Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Champions League Round of 16

Cem Yolbulan | Mar 11, 2025

Kylian Mbappé (left) and Antoine Griezmann (right) headline Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid. / IMAGO/DeFodi Images

The two Madrid giants square off against each other for the seventh time since the start of 2024. Real Madrid has won two of the six matchups, including last week’s first leg win, while Atletico won only once. On Wednesday, not only do they have to win, but they also have to overcome the 2-1 deficit from the first leg. 

The fixture at Santiago Bernabeu last week went as expected. It was a tight battle with cautious approaches from both managers. There wasn’t too much space to be exploited from either side, resulting in few goal scoring opportunities. Atletico finished the game with 0.2 expected goals (xG) while Real had 0.68. The individual brilliance of Julian Alvarez got Atletico on the scoreboard while Brahim Diaz won the game for Real with his spectacular dribbling and finishing magic. 

Atletico suffered a disappointing defeat at Getafe last week in a game they were leading after 88 minutes of action. An Angel Correa red card, followed by two quick Getafe goals in succession pushed Atletico down the third-place in La Liga. 

The Champions League fixture against their bitter rivals provides Atletico an excellent opportunity to bounce back. Since Diego Simeone took over as Atletico’s manager in 2011, he has failed to eliminate Real Madrid in the Champions League. In the four previous occasions, including in the Champions League final, Atletico came up short. Whether Simeone has a trick up his sleeve this time around to pull off the comeback win and qualify for the quarter-finals remains to be seen. 

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

To Qualify: 

Atletico Madrid: +260
Real Madrid: -340

Moneyline:

Atletico Madrid: +155
Draw: +250
Real Madrid: +170

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -148
Under 2.5: +122

Over 3.5: +182
Under 3.5: -230

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -174
No: +136

Half-Time Result:

Atletico Madrid: +195
Draw: +130
Real Madrid: +200

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 12, 2025
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
• How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, Vix, Fubo

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Prediction and Pick

The fact that only a goal separates the two sides, we can expect more of the same in the return leg. Any Atletico win with a one-goal margin sends the game to extra time, so they will not come out guns blazing. Diego Simeone will continue to prioritize compact and disciplined defense that will try to not give the likes of Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, and Kylian Mbappe space. He knows very well that pushing hard too early could turn the game in Real’s favor.

Atletico will understandably think that they can at least send the game to extra time if they don’t concede a goal. With Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez, and super sub Alexander Sorloth, Atletico will think that they have enough individual talent to score one on Real, especially considering star goalkeeper Thibaut Courtouis and their best defender Antonio Rudiger missed their La Liga game and are questionable to play on Wednesday. 

Even if they play, Real’s defense has been shaky all season, allowing 16 goals in 11 Champions League games. 

At the same time, Atletico isn’t the most dangerous team attacking against a set defense. They may struggle to create a ton of goal scoring opportunities. How well they convert in the few chances they get will determine whether they can get anything out of this tie. 

Once again, set pieces will be one of the most important elements of the Atletico attack. Simeone will be happy to go into the final third of the game at 0-0 and look to create chances through corner kicks and free kicks. With his physical style and aerial prowess, Sorloth could be the difference maker for Atletico. 

Real Madrid should be the significant favorites thanks to their advantage from the first leg. Carlo Ancelotti, who is a master of these elimination games, will likely deploy a pragmatist approach,  defending deep and absorbing Atletico’s pressure.  

This will likely result in a low-scoring affair barring a surprise early goal from either side. 

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+122)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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