arrighetti has given up exactly five runs in three of his five starts. He’s taken Houston out of games early, and I expect Rogers to outduel him on Sunday.

As long as the Baltimore bullpen can hang on late – and it may not have to go long since Rogers has thrown seven or more innings in three starts this month – I like the O’s to win outright in this series finale. 

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-144 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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