Astros vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 20

The Tigers are underdogs at home in this series finale.

The Detroit Tigers are home dogs on Wednesday afternoon. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have been shut out in back-to-back games, but they remain 1.5 games up on the Seattle Mariners in the AL West heading into their series finale on Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit is running away with the AL Central, opening up a nine-game lead after back-to-back wins over Houston. Now, the Tigers are looking to complete a three-game sweep with righty Charlie Morton (5.20 ERA) on the mound on Wednesday.

Morton will take on one of his former teams and lefty Framber Valdez (3.01 ERA), who has been solid in the 2025 season but is struggling in the month of August.

Can Valdez turn things around to save Houston from being swept? The best betting sites seem to think so, as the Astros have been set as road favorites on Wednesday afternoon.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Aug. 20.   

Astros vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+133)
• Tigers +1.5 (-163)

Moneyline

• Astros: -127
• Tigers: +104

Total

• 8.5 (Over -107/Under -114)

Astros vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Houston: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.01 ERA)
• Detroit: Charlie Morton (8-10, 5.20 ERA)

Astros vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 20
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, FDSDET, SCHN
• Astros record: 69-57
• Tigers record: 75-53

Astros vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

• Framber Valdez OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-160)

This season, Valdez has a WHIP of 1.17, allowing 129 hits in 152.1 innings of work. However, he’s struggled a bit as of late, allowing seven or more hits in five of his seven outings since July 1 (including all three of his starts in August).

This is a tough matchup for the veteran left-hander, as the Tigers are hitting .260 against left-handed pitching in 2025 – the sixth-best mark in MLB.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Valdez go over this line again, especially if he works into the sixth inning for the 11th outing in a row. 

Astros vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Detroit may be undervalued in this series finale: 

The Tigers are looking to sweep the Astros on Wednesday afternoon, but they’re set as home underdogs with Charlie Morton on the mound.

The Astros will counter with lefty ace Framber Valdez, but Valdez has struggled a bit in the month of August, allowing four or more runs in three straight starts. Houston has lost each of Valdez’s last four outings.

Meanwhile, Morton has posted a 3.86 ERA in three outings in a Tigers uniform, and the veteran has really turned things around since the start of June, posting a 3.95 ERA in 13 outings. Prior to that, Morton had a 7.09 ERA through the month of May.

I don’t mind taking a shot on the Tigers on the run line here with Valdez struggling. Houston has not scored a run in this series, losing 10-0 and 1-0, so another four-run showing from the lefty would likely spell trouble for the AL West leader. 

Plus, the Tigers are 8-5 on the run line as home dogs this season, and they’ve been rolling as of late, winning eight of their last 10 games.

Detroit should at least hang around in this series finale on Wednesday. 

Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-163 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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